Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Randox Grand National meeting 2024 day one

The Verdict: Thursday, April 11

1pt win Blow Your Wad in 1.45 Aintree at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt win Bravemansgame in 2.55 Aintree at 10/1 (General)

1pt win Heltenham in 4.40 Aintree at 8/1 (General)

1pt win Black Gerry in 4.40 Aintree at 25/1 (General)

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Take two stayers in rattling Red Rum

There is loads of pace on in the Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase over two miles with Irish Blaze, Whiskeywealth, Dancing On My Own, Mackenberg, Unexpected Party, Path D’Oroux, Triple Trade, Sans Bruit and Guy all likely to be prominent judging by recent running styles.

I want stamina on my side and only two runners in the field ran over a trip around two-and-a-half miles last time; HELTENHAM and BLACK GERRY, and both are worth backing.

Heltenham is on a real roll after back-to-back wins at Newbury, on both occasions winning over 2m4f after travelling through his wins powerfully, and he looks well worth a go at two miles for the first time since he was novice hurdling three years ago.

The handicapper has raised him 12lb for his two wins, but the unexposed at the trip angle, combined with his rich vein of form, makes him too tempting to ignore on ground he will love.

Black Gerry is a much bigger price, but I can’t resist him at 25/1 after an encouraging run at Plumpton last time out.

That too was over the extended 2m3f, but he looked much more like his old self after a poor season and there’s no doubting he’s well treated now off 134 given he’s a winner off a 5lb higher mark.

The last time he ran over a trip like this – 2m1f at Ascot a year ago – he won by five lengths from a mark of 132, and he’s going to love a strong gallop at this distance.

The Verdict: Back HELTENHAM and BLACK GERRY in the 4.40 Aintree

Brave call in the Bowl

Day one of the Randox Grand National Festival and plenty to ponder for punters; just how testing will the ground be? Can you trust runners from the Nicky Henderson stable? How well will each Cheltenham runner come out of the Festival?

All of those questions apply in the Grade 1 William Hill Bowl Chase, the day one highlight featuring Gold Cup horses and more. The most interesting ‘and more’ contenders in this are Henderson’s Shishkin and Emmet Mullins’ Corbetts Cross, but whether the latter should be as short as 7/2 is a point of contention. It was a bad renewal of the National Hunt Chase and the novice is up against genuine quality in this of the like he simply hasn’t run against before.

Gerri Colombe is an understandable favourite, but he was trained for the Gold Cup and he is vulnerable back at this trip on a flat track and there’s no juice in Shishkin’s price of 3/1 considering the stable form and the lingering doubt that he can be tricky at the start.

That leads me to Paul Nicholls’ BRAVEMANSGAME who looks the bet in the race at 10/1.

He hasn’t won this season and these wouldn’t be his optimum ground conditions, but I think the latter point has been overplayed by the market and in response to the former, he might not have done, but he’s been running consistently well.

Second in the Betfair Chase and the King George, he has been operating not far off his peak and he ran well when fifth in the Gold Cup, simply not quite seeing out the trip after being bang in contention two from home.

With that consistency in mind the addition of first-time cheekpieces is fascinating, as Nicholls is an absolute master at squeezing more out of his Grade 1 staying chasers by applying headgear at the right moment.

He got four more Grade 1 wins out of Silviniaco Conti when applying headgear, including in this race, and three more Grade 1 wins out of Clan Des Obeaux, who won this race twice in first-time cheekpieces and first-time blinkers.

It’s worth remembering that now the sheepskin is on Bravemansgame, and it would be no surprise to see a season’s best from the nine-year-old with Nicholls going for his seventh win in the contest.

The Verdict: Back BRAVEMANSGAME in the 2.55 Aintree

Taking a Blow in the Manifesto

The trainers’ championship will be a theme of the week and main protagonists Dan Skelton and Nicholls go head-to-head in the very first race as Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny meet again in the Grade 1 Close Brothers Manifesto Novices’ Chase.

Nicholls is 0/15 in this race since its 2009 inception with horses like Al Ferof, Dodging Bullets, Frodon, Modus, Cyrname, Hitman, Pic D’Orhy and Stage Star all getting beat, a surprising number of Ditcheat A-listers, and there is a suspicion that Ginny’s Destiny might be better at three miles at this level.

Taking on Grey Dawning isn’t as appealing, but he did have a hard race at Cheltenham and he too could be better over three next season, so I’m happy to have a go at the pair with BLOW YOUR WAD.

Tom Lacey’s horse has to improve again to trouble the big two, but he could do considering his chasing efforts on flat tracks alone, his wins at Kempton on Boxing Day and in February his standout performances this season.

He beat a good yardstick in Tahmuras last time when travelling all over him and the cheekpieces seemed to help him in that regard, while it was no surprise he missed Cheltenham to come here fresh.

That could be a major advantage after Grey Dawning’s Turners battle with Ginny’s Destiny and at 14/1 I’m prepared to pay to find out if he can make the necessary leap forward.

The Verdict: Back BLOW YOUR WAD in the 1.45 Aintree

Preview posted at 1555 GMT on 10/04/24

More Grand National tips and features

• Horse-by-horse guide
• Statistical analysis and trends
• What the pedigrees say
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• 'Jumpability' ratings and insight
• Key numbers behind the National
• Simon Holt on the remarkable Kitty's Light
• Record of Gold Cup horses
• Heavy ground Grand Nationals
• National runners who love soft ground
• Grand National Quiz
• Andrew Asquith's Weekend View
• Alex Hammond Blog

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