Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals Thursday best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily best bets

0.5pt Taylor Fritz to beat Alex de Minaur and both players to win a set at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt under 8.5 games in the first set of Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev at 7/2 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

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Taylor Fritz v Alex de Minaur (1300 GMT)

Fritz looks the right favourite here but the price gap – 4/9 v 21/10 may be too big.

De Minaur leads the head-to-head record 5-3 and it’s 5-2 on hardcourts, including 2-0 on indoor hard. The Australian also won their only meeting this season, at January’s United Cup.

I accept the argument that these may not be the most relevant statistics surrounding this contest but they do show that De Minaur has caused Fritz plenty of problems in the past.

The question to ponder for anyone looking to get with the Aussie is how well is he actually playing?

He’s lost both matches in straight sets so far and while he didn’t play badly against Jannik Sinner or Daniil Medvedev, neither did he sparkle. To be fair, his opponents played very well on both occasions.

Fritz has beaten a below-par Medvedev and, like most of late, was well beaten by Sinner, so we can’t really draw huge conclusions about his form either.

With all that in mind, I feel De Minaur is worth considering at some level here.

He’s won a set in every match these two have ever played and enters this one knowing he must win in straight sets to stand any chance of qualifying for the semi-finals.

Still, it’s my belief Fritz is playing the better tennis at the moment, while conditions are also in his favour, and De Minaur hasn’t beaten a top-10 player since early June – well before the injury which disrupted his season.

I think a small bet on Fritz to win this 2-1 may be worth a try at 3/1, although if you are in agreement, it’s also worth considering Fritz to win from behind at 11/2 (bet365) as De Minaur will be out of semi-final contention if he loses the first set and his head could drop.

One final stat worth mentioning is that there has been a tie-break in six of the pair’s eight meetings – bet365 offer even money about another on Thursday.

Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev (1930 GMT)

This has been a rivalry which has completely turned on its head – one which helps shows just how much Sinner has improved in the past year or so.

Medvedev won the first six matches of their series but in the last 14 months, they’ve met a further eight times, with Sinner triumphant in seven of them. The odd one out was on the grass of Wimbledon; on hardcourts it’s 7-0 in that period.

Those matches include a three-set win here in Turin, a match during which Sinner held serve throughout.

That’s become something of a theme too – in four of those seven hardcourt matches in last 14 months, Medvedev has failed to break serve, which is somewhat worrying given his own service numbers have dipped.

He’s unlikely to get any respite here either, with Sinner having been excellent on the return of serve in his two matches so far during which he’s looked every inch the world number one.

Medvedev put a sluggish performance against Taylor Fritz behind him to produce a fine display in defeating Alex de Minaur on Tuesday.

If he plays as well again, he may have a chance but it’s still hard to see how Sinner won’t dominate on serve and he will likely be able to overpower Medvedev from the back of the court.

Of course, another factor we need to consider here is that Sinner may already have qualified for the semi-finals before stepping onto the court, although one suspects he’ll want to nail down top spot in the group when he does. It could well be that only one set will be needed to achieve that goal.

With such unusual circumstances applying to this match, it’s one I don’t really want to be taking a short price in.

Instead, I’m going to take a punt on the continuation of what is becoming something of a trend.

In their last three hardcourt meetings – Shanghai, New York and Miami - Sinner has won the first set by the following scorelines: 6-1, 6-2, 6-1.

You can get 10/3 about under 8.5 games in the opener here.

With Sinner having dominated the head-to-head of late, you have to wonder how much belief there is in Medvedev right now and it would be no great surprise were the frustration, which bubbled to the surface during and after his loss to Fritz, return.

In short, a day for small bets at big prices.

Posted at 0820 GMT on 14/11/24

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