Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Paris Masters preview

Tennis betting tips: Rolex Paris Masters

3pts Jannik Sinner at 12/5 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)

1pt e.w. Grigor Dimitrov at 20/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Tommy Paul at 150/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)

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Rolex Paris Masters

• Paris, France (indoor hard)

Three money-match losers in as many weeks are threatening to undermine what had been looking like being a decent season for this column.

Such results certainly dent confidence and, sadly, now it’s time for the Paris Masters.

I’ve been writing these previews for more than 20 years now and I can’t remember ever tipping the winner at the Bercy Arena.

In fairness, it’s been a notoriously volatile event over the years, largely due to its position in the calendar.

The big guns are obliged to play but have often arrived in Paris with their eyes on a bigger prize, namely the season-ending ATP Finals. This year, that event begins seven days after the Paris final.

That’s reflected by the fact that Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray won this title just twice between them.

The opposite end of that scale shows Tim Henman, Tomas Berdych, Robin Soderling and David Ferrer all won their one and only Masters 1000 title in Paris.

Subsequently, my betting approach here has usually been to try to seek out a potential big-priced winner/finalist or two, although in recent times Novak Djokovic has made something of a mockery of my theory of taking on the market leaders – the Serb has won this title seven times.

That said, across the last seven years, this tournament has been won by Jack Sock, Karen Khachanov and Holger Rune, all at massive prices.

Djokovic is absent this year and, subsequently, Carlos Alcaraz is chalked up as the favourite.

Frankly, that’s a surprise to me and JANNIK SINNER may well be worth backing.

The Italian is the best player in the world right now and arrives in Paris having won 24 of his last 25 matches, if you include the recent 6 Kings Slam event from which Sinner took home a whopping US$6million.

Alcaraz is the only man to beat Sinner since Montreal in early August and that only happened via a final-set tie-break which Sinner had led 3-0.

Revenge was taken in that 6 Kings final in Riyadh and I’m not really getting why Alcaraz is the market leader here.

It’s probably got something to do potential paths to the final. Sinner’s does look a little tricky with Ben Shelton – runner-up in Basel on Sunday - possibly first up.

Still, as already pointed out, Sinner has beaten all-comers of late and has won the last four against Shelton, all in straight sets.

Alex Zverev is the biggest threat, in seeding terms, in this half but he’s not in the greatest of form with concerns remaining about the lung issue he revealed a few weeks back.

Taylor Fritz is a possible quarter-final foe for Sinner but there must be some scar tissue left from his crushing US Open final loss to the Italian last month.

The one possible worry for Sinner backers is that original theory I mentioned – that the eyes are on a different prize. Yet there’s a week’s gap between the two events and I suspect Sinner will be keen to arrive in Turin having continued his highly-impressive run of form.

A player playing so well is crying out to be backed at 12/5, in my opinion.

Still, I do want to test out the old theory in some way and I will do so by trying to find the finalist in the bottom half of the draw where I feel Alcaraz is worth taking on.

This has never been his best time of year and the fact remains that he has never reached an ATP final indoors.

I’m keen to side with a couple of players who have strong motivation this week.

Time is running out for GRIGOR DIMITROV and TOMMY PAUL to reach those ATP Finals.

Both are admittedly up against it but they also know that the title here could well take them to Turin – for Dimitrov, a final appearance may be enough.

Let’s start with the Bulgarian.

He made the final on the GreenSet surface here 12 months ago and was also a semi-finalist in 2019.

He should be happy to be in a quarter featuring Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev, who, in theory, are the biggest tests lying in wait prior to the semi-finals.

Dimitrov recently made the final in Stockholm (one of our string of near-misses) and last week lost a tight one to Tomas Machac in Vienna.

A rematch could occur here and I was a little tempted by the Czech here given he’s a 250/1 shot. He played well in Asia and it took eventual champion Jack Draper to beat him in Vienna.

I wouldn’t put people off at that price but I’m with Dimitrov here and can’t justify two bets in the section.

Instead, my big-priced pick this week is Paul, who looks too big at 150s.

The American was the man who pipped Dimitrov to that Stockholm title and played really well.

After a dash to Vienna, he lost in the first round but the quick turnaround can explain that and I genuinely feel he’ll be better off for several days’ rest if he’s going to challenge for this prize.

Adrian Mannarino, Flavio Cobolli and Casper Ruud is a good-looking path to the last eight where Paul could then face Alcaraz.

And the good news is that the American has regularly troubled the world number two in their six-match series, winning twice (both on a hardcourt).

In addition, he was a tie-break away from winning one of the others, while at Wimbledon earlier this year he was a set and a break up before losing.

If Alcaraz is one of those looking ahead to Turin, for which he qualified long ago, then the quarter-finals could well be the time when he checks out mentally.

For me, Paul looks overpriced at 150/1 and I will back him accordingly.

Preview published at 1644 GMT on 27/10/24

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