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Rugby league: Free betting tips for Super League and the NRL from Ian Millward
Former Super League winner Ian Millward brings you his best bets for this weekend's Super League and NRL action.
Super League: Super 8s
Hull v Wakefield (+10) – Thursday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports Arena & Main Event
It’s the last throw of the dice for Wakefield as they look to claim a top-four spot (this is the penultimate round of Super 8s games) but Hull should just be too good here.
They’ve won their last eight in a row against Wakefield, who trail their opponents by one point – if Hull win this one and Wigan also claim two points, it’s game over for Wakefield.
Home-ground advantage is massive and Hull have a very impressive home record v Trinity.
I think this will be a high-scoring game – history shows this fixture produces a lot of points. So far this year, Hull have two wins over Wakefield, the margins being four and 22 points.
There’s a lot of pressure on Wakefield and it will be interesting to see how they cope.
Hull are basically at full strength with Gareth Ellis and Liam Watts both included, two big forwards. It’s a big occasion for them and they can win and cover.
Leeds v Salford (+12) – Friday, 2000 BST
Salford can technically still make the top four but for me they are gone and a 12-point start in this one won’t be enough.
Leeds have big players back. Rob Burrow returns; Joel Moon and Brett Ferres too.
The Rhinos have won both games v Salford in 2017 and in Super League history have an unbelievable record home and away against them – Salford have never beaten Leeds at Headingley.
Since losing Todd Carney and Michael Dobson and moving Gareth O’Brien to six, they’ve lacked a threat at full-back.
I think Leeds will be way too strong and will win and cover.
St Helens v Huddersfield (+12) – Friday, 2000 BST
Both teams are in pretty poor form with each having won only one of their last four.
Saints scraped in last week (against Wakefield) and they’ve had one win and draw In two tight games against the Giants this season.
Huddersfield have got two front-rowers out and Kyle Amor returns to the front row for Saints so that could be a key area.
St Helens should be too good at home but they have struggled with points-scoring all season and Huddersfield do have a good record in recent history against them.
With Huddersfield’s season effectively over – they have nothing to play for as they can’t make the top four and secured their place in next year’s Super League ages ago – St Helens should have more focus and in front of their home crowd I’d expect them to win and cover the start.
Wigan v Castleford (+8) – Sunday, 1500 BST
I’ve said for a period of time that I see Wigan getting into a real rhythm. They’ve been accumulating wins and I’ve still got them down to make the Grand Final as they look to defend their title.
I expect Wigan to win for a couple of reasons. They need to win to preserve their top-four spot and with Cas losing Luke Gale to appendix surgery, I think the visitors may be a bit disorganised.
Cas have won both games against Wigan this year but previous to that, the Warriors had a good record against them.
I’ve been impressed with the way Cas have been able to hold their intensity despite their position in the table (they lead by some distance and booked a top-four spot weeks ago).
However, with Wigan getting into the rhythm and handling a tricky situation well against Hull last week I expect them to win and wrap up a top-four spot. I truly believe that if they win this week they will make the Super League Grand Final.
Super League: The Qualifiers
Leigh v Halifax (+22) – Friday, 2000 BST
It’s a big week in the Qualifiers where plenty is still at stake. Two wins from here could be enough to secure Super League status for 2018 for Leigh – and with London next up they should get those – but I think they will actually end up in the Million Pound Game against Widnes.
That’s because I expect Catalans to win their last two games to secure third place in the table – I make them a special bet to beat Hull KR this week (see below) and think they will also beat Widnes next weekend.
As far as this game is concerned, Leigh should win at home against a team they have a very good record against from their time in the Championship.
Halifax are without a win in the Qualifiers and have struggled to score points despite being competitive in games.
A win is all Leigh need and I expect them to get it and cover too.
Hull KR (+6) v Catalans – Friday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports Arena
As already stated, I like Catalans a lot here.
Hull KR will have spent three or four days celebrating securing their Super League place, which they deserve to.
They have won five in a row which is an outstanding record but now they have four players out.
Catalans have won their last two and are showing better form. Paul Aiton, their hooker, returns and he creates a lot of space around the ruck area.
I expect them to win and then beat Widnes next week too. Catalans to win and cover looks a good bet.
Widnes v London (+16) – Saturday, 1515 BST, Sky Sports Arena & Main Event
Rhys Hanbury is out for Widnes and they struggled when he was missing earlier in the season.
Still, they should still have too much for London on home soil.
London have shown an ability to score points and been very competitive, running Catalans close in a two-point loss and suffering a similar defeat to Warrington.
They’ve done a fantastic job but Widnes have more to play for here.
Featherstone (+20) v Warrington – Sunday, 1500 BST
Warrington have stayed up but this week saw the announcement that Tony Smith is to part ways with the club.
That’s a tough call by the club but both parties must have felt he couldn’t get any more juice from the team.
They struggled all year. Only behind the scenes would you know why. He had a fantastic run at Warrington and they’ve won a lot of silverware under him. It’s definitely been a success story overall.
As for this game, I expect Featherstone to cover. It’s not a good place to go if you are not ready to give 100 per cent commitment and I can’t see that happening with Warrington’s season over.
Featherstone have the ability to score points but also leak a lot so I can see total points being over the line here – there could easily be 50, 60-plus in the game.
However, the best bet for me would be simply for Featherstone to cover the start.
NRL: Elimination semi-finals
Brisbane v Penrith (+6) – Friday, 1055 BST, Premier Sports
Brisbane have a problem with Darius Boyd out but can Penrith take advantage? They remain a frustrating team at times – as much as they won last week against Manly, they gave them an opportunity.
Brisbane are at home and have shown a great ability to bounce back from defeat by winning the following week and they can do so again having been edged out by the Sydney Roosters last week. They are the better team.
In a high-scoring game, I expect the Broncos to win and cover.
Parramatta v North Queensland (+8) – Saturday, 1040 BST, Premier Sports
Parramatta come off an impressive loss, if you know what I mean, to minor premiers Melbourne Storm (18-16) but that may have a taken a lot out of the players.
North Queensland, who are injury-riddled, enjoyed a golden-point, overtime win against Cronulla to knock out last year’s premiers. They have a very good defence but their problem is they don’t score a lot of points with Johnathan Thurston out.
I’m going to go for North Queensland to cover and I’d also consider total points being under as I’d expect a low-scoring game.
Recommended bets: Super League
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