Tennis betting tips: WTA Finals preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: WTA Finals

4pts Aryna Sabalenka to win the title at 9/5 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)

2pts Elena Rybakina to qualify for the semi-finals at 13/8 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

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WTA Finals

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (indoor hard)

The best female players in the world come together for the season-ending WTA Finals this week.

They do so, controversially, in Riyadh – where else in 2024?

In totally unrelated news (ahem), there’s a massive US$15million prize pot on offer with more than $5million going to an unbeaten champion.

That sentence prompts us to mention the format – this is an event at which you can lose one or even two matches and still emerge with the trophy.

The eight players are split into two groups of four with the top two in each progressing to the knockout semi-finals.

They will be playing indoors at the King Saud University Sports Arena where a GreenSet Grand Prix court (rated medium by the ITF’s court pace rating system) has been laid. At time of writing, little has been said about the surface speed by the players but previous WTA Finals have tended to edge towards the slower side of medium.

The ball in use will be the Wilson US Open Regular Duty, one Iga Swiatek famously criticised at the 2022 US Open for being too light and difficult to control – before going on to win the title.

One other thing worth mentioning before we look at the players in detail is the fact that the year-end world number one spot is in play.

As was the case last year, it’s a straight battle between Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, with the latter sitting in the box seat.

She’ll clinch top spot if she wins her three group matches or if she reaches the final. Swiatek needs the title and for Sabalenka to miss her goals.

Any way, that’s the basics wrapped up. Let’s move onto the players…

PURPLE GROUP

Aryna Sabalenka

• Best odds: Title – 9/5; Group – 3/4; Qualify - 4/11
• Race position: 1st
• 2024 win-loss record: 54-12
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 9-4
• 2024 titles: 4 – US Open, Australian Open, Wuhan, Cincinnati
• WTA Finals record: 6-6 (23 SF, 22 RU, 21 Gp)
• Recent form: W Wuhan, QF Beijing, W US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Paolini – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 2-1; 2024: 0-0
  Rybakina – overall: 6-3; indoor hard 0-0; all hard: 4-3; 2024: 1-1
  Zheng – overall: 4-0; indoor hard 0-0; all hard: 4-0; 2024: 3-0

Boasts huge power and arrives in Riyadh having won 20 of her last 21 matches – certainly the best player in the second half of the season. Added the US Open title to her Australian Open crown so has also been the best on hardcourts in 2024 too. A strong record against the elite – she’s won her last six against top-10 players – bodes well for this event, one at which she will have the added motivation of finishing as the year-end number one.

Jasmine Paolini

• Odds: Title – 25/1; Group – 9/1; Qualify - 13/8
• Race position: 4th
• 2024 win-loss record: 39-18
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 2-3
• 2024 titles: 1 - Dubai
• WTA Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: QF Wuhan, L32 Beijing, L16 US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Sabalenka – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard 1-2; 2024: 0-0
  Rybakina – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2024: 1-1
  Zheng – overall: 0-3; indoor hard 0-0; all hard: 0-2; 2024: 0-1

Made back-to-back Grand Slam finals in the summer, efforts which essentially booked her ticket to Riyadh, but that seems a long time ago now. Recent form has been patchy and she’s now lost 18 matches in 2024, the most of anyone in this field. Holds a 4-19 win-loss record against the other players here which suggests she may struggle to compete given the level of opposition. Must also deal with a packed schedule as she’s also playing doubles here. Still, the likeable Italian will be buoyed by the doubts surrounding some of her group rivals.

Elena Rybakina

• Odds: Title – 9/1; Group – 9/2; Qualify – 13/8
• Race position: 5th
• 2024 win-loss record: 41-9
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 3-2
• 2024 titles: 3 – Stuttgart, Abu Dhabi, Brisbane
• WTA Finals record: 1-2 (23 Gp)
• Recent form: L64 US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Sabalenka – overall: 3-6; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 3-4; 2024: 1-1
  Paolini – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1; 2024: 1-1
  Zheng – overall: 2-0; indoor hard 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2024: 0-0

Started the year looking capable of creating a ‘Big Three’ with Sabalenka and Swiatek. However, injuries and illnesses have hit hard, a back problem being the latest to trouble the former Wimbledon champion. Much is unknown about Rybakina in terms of this tournament – she’s played just three matches since Wimbledon, winning one, and hasn’t played at all since the US Open. Did arrive early to practise though and if she is fully fit, her game – led by one of the best serves in the sport – is capable of doing real damage.

Qinwen Zheng

• Odds: Title – 8/1; Group – 10/3; Qualify – 10/11
• Race position: 7th
• 2024 win-loss record: 47-16
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 3-6
• 2024 titles: 3 – Olympics, Tokyo, Palermo
• WTA Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: W Tokyo, RU Wuhan, SF Beijing, QF US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Sabalenka - overall: 0-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-4; 2024: 0-3
  Paolini – overall: 3-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-0; 2024: 1-0
  Rybakina – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1; 2024: 0-0

The tour’s ace leader would like the courts to play fast – she may well need that to be the case as the Australian Open runner-up is just 5-14 against this field and has never beaten two of her group opponents. The good news is form is decent. Qinwen went 12-2 on the Asian swing so confidence will be up, but is there now too much tennis in her legs?

ORANGE GROUP

Iga Swiatek

• Odds: Title – 3/1; Group – 11/8; Qualify – 4/9
• Race position: 2nd
• 2024 win-loss record: 59-8
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 9-4
• 2024 titles: 5 – French Open, Rome, Madrid, Indian Wells, Doha
• WTA Finals record: 9-3 (23 W, 22 SF, 21 Gp)
• Recent form: QF US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Gauff – overall: 11-1; indoor hard 1-0; all hard: 6-1; 2024: 2-0
  Pegula – overall: 6-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 5-4; 2024: 0-1
  Krejcikova – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 1-2; 2024: 0-0

The defending champion is the only player in the field with a winning record at this event. She’s also won the most matches (59) and lost the fewest (8) this season. Swiatek has a tour-leading five titles to her name in 2024 but the last of those came at Roland Garros in June, while she’s not played at all since the US Open. Arrived early in Riyadh with new coach Wim Fissette, who has replaced Tomasz Wiktorowski in recent weeks. Looks eager but may be rusty, while new coaching ideas could be tough to implement against the very best.

Coco Gauff

• Odds: Title – 6/1; Group – 13/8; Qualify – 4/7
• Race position: 3rd
• 2024 win-loss record: 50-16
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 3-6
• 2024 titles: 2 – Beijing, Auckland
• WTA Finals record: 2-5 (23 SF, 22 Gp)
• Recent form: SF Wuhan, W Beijing, L16 US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Swiatek – overall: 1-11; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 1-6; 2024: 0-2
  Pegula – overall: 1-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-3; 2024: 0-1
  Krejcikova – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0

Form is good, Gauff impressing in Asia, suggesting recent coaching changes have had an effect – Brad Gilbert is no longer involved, with Matt Daly joining the team. Boasts the best return stats of those in Riyadh but, on serve, double faults remain a concern, although not as much as her record against her group opponents – she’s a woeful 2-16. Her top-10 record in 2024 is also worrying – she’s won only three of nine such matches.

Jessica Pegula

• Odds: Title – 9/1; Group – 10/3; Qualify – 11/10
• Race position: 6th
• 2024 win-loss record: 39-14
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 2-2
• 2024 titles: 2 – Toronto, Berlin
• WTA Finals record: 4-4 (23 RU, 22 Gp)
• Recent form: L16 Wuhan, L16 Beijing, RU US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Swiatek – overall: 4-6; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 4-5; 2024: 1-0
  Gauff – overall: 4-1; indoor hard 0-0; all hard: 3-0; 2024: 1-0
  Krejcikova – overall: 1-1; indoor hard 0-0; all hard: 1-1; 2024: 0-0

Pegula shone under the summer sun in North America, going 15-2 in that hardcourt swing, a run which finished with defeat in the US Open final. However, the American has struggled since, doing little in Asia and she will need to step up her if she is to reproduce the sort of tennis which brought so much success a few months ago.

Brabora Krejcikova

• Odds: Title – 33/1; Group – 14/1; Qualify – 9/4
• Race position: 8th
• 2024 win-loss record: 19-14
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 2-1
• 2024 titles: 1 - Wimbledon
• WTA Finals record: 0-3 (21 Gp)
• Recent form: QF Ningbo, L32 Wuhan, L64 Beijing, L64 US Open
• Record v group opponents:
  Swiatek – overall: 2-2; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 2-1; 2024: 0-0
  Gauff – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
  Pegula – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-1; 2024: 0-0

Krejcikova is here as a result of her surprise Wimbledon win – she didn’t finish in the top eight in the rankings which immediately suggests she might struggle. There’s also been recent concern. The Czech has struggled for wins of late (won two of here last seven) and was last seen withdrawing in Ningbo due to a back injury, only returning to practice on Sunday. That said, Krejcikova showed at Wimbledon she’s a big-match player and it’s notable that none of her group foes have a winning record against her. If she is able to find her best tennis, which includes plenty of variety, she could contend. Seems unlikely though.

VERDICT

Throughout the season, I’ve tended to look for the value further down the outright market but taking on the favourite here looks risky business.

ARYNA SABALENKA has been the best hardcourt player of the year, winning both Slams played on the surface.

She’s got the best form coming in (20 wins from her last 21 matches) and has a strong record against her fellow elite players.

Even if the court does end up playing rather sluggish, Sabalenka has the power to cut through it both on the serve and off the ground. She’s regularly played well on clay in recent years so that wouldn’t be a killer for any bet.

There are plenty of doubts surrounding many of her rivals, of whom Iga Swiatek is considered the biggest threat.

That’s the right call but backing a player who hasn’t played in two months and has also changed coach in that period makes little appeal, even though we know what she is capable of.

Qinwen Zheng and Coco Gauff both bring decent form in from the Asian swing but both have poor records against the best, with worrying head-to-heads against their group opponents. Gauff, in particular, looks skinny in the outright market as the third favourite.

In terms of the group betting, I believe the Purple Group has potential.

Sabalenka should win this – three wins would guarantee her the year-end world number one spot – but behind her there will be a real battle.

Zheng is the player the bookies favour due to her Asian form but she’s a combined 0-6 against Sabalenka and Rybakina.

Jasmine Paolini doesn’t have the biggest weapons and hasn’t recently displayed the form which took her to the French Open and Wimbledon finals, so I’m drawn to ELENA RYBAKINA.

There’s no doubt there’s risk involved with backing the Kazakh – she’s not played much at all since Wimbledon.

But unlike Zheng and Paolini, she has previous experience of this WTA Finals format and she’s yet to lose a set to the former.

With little matchplay, it was encouraging to see her arrive early in Riyadh for plenty of practice and she looks to have been drawn into a decent group.

I’m not sure it’s controversial to suggest that Rybakina’s ceiling is higher than that of everyone bar Sabalenka and Swiatek, and she’s managed to trouble them in the past too, winning three of seven on a hardcourt against Sabalenka, while she was the only player to beat Swiatek on clay this season.

Yes, risk is involved, but getting 13/8 about Rybakina qualifying out of this group looks a little big to me. She could land that by winning just one match.

• The action gets under way on Saturday, with the first singles match taking place at 1500 GMT. You can watch it all live in the UK on Sky Sports.

Posted at 1440 GMT on 31/10/24

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