Tennis betting tips: Team profiles, preview and best bets for Billie Jean King Cup Finals

Tennis betting tips: Billie Jean King Cup Finals

1.5pts e.w. Italy at 8/1 (General 1/3 1,2)

0.75pts e.w. Great Britain at 14/1 (General 1/3 1,2)

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Billie Jean King Cup Finals

• Malaga, Spain (indoor hard)

The Billie Jean King Cup Finals get under way on Wednesday, although you may struggle to realise.

Such is the ridiculous nature of the tennis calendar, that the tournament begins while the ATP Finals are ongoing, while its last two days will overlap with the start of the Davis Cup Finals – the equivalent men’s event.

That’s a real shame for fans of both the women’s game and team tennis, which often produces some classic matches with players playing for their nation, not simply personal gain.

For those who do tune in – the action is being televised on Tennis Channel International, with the BBC also showing Great Britain’s matches – you’ll see a new format in operation this year.

Gone are round-robin groups and we’re back to a straight knockout draw with four of the 12 teams receiving a first-round bye.

The draw bracket is already set so we can plot a potential route to the final for each team – more on that below.

As for the Malaga venue, it’s a Greenset court which has been laid, while the balls are Wilson US Open Regular Duty. Spanish captain Anabel Medina has described conditions as “a bit fast”, but tournament director Conchita Martinez insists: “The conditions will not change from last year. The players were quite comfortable and happy then.”

Finally, the ties themselves. The format sees each team’s top-ranked player face off after the two second-ranked players meet. A potentially decisive doubles rubber is held last.

With all the essentials out of the way, let’s take a look at the 12 teams involved (player rankings in brackets are singles unless indicated by an asterisk)…

Australia

• Best odds: 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
• Team: Ajla Tomljanovic (84), Olivia Gadecki (90), Kimberly Birrell (112), Daria Saville (118), Ellen Perez (15*)

With no top-80 player, the Aussies look to be lacking singles quality. Ellen Perez is a fine doubles player, who recently played at the WTA Finals. The good news is they are on the easier side of the draw but hard to see the 2022 runners-up challenging.

Canada

• Best odds: 5/1 (General)
• Team: Leylah Fernandez (31), Rebecca Marino (115), Marina Stakusic (128), Gabriela Dabrowski (5*)

Following the withdrawal of former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu, a lot rests on the shoulders of Leylah Fernandez, who will lead the team in singles and likely play alongside Gabriela Dabrowski, a recent winner at the WTA Finals, in doubles. There looks little wriggle room but it was a similar side which won the trophy last season so they certainly have a chance.

Czechia

• Best odds: 7/2 (General)
• Team: Karolina Muchova (22), Linda Noskova (26), Marie Bouzkova (45), Katerina Siniakova (1*)

Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova is absent but the Czechs still boast a strong side. They have two top-30 singles players, plus the world doubles number one. Their top-ranked singles player, Karolina Muchova, has been in good form, winning 14 of her last 17 matches, although she picked up an injury in Nangbo last month. Few teams have this strength in depth and the Czechs should contend.

Great Britain

• Best odds: 14/1 (General)
• Team: Katie Boulter (23), Emma Raducanu (58), Harriet Dart (87), Heather Watson (138), Olivia Nicholls (39*)

Claimed an impressive win in France to qualify for these Finals and have landed on the better side of the draw. Katie Boulter is now knocking on the door of the world’s top 20, while former US Open champion Emma Raducanu is very capable on her day. However, she hasn’t played since September due to a foot injury. Not as strong in doubles as many of their Malaga rivals.

Germany

• Best odds: 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
• Team: Laura Siegemund (21*), Jule Niemeier (92), Tatjana Maria (100), Eva Lys (131), Anna-Lena Friedsam (499)

With no singles players in the world’s top 80, the Germans look a little light in this company. Still, there are players capable of an upset and Jule Niemeier and Tatjana Maria will both be happy if reports of quick conditions are true.

Italy

• Best odds: 8/1 (General)
• Team: Jasmine Paolini (4), Elisabetta Cocciaretto (54), Lucia Bronzetti (78), Sara Errani (7*), Martina Trevisan (127)

Boast the best doubles team in Malaga with Paolini and Errani being a regular doubles team on the WTA Tour – they recently played at the WTA Finals. Paolini is also a singles star so she could well lead her nation to victory this week – she did her best in this event last year, winning three of four singles as the Italians made the final. The worry would be she also played singles and doubles at those WTA Finals in Riyadh last week so there’s plenty of tennis in her legs.

Japan

• Best odds: 50/1 (General)
• Team: Moyuka Uchijima (56), Ena Shibahara (41*), Nao Hibino (152), Eri Hozumi (45*), Shuko Aoyama (47*)

Lots of doubles quality in this team but they are missing singles sparkle following the withdrawal of former world number one Naomi Osaka. Throw in a tough draw which means they will face Italy if they beat Romania in round one, and it’s hard to see Japan being around come the business end of proceedings.

Poland

• Best odds: 9/2 (General)
• Team: Iga Swiatek (2), Magdalena Frech (24), Magda Linette (38), Maja Chwalinska (165), Katarzyna Kawa (258)

Have the best singles line-up by ranking – both players are in the world’s top 25 – and it includes Iga Swiatek, who will confident of beating all-comers in Malaga. That said, she wasn’t at her best at the recent WTA Finals. Magda Linette is good singles back-up and could also have a key role to play in doubles. Definite title potential.

Romania

• Best odds: 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
• Team: Jaqueline Adina Cristian (73), Ana Bogdan (113), Alexia Anca Todoni (117), Elena Gabriela Ruse (129), Monica Niculescu (33*)

Without the top-ranked Sorana Cirstea and the experience of former world number one Simona Halep, the Romanians look up against it. Their top-ranked singles player, Jaqueline Adina Cristian, prefers the clay, although at least Ana Bogdan claimed a fine win over Elina Svitolina to help Romania reach this stage. Plenty more upsets will be needed in Malaga though.

Slovakia

• Best odds: 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor)
• Team: Rebecca Sramkova (43), Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (107), Viktoria Hruncakova (242), Tereza Mihalikova (42*)

No great strength in depth but the Slovaks will be encouraged by the form of Sramkova, who arrives off the back of a run to the final of the WTA event in Jiujiang. She’s actually won 17 of her last 21 matches, albeit they weren’t all at tour level. Still, if there’s to be a breakout star at this tournament, maybe it could be her.

Spain

• Best odds: 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
• Team: Paula Badosa (11), Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (55), Nuria Parrizas Diaz (98), Sara Sorribes Tormo (46*), Marina Bassols Ribera (154)

Paula Badosa has bounced back impressively from her injury problems but will she get enough support here? She may have to play doubles given Spain’s plan of fielding Sorribes Tormo and Cristina Bucsa in that format has been scuppered – the latter is out injured. That looks a big blow to a team which will have home support in Malaga but also what looks the toughest draw in the competition, opening against Poland before facing Czechia and then, possibly in the semis, Italy.

USA

• Best odds: 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
• Team: Danielle Collins (10), Peyton Stearns (48), Ashlyn Krueger (65), Taylor Townsend (9*), Caroline Dolehide (12*)

It says much that the US are so high in the betting despite the fact that three top-10 singles players – Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro – are all missing from this team. Danielle Collins is the one top-10 star who is present but the no 2 position looks relatively weak. Townsend and Dolehide are both in the top 15 in doubles so should make a good team but will the second singles weakness prove their downfall?

VERDICT

To reach a betting conclusion, you need to have a good look at the draw.

To me, it looks as if the top half is the easier section. The bookies agree with three of the top five in the market being in opposite half.

Most firms are offering each-way betting with a third of the odds available for a place in the final.

The prices suggest it will be defending champion Canada and joint favourites USA meeting in the semi-finals.

However, both teams look too short to me and, of the alternatives, I believe GREAT BRITAIN have the best chance.

They should be too strong for Germany in round one and victory would set up a clash with the Canadians.

Leylah Fernandez carried them far last season but their price looks weighted too heavily on that effort 12 months ago. On paper, it’s hard to look at the team and conclude ‘this is a really strong line-up’.

Katie Boulter is ranked higher than Fernandez and is in good form having made the final in Hong Kong recently, while Emma Raducanu has big potential as the second singles player.

The Americans may prove a tougher obstacle to overcome but they could be an awful lot stronger with Danielle Collins not in the same class as the absent Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula.

They have a weakness in the second singles spot and while their doubles line-up should be good, that’s not given as Taylor Townsend and Caroline Dolehide are not regular partners on the tour.

GB came within a tie-break of the 2022 final and are worth a small bet here at 14/1.

More realistic winners are ITALY.

They have landed on the other side of the draw but look to have a good path to the semis – a first-round bye meaning they will meet one of the two rank outsiders, Japan or Romania, in the last eight.

Any semi-final would be against hosts Spain, Poland or Czechia. The latter two are a shorter price than Italy, yet only one can make the last four and so the Italians looks the value here at 8/1.

They have the second-highest ranked singles player in the field in Jasmine Paolini, while their doubles team of Paolini and Sara Errani looks the best on show – the pair have been regular partners on the tour and qualified for the recent WTA Finals.

Yes, there’s an obvious weakness in the second singles spot but Martina Trevisan has raised her game in this competition before, playing a big part in last season’s run to the final, winning four of her five singles. Italy also have Elisabetta Cocciaretto to consider, a player ranked only just outside the top 50.

The Poles and Czechs are certainly capable of beating Italy but are far from bombproof so, given the prices, a bet on Italy is the call.

Posted at 1430 GMT on 11/11/24

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