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PDC World Darts Championship: Betting tips, preview and predictions for the Sky Sports-televised major at the Ally Pally
The William Hill World Darts Championship takes place at the Alexandra Palace from December 15-January 3, live on Sky Sports, and our tipster Chris Hammer brings you his preview and best bets.
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Darts betting tips: World Championship
5pts Michael van Gerwen to win the world title at 9/2 (General)
1pt each-way Michael Smith to win at 25/1 (General 1/2, 1, 2)
1pt each-way Nathan Aspinall at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/3, 1, 2)
1.5pts Joe Cullen to win the second quarter at 7/1 (Bet Victor)
0.5pts Chris Dobey to win the fourth quarter 20/1 (General)
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The PDC World Darts Championship is almost here to own the festive sporting calendar and thankfully this time we’ll have the usual hair-raising atmosphere back to replace last year’s canned crowd noise.
There will be seven of the 10 previous champions in action including the returning Raymond van Barneveld who finds himself in the bottom quarter of the draw that remarkably features five of them, while there are plenty of other storylines and sub-plots for the Alexandra Palace faithful to enjoy.
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Just for starters, Steve Beaton makes a record 31st consecutive appearance in a World Championship against history-maker Fallen Sherrock, the legendary and ageless 67-year-old Paul Lim is back for a 25th attempt and is in a quarter that includes the second-youngest ever participant Fabian Schmutzler (16), while the Australian father and son duo of Ray and Ky Smith are also in the same section.
Who is best value from the ‘Big Four’
Gerwyn Price is bidding to become the fourth player to retain the PDC world title behind Phil Taylor, Gary Anderson and Adrian Lewis but obviously this time he’ll have to do it with a deafening mix of cheers and jeers.
Last year he was able to come through several nail-biting last set deciders in the early rounds without boos to put him off before producing his showstopping best towards the very end to lift the Sid Waddell Trophy and become world number one.
Indeed, peaking at the right time has become almost a trademark ability of the Iceman over the past couple of seasons and as long as he avoids any early scares against the likes of Kim Huybrechts, Stephen Bunting, Dirk van Duijvenbode or, dare I say it, Fallon Sherrock, then we can surely expect him to get stronger the deeper he progresses.
He’s a worthy favourite at a best of 4/1 and we know he can also defy boos to win the big titles but considering he’s ‘only’ added one major to his 2021 title tally of five, there has been enough signs this season to suggest value could lie elsewhere.
Price, whose solitary major this season came at the recent Grand Slam of Darts where he again came to the fore at the business end of the tournament to swot a tired Peter Wright aside, told us in a pre-tournament interview that he ranks Jonny Clayton as his biggest rival even though the Ferret is fourth favourite at 7/1.
Clayton has without doubt enjoyed the best year out of anyone by scooping up four TV titles among his haul of six in a career-launching 2021, including the Premier League, World Grand Prix, Masters and World Series, while his seasonal average of 98.49 is third best on tour behind MVG (99.34) and Price (99.23).
His whole aura on the oche has changed dramatically since this time last year where he hadn’t previously won an individual TV title while his all-round statistics over the past 12 months have been nothing short of phenomenal.
He did look out of sorts at the recent Players Championship Finals – albeit the cold, drafty conditions seemed to affect everyone – and he was soundly beaten by Price at the Grand Slam, so he will be looking for some friendly revenge should they meet in the quarter-finals.
Clayton has never gone beyond round three at the Ally Pally before but he’s obviously never played here with this kind of winners’ mentality.
As for 13/2 third favourite Wright, well he’s put himself right back into contention with a return to form just when his sparkling form of the summer was beginning to turn into a distant memory.
Snakebite was untouchable en route to landing his maiden World Matchplay back in July but after picking up a fifth title of the season as month later, he lost his touch and didn’t really come close to challenging in any event until his remarkable comeback against Michael Smith got him into the Grand Slam final.
He was mentally shot for the final a few hours later but then went and won the Players Championship Finals a week later despite Ryan Searle’s heroics and now he returns to the scene of his finest hour two years ago.
His average of 97.59 is the fifth highest overall but it would have been higher had it not been for his worrying spell of form.
Michael van Gerwen is Price’s fourth favourite for glory but more importantly the bookies have him second at 4/1 to pick up his fourth world title despite a complete major drought in 2021.
Statistically he’s just about at the top for averages and produced some mesmerising displays on plenty of occasions to put him there or thereabouts but ultimately he’s fallen short at key moments and has only managed to reach one major final at the European Championship, where he lost to Rob Cross.
He did pick up the televised Nordic Darts Masters against Fallon Sherrock and a floor title towards the very end of the season but his fear factor has certainly diminished even though everyone knows his A-game is still probably too much for his main rivals. He’s just not doing it enough times under pressure.
Yet.
Now I’ve never traditionally backed MVG but he has a fairly decent quarter which has the prospect of early meetings with future majors winners in Chris Dobey, Luke Humphries or indeed Dave Chisnall and he’ll probably end it with a clash against a former world champion in Gary Anderson or Rob Cross.
If he can get that A game going consistently then by the time the business end of the tournament comes, you’d think is renewed confidence could take him to top gear as he bids to stamp his authority on the game again.
Here, I’ll work my way through each quarter in search of value for the title and/or to reach the semi-finals…
Quarter One
- (1) Gerwyn Price v Ritchie Edhouse/Lihao Wen
- (32) Kim Huybrechts v Steve Beaton/Fallon Sherrock
- (16) Stephen Bunting v Ross Smith/Jeff Smith
- (17) Dirk van Duijvenbode v Jermaine Wattimena/Boris Koltsov
- (8) Jonny Clayton v Keane Barry/Royden Lam
- (25) Gabriel Clemens v Lewy Williams/Toyokazu Shibata
- (9) Michael Smith v Ron Meulenkamp/Lisa Ashton
- (24) Glen Durrant v Willie O'Connor/Danny Lauby
Most people will be expecting a Gerwyn Price v Jonny Clayton quarter-final but just imagine the narrative if Fallon Sherrock beats the world champion in round three?
Not only would it see her send more shockwaves through the sport than ever before, but it would move her high in the rankings to guarantee a Tour Card and surely rubber stamp her inclusion in next year’s Premier League.
Nevertheless, Price won’t be fearing the Queen of the Palace or anyone in this tournament – let alone this top section – but Jonny Clayton could come unstuck against Michael Smith in round four.
Bully Boy has a fairly comfortable passage until this point and he’s in a much better place than this time last year when his negative body language on the oche contributed to him slumping to an awful defeat to Jason Lowe that summed up the season.
It was a watershed moment for him, however, and since then he seems to have sorted out the mental side of his game in the sense that he’s not visibly getting bogged down by bad patches and also keep his cool when on a hot streak.
This helped him maintain a fantastic rhythm of ruthless darts against Michael van Gerwen in a best-of-31 leg match at the Grand Slam of Darts as he picked up his first major ranking victory over the Dutchman and reached the semi-finals, where only Wright’s Lazarus style comeback denied him. Even during that eight-leg losing streak, he kept his head and didn’t play too badly at all. He didn’t choke.
Smith has also picked up a couple of floor titles this season and while that’s a completely different kind of pressure, both meant a lot to him and gave him that winning mentality he appeared to have lost.
If Clayton’s vulnerability in the last couple of tournaments continues, then the 2018 runner-up can take advantage and give himself a shot at Price.
As you'll see in my staking plan, rather than back him at 13/2 to come through the quarter, I'm instead going to show a little more faith and back him outright at 28/1 each-way, when you consider he'd arguably be favourite to beat any of his prospective semi-final opponents below.
Quarter Two
- (4) James Wade v Maik Kuivenhoven/Ky Smith
- (29) Vincent van der Voort v Adam Hunt/Boris Krcmar
- (13) Joe Cullen v Ted Evetts/Jim Williams
- (20) Simon Whitlock v Martijn Kleermaker/John Michael
- (5) Dimitri Van den Bergh v Florian Hempel/Martin Schindler
- (28) Devon Petersen v Jamie Hughes/Raymond Smith
- (12) Krzysztof Ratajski v Steve Lennon/Madars Razma
- (21) Mervyn King v Ryan Joyce Roman Benecky
James Wade is the top seed in this quarter but not only is he second favourite to come through it at 9/2, but he’s a massive 50/1 outsider for the title.
It’s one of the few majors he’s never won despite the fact his timing expertise should really come to the fore in a long set-play format– after all, he has won the World Grand Prix twice during the early years of his career.
The UK Open champion not gone beyond the quarter-finals since 2013 but he will fancy his chances in this wide open section that includes Dimitri Van den Bergh (3/1), Joe Cullen (7/1) and Krzysztof Ratajski (7/1).
The likes of Mervyn King, Simon Whitlock and Ryan Joyce are all spoilers as well as Germany’s Martin Schindler (40/1) who has the game to do damage if he can handle the big occasion like he’s never done before.
But I feel this could be the perfect opportunity for Cullen, who is also an eye-catching 66/1 to go the distance.
The Bradford man has enjoyed a superb season which has seen him win a couple of titles and also reach a major semi-final at the European Championship.
His record at the Ally Pally was abysmal with 10 successive early exits and only two wins to his name - but he finally seemed to crack his curse last year when defeating Jonny Clayton en route to the fourth round, where he came within the width of a wire on the bullseye from stunning Michael van Gerwen in one of the matches of the tournament.
Nobody will faze him in this quarter and if he gets going, the crowd will be playing to the Rockstar’s tune.
Quarter Three
- (2) Peter Wright v Ryan Meikle/Fabian Schmutzler
- (31) Damon Heta v Luke Woodhouse/James Wilson
- (15) Ryan Searle v William Borland/Bradley Brooks
- (18) Danny Noppert v Jason Heaver/Juan Francisco Rodriguez
- (7) Jose de Sousa v Jason Lowe/Daniel Larsson
- (26) Mensur Suljovic v Alan Soutar/Diogo Portela
- (10) Nathan Aspinall v Joe Murnan/Paul Lim
- (23) Brendan Dolan v Callan Rydz/Yuki Yamada
On the surface, this seems like a fairly good quarter for Peter Wright, who is a very warm 15/8 favourite to come through it.
He does have the additional pressure of defending £500,000 of ranking money that he won two years ago but even so, a player of his experience and quality should be able to put that to the back of his mind.
His biggest threat could come as early as the fourth round against Ryan Searle, who ran him so close in a dramatic climax to the Players Championship Finals and Snakebite even branded him ‘the future of darts’.
The quietly spoken Somerset thrower revelled in the atmosphere as he produced a stirring comeback that Wright needed every ounce of his character to defy in a deciding leg and it’s runs like this which can prove to be a springboard moment.
Searle has enjoyed two superb runs to fourth round at the Ally Pally, which helped him kick-start his ranking rise and he’s maintained the momentum this season by picking up a title and reaching a further three finals to help him move into the top 16.
His poor eyesight adds to his popularity and seems to take nothing away from his accuracy at the oche.
Searle, whose poor eyesight adds to his popularity but takes nothing from his accuracy at the oche, would need to get past the dangerous Danny Noppert before he potentially gets another crack at Wright over best of seven sets.
I fancy the other quarter-finalist to be Nathan Aspinall, who is 15/2 to reach the semis for the third time in four appearances.
The only time he failed was last year but it’s fair to say he’s one of the players who particularly struggled without the energy of the supporters to draw on throughout the behind-closed doors era.
He got off to a very slow start this season but recovered to grind his way into the Premier League play-offs and then reach the World Matchplay quarter-finals, where he couldn’t get going against MVG in a sound 16-9 defeat.
However this winter his averages have rocketed and during the European Championship he soared above 100 on three occasions including an agonising 11-10 loss to the Dutchman in the semi-finals.
In the last three Pro Tour events of the season he reached one final – losing to MVG again with a 103 average noless – and recorded eight 100+ averages in his 12 games so he’s certainly trending in the right direction. Even at the Players Championship Finals, he averaged 100 in round one before being edged out 6-4 in a high-quality encounter by Rob Cross.
In best-of-nine sets, he has the game to really test Wright more than most in the world could, while you’d make him favourite to beat anyone else – even Searle.
The Stockport star did Premier League double over Snakebite this season and has won seven of their 11 encounters overall since 2019 while he's produced high quality darts than the likes of Jose de Sousa, Mensur Suljovic and Brendan Dolan over the past few months.
He's a big price at 33/1 to land his first big title since the UK Open in 2019 and even against MVG, he'd stand a very strong chance.
Quarter Four
- (3) Michael van Gerwen v Chas Barstow/John Norman Jnr
- (30) Chris Dobey v Rusty-Jake Rodriguez/Ben Robb
- (14) Dave Chisnall v Darius Labanauskas/Charles Losper
- (19) Luke Humphries v Rowby-John Rodriguez/Nick Kenny
- (6) Gary Anderson v Adrian Lewis/Matt Campbell
- (27) Ian White v Scott Mitchell/Chris Landman
- (11) Rob Cross v Raymond van Barneveld/Lourence Ilagan
- (22) Daryl Gurney v Ricky Evans/Nitin Kumar
I’ve already made my case for Michael van Gerwen becoming champion for a fourth time and ending his season-long major title drought in emphatic style.
I honestly think if you’d asked him at the start of the year if he’d swap every major for the worlds then he’d have bitten your hand off considering he’s not lifted this trophy since January 2019.
As already alluded to, my main concern is the ‘off day’ that he throws in a lot more frequently than he ever did during his peak era of dominance – and whether it rears its head at all during the next month. Sometimes his off day is as good as most player’s B game or even A- game but it is enough to think about a potential saver in this section who could catch him cold.
The longer the format gets, the less likely it’ll be unless someone is able to conjure up the kind of magic Dave Chisnall produced to beat him 5-0 with an average of 107.34 in last year’s unforgettable quarter-final.
Chizzy is a prospective fourth-round opponent but on this season’s form he’ll struggle to get past Luke Humphries, who will surely be a major champion one day.
But potentially waiting in the third round for MVG over seven sets is the dangerous Chris Dobey.
His seasonal average of 97.41 is only bettered by the big four and Jose de Sousa and while he’s not demonstrated that enough times on TV, it shows he is capable of serious levels. He won his first ever PDC title after such a long wait back in July and made that two in early November, just to underline how his confidence is growing.
His stage results at the Grand Slam and Players Championship Finals were admittedly poor, but he did average 104 in the latter during a very strange defeat to William O’Connor.
The Northumberland star has reached the fourth round twice before and this arena seems to bring the best out of him and he’s got the experience now to handle the occasion. If he beats MVG then he’d be on the crest of a wave for anyone else and therefore might just be worth a small saver in the quarter market.
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