NFL betting tips: Week 9 best bets including Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

NFL betting tips: Week 9

2pts Denver @ Baltimore – over 46.5 total match points at 10/11 (General)

2pts Detroit Lions (-2.5) to beat the Green Bay Packers at 10/11 (General)

2pts Washington Commanders (-3.5) to beat the New York Giants at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Washington Commanders (-13.5) to beat the New York Giants at 29/10 (bet365)

1pt Washington (-3.5) & Detroit (-2.5) both to win at 5/2 (General)

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Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

• Sunday, 1800 GMT - live on Sky Sports NFL

In Baltimore’s eight games this season, the ‘over’ has landed seven times and it’s a trend I can see continuing this weekend.

As the second-highest scoring team in the NFL to this point, the case for Baltimore scoring plenty of points on home soil is a simple one. They average 30.3 points per game and the offence fronted by Lamar Jackson and the unstoppable Derrick Henry is steamrolling NFL defences left, right and centre.

Baltimore should uphold their end of the bargain, but what about their opposition?

Denver haven’t been all over the headlines so far this year, but they probably deserve more attention than they’re currently receiving. With rookie quarterback Bo Nix at the helm, the Broncos have navigated to a 5-2 record and they comfortably won their last two games, over the Saints and Panthers respectively.

To put into context the scale of Nix’s achievement (already) in 2024, he’s now the first ever Denver quarterback to win five games in his rookie season. It’s a feat even the great John Elway didn’t accomplish.

Nix wasn’t the most sure-fire of the rookie passers drafted back in April, but he’s looked very assured of late and Broncos fans must be delighted with his early career trajectory.

Denver have scored 28+ points in three of their last four games and Baltimore have some clear vulnerabilities. They’re a Super Bowl contender for sure, but the Ravens need to stitch up their defence if they’re going to be playing football in February.

They’ve allowed an average of 26.1 points per game this season (seventh-worst in the NFL) and therefore there’s little reason why Denver won’t see some offensive success.

This one shapes up like an early Sunday shootout in Maryland. Take the over.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

• Sunday, 1800 GMT

The bookmakers have Washington as 3.5-point favourites this weekend, but you’d be hard pressed finding anyone who regards the Commanders as only 3.5 points better than the New York Giants.

With rookie Jayden Daniels leading from the very front, Washington have been tremendous in 2024. They lead the NFC East with a healthy 6-2 record and head to New Jersey following back-to-back wins.

The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their six wins, while the Giants have struggled to keep things close in their recent performances. They’ve suffered defeats in each of their last three games and they’ve lost by at least eight points in all of them. It’s a miserable record and not one that looks likely to improve on Sunday.

It’s tough to see how the Giants will be able to deal with Washington’s ground game. New York allow over 140 rushing yards per game (sixth-most in the NFL) and, more worryingly, no one allows more yards (5.4) per carry.

Teams with effective rushing attacks are kryptonite to New York and you only have to go back two weeks for clear evidence. In a similar divisional match-up also hosted at MetLife Stadium, the Eagles were rampant, rushing for 269 yards in a blowout 28-3 victory.

Yes, the Eagles are the second-most prolific rushing team in the NFL as they average 165.9 yards per game, but sadly for New York, Washington are the third-most prolific and they only average 0.1 yards per game less than the Eagles.

As far as match-ups go, this is a recipe for disaster for the Giants. Washington are in prime position to cover the spread once again, and the possibility of a Philadelphia-esque blowout is worth a look.

Detroit Lions @ Green Back Packers

• Sunday, 2125 GMT - live on Sky Sports NFL

The city of Detroit, they’re starting to believe.

The 6-1 Lions are the team to watch at the moment and they have the opportunity to make another big statement on Sunday as they head to Lambeau.

Green Bay is always a tough place to go but with the Lions in such form and the Packers facing some uncertainty at quarterback due to Jordan Love’s injury status, Detroit may never have a better opportunity to win their third-straight game on the enemy soil of the Packers.

Bar one slip-up against Tampa Bay in week two, the Lions have been a buzzsaw this season. They’ve scored at least 30 points in four of their six victories and in each of Detroit’s wins in 2024, they’ve covered the spread. Even when 12.5 point favourites against Tennessee last weekend, the Lions never put the cue on the rack. When all was said and done, the hosts led by 38.

The two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs has been the key to unlocking Detroit’s true potential and over the course of the last two months, they’ve positioned themselves as one of the NFL’s premier rushing tandems. The Lions have averaged 5.1 yards per carry so far this season and they’ve scored 13 rushing touchdowns, second-most in the league.

The Packers are solid defensively against the run, though not spectacular. They may be able to slow down Detroit’s relentless ground assault somewhat, but that’s only half the battle.

Jared Goff is playing like an NFL MVP, and it’s going to take a very good team to stop him. Over the last five weeks, Goff has completed a massive 83% of his passes and has been as close to perfect as we’re ever likely to see at the quarterback position. The Lions are rolling with a near-perfect offence at the moment and with just 2.5 points against them on the handicap, I fancy them to cover for a seventh time this season.

Posted at 1515 GMT on 02/11/24

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