Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals Friday best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily best bets

1pt Alex Zverev to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 11/10 (General)

1.5pts Casper Ruud to beat Andrey Rublev at 13/10 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)

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Casper Ruud v Andrey Rublev (1930 GMT)

We’ve got the usual final-group-day problem when it comes to previewing this match – the outcome of the afternoon contest will certainly affect the mindset of at least one of these players coming in.

Rublev will already be out unless Zverev wins the first match in straight sets. If the German does him that favour, he’ll then need to win this one 2-0.

If he’s already been eliminated, you wonder how high the motivation will be yet at time of writing, he’s the slight favourite (that may not be the case come first ball).

I believe that’s largely due to a head-to-head record which is in his favour at 5-2.

However, dig a little deeper and you find, surprisingly, that four of Rublev’s wins have come on clay. On a hardcourt, it’s 2-1 Ruud with the Norwegian 2-0 up on indoor hard. Both of those matches took place on this very court.

Ruud has played well so far in Turin, too, beating an under-the-weather Alcaraz with a solid display from the backcourt and then testing Zverev, a match which featured only one break of serve.

Rublev has again been found wanting at this level with his two losses taking his tournament record to 4-11. He appears to lack true belief against the elite.

Maybe he’ll thrive if the shackles are off – I remember one of his wins coming that way in London in 2020 when he was already out – but I can’t see any value in his current price and am happy to back Ruud to come through.

Alex Zverev v Carlos Alcaraz (1300 GMT)

Nothing has been decided in the Newcombe Group heading into its final round of matches and with the way Friday’s contests have been priced up, it could prove to be a cracking day.

Alcaraz has been ill and that clearly affected him against Casper Ruud in his opening match when the Spaniard suffered a surprise defeat.

However, he bounced back impressively on Wednesday with victory over Andrey Rublev. Another win will likely be needed, although even a straight-sets loss could still see Alcaraz reach the semi-finals, such is the situation in the group.

I like the underdog in this one with Zverev having won two out of two so far, his serve looking simply superb.

He’s found the target with 74% of his first serves and when they have gone in, he’s won 84% of the points. Perhaps more impressive is his percentage of second-serve points won, which stands at 72%.

Given those numbers, you probably won’t be surprised that he’s yet to face a break point in Turin.

For the record, Alcaraz has won 74% of points behind his first serve and 59% behind his second at the tournament so far.

His route to victory would appear to be to attack the Zverev second serve.

Across their 10-match series, which is level at 5-5, Alcaraz has won 57% of points on Zverev’s second delivery.

However, that’s an area where Zverev has been very solid of late. He’s been hitting great speeds in the quick conditions, even on that second serve, and I remain confident in my pre-tournament view that he can top this group.

Another important aspect for Alcaraz will be to keep hold of his own deal, something he’s managed to do often against Zverev.

He’s gone unbroken in four of their last eight meetings and so I can certainly see why the bookies are making the Spaniard the favourite.

But his illness remains a worry and while he managed to hit a high enough level against Rublev the other day, this looks a much sterner challenge, against a player full of confidence.

It’s also worth pointing out that Zverev is 4-2 up on hardcourts, winning both such indoor meetings. One of those was here 12 months ago and I’d say he’s playing better now than he was then, while Alcaraz isn’t in such good form.

It’s Zverev for me in these conditions, given his form, and I’m happy to back him at odds-against.

Posted at 1730 GMT on 14/11/24

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