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Free horse racing tips: Best Bets for the Cheltenham November Meeting
Andrew McLaren looks ahead to the November Meeting at Cheltenham this weekend with two recommended bets, including one in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Weekend View: November 16 and 17
1pt win Il Ridoto in the 2.20 Cheltenham Saturday at 7/1 (Bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Third Time Lucki in the 2.20 Cheltenham Sunday at 16/1 (Bet365, SkyBet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
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It had been an uncharacteristically slow start to the season for Paul Nicholls with just four winners from 37 runners in October (11% strike rate) compared to 13 from 52 (25%) during that same month the previous year, but any concerns about the form of 14-time champion trainer's runners were blown away at the weekend with six winners from 14 runners (43%) across Saturday and Sunday, highlighted by a 125/1 five-timer at Wincanton on Badger Beers day.
It's understandable therefore that confidence is growing in Ginny’s Destiny ahead of Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup. A course and distance winner who went down fighting to Grey Dawning in an epic Turners at The Festival and he is following a tried and tested route for Nicholls after winning this race last year with Stage Star on his comeback from an identical mark of 155.
The ground would be a bit of a concern for him though having progressed through the ranks on an easier surface last season – it’s currently ‘Good’ at Cheltenham with a dry week forecast – as would him coming here without a prep run. You can bet Nicholls will have done everything he can at home to get him ready for this after his intended comeback at Newton Abbot was abandoned but plenty of the yard’s runners have been needing their first run back and, unlike Stage Star who has an excellent record fresh, this horse is yet to win on his seasonal reappearance, including when weakening into seventh on his debut for the yard on good ground at Cheltenham last year.
That’s enough for me to look beyond him at around the 3/1 mark, and I’m drawn to the Nicholls second string in IL RIDOTO. A regular in these big Cheltenham handicaps, he was third in this race on his comeback last season from a mark of 144 before going down narrowly to Fugitif back here in the December Gold Cup off 143, so he’s lurking on a dangerous mark now rated 138 with Nicholls confirming in his on Monday that Freddie Gingell will ride, taking an extra 3lb off his back. He’ll be racing from 3lb out of the handicap if current top-weight Protektorat lines up, which seems unlikely given the ground conditions, but Gingell’s claim would offset that anyway.
It feels like he’s been around for ages having made his debut over fences as a four-year-old but he’s still only seven so should be in the prime of his life now and, crucially, he blew the cobwebs off with a pipe opener at Chepstow last month. Il Ridoto improved 6lb on the Timeform ratings for his first run last season and I’m expecting another bold show from him back at his favourite track on Saturday with that run under his belt.
Imagine has been the big antepost mover in the build-up having been available at 20/1 when the market opened and is no bigger than 6/1 now. He makes his debut for Harry Derham, who has a quite remarkable 67% strike rate with new recruits running in handicaps this season (four winners from six runners), but he is another who would probably prefer an easier surface with his best efforts for Gordon Elliott coming on soft/heavy. He could improve for it of course having never raced on good ground, but all the juice has been squeezed out of his price now.
In Excelsis Deo was another on the shortlist for Harry Fry. He’s still quite unexposed over this distance having been mainly campaigned over two miles as a chaser but he improved as he stepped up in trip last season, shaping well when a never nearer fifth in The Plate before landing the Silver Trophy on good ground back here in April. He tends to be held up and but can make mistakes, so his jumping will need to sharpen up, or I can see the likes of Ginny’s Destiny and Il Ridoto getting away from him if they get into a good rhythm out on the front end at a track that usually favours prominent racers.
The Greatwood is the highlight on Sunday but, to be honest, I’m struggling to recommend a bet in the big handicap hurdle at this early stage, with Dysart Enos greatly respected at the head of the market. Yet to taste defeat in six starts under Rules, it’s been more about style than substance over hurdles for her so far but her defeat of Golden Ace in the Aintree bumper that has thrown up stacks of subsequent winners is still fresh in the memory and she’s a worthy favourite with the ground conditions sure to suit this speedy mare. I’m in no rush to back her at 10/3 this far out, but I’m in no rush to take her on either.
Hopefully it will be a good day for Fergal O’Brien though, as I can’t resist backing the talented THIRD TIME LUCKI making his debut for the yard in the Southam Handicap Chase. Sold from Dan Skelton for £190,000, he was rated 153 in his pomp when knocking heads with the likes of Edwardstone in graded novice chases and although he’s not quite the force of old, he showed the fire still burns when winning at Sandown last year before an excellent fourth in the Grand Annual, and his effort there can be marked up given he was the only one of the first seven to get involved from the rear.
That added to his terrific record at this track – his record over fences at Cheltenham reads 114 – and he's another who will really enjoy bouncing off the sound surface this weekend. He’s usually dropped out and delivered late, but he should get the race run to suit with Matata hopefully there to take them along at a good gallop, and with Jonathan Burke already booked, I’d be amazed if his new trainer didn’t have him primed for his stable debut at a meeting he often targets.
I was surprised to see him priced up as the 16/1 outsider of the field with so much in his favour in a race which could cut up quite a bit by Sunday afternoon, and hopefully he can make it first time lucky for Fergal O'Brien.
Preview posted at 1105 GMT on 12/11/2024
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