NFL betting tips: Week 5 best bets including Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

NFL betting tips: Week 5

2pts New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings over 40.5 total match points at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Jayden Daniels (Commanders) to score a touchdown at evens (General)

3pts Baltimore Ravens Over 167.5 team total rushing yards at 20/23 (bet365)

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New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings

• Sunday 1430 BST

When the slate of 2024 London games were first revealed, few would have predicted that the Minnesota Vikings would arrive on these shores as favourites over the New York Jets.

But, after a scintillating – if surprising – start to life with Sam Darnold as the team’s primary passer, the Vikings are indeed favoured by 2.5 points to defeat Aaron Rodgers’ Jets this weekend.

We won with the Vikings last week as they were underestimated by the handicapper in Lambeau Field and – if I was to lean a certain way – I’d have a hard time picking against Minnesota again.

They’re 4-0, can throw everything at this game thanks to the bye week that follows it and – frankly – they’ve been the best overall team in the NFL so far this season.

However, the spread is a little more like it this week and there are a couple of factors that turn me off a straightforward handicap selection. We don’t know how the travel to London on a standard seven-day turnaround will affect Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers’ poor performance a week ago is unlikely to be repeated.

Therefore, it’s the match points market that takes my fancy in this one.

The price for this one to hit 41 points is currently 10/11 and whenever a line is that low, it’s always worth a look.

The Jets have averaged 19 points per game so far, but Minnesota are more than upholding their end of the bargain as they are averaging 29 points through the opening four weeks of the season.

Crucially, the Vikings also showed some vulnerability on the defensive side of the ball last week.

Although their high-scoring offence eventually saw them home, they allowed 29 points to the Packers and Green Bay left a few more out on the field thanks to a poor kicking display.

Brian Flores’ defence know how to blitz and hassle the offensive line, but they are susceptible to shipping decent yardage in the passing game.

Jordan Love racked up 389 passing yards in a losing effort last week and if Rodgers is given anything close to the same opportunities through the air, the future Hall of Famer will take them.

New York aren’t in full desperation mode, but they won’t want to leave the UK with a 2-3 record. They’ll be fired up after a disappointing display against Denver and should come out firing. I don’t think a shootout is off the cards, so I like the over in this one.

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

• Sunday 1800 BST

One of the biggest storylines in the early part of the season revolves around Washington quarterback JAYDEN DANIELS and just how good the rookie has looked.

He’s led the Commanders to a 3-1 record and his performances have many assuming that the annual offensive rookie of the year contest is already over.

His completion percentage is yet to dip below 70% (it was as high as 91% against the Bengals) and just in case his accurate passing wasn’t enough, he’s proven himself to be a true dual-threat QB.

Along with his 897 passing yards, Daniels has contributed heavily in the ground game, picking up at least 39 yards in each of his outings so far. He carried eight times against Arizona and remarkably that was his season-low, having ran the ball a combined 38 times against Cincinnati, New York and Tampa Bay.

In short, Daniels’ carrying is a genuine offensive threat in the Washington arsenal and it’s one we can take advantage of from a punting perspective.

He has five carries from within the ten-yard line so far this season and he’s turned them into four touchdowns.

For context, no quarterback in NFL history has ever scored more than four rushing touchdowns in their first four games as a pro. Only two have scored five in their first five games: Cam Newton and Anthony Richardson.

Due to the presence of Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler, Daniels isn’t the only redzone rushing option for Washington and this explains why he isn’t odds-on to score. However, it takes a very brave – or foolish – offensive coordinator to not call the number of his quarterback when he’s previously scored on 80% of his carries inside the ten.

Daniels should get at least one good opportunity on Sunday against a Cleveland team that are struggling with a 1-3 record. At evens, the price is too good to ignore.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Sunday 1800 BST - live on Sky Sports NFL

Offensively, the Baltimore Ravens went back to basics last week with a tried and tested method.

Feed Derrick Henry.

The ninth-year pro ran all over the Bills, taking 24 carries for 199 yards and a touchdown. It resulted in a dominant 35-10 win and indicated that Baltimore’s season is firmly now on track.

It would be crazy for the Ravens to divert from a winning model this week, so I suspect we’ll see much of the same from Baltimore as they take on the Bengals in a divisional match-up.

Sunday’s opponents Cincinnati are statistically better against the run than Buffalo this season, but not significantly. The Bengals’ defence are giving up 145.5 rushing yards per game so far at a rate of 4.4 per carry. That ranks them eighth-worst in the NFL.

Cincy may have what it takes to concede fewer rushing yards than Buffalo but stuffing the #1 rush-attack in football to any kind of reasonable degree will be some ask, and it’s very likely beyond them.

The Ravens are currently averaging a massive 220 yards per game, a full 45 yards more than the second-most effective rushing attack, the Green Bay Packers.

The tandem of Henry and Lamar Jackson is a juggernaut and I think there’s tremendous value in taking the Ravens to clear 167.5 TEAM RUSHING YARDS at a price of 20/23.

They’ve cleared the total in three of their four games and only fell 18 yards short in their loss to the Raiders – a game in which nothing seemed to go right in any phase of the game.

Baltimore have since righted a fair few wrongs and against both Dallas and Buffalo, the numbers have been gigantic with 270+ rushing yards in each.

With a buffer of 100 yards to play with, based on their efforts in the last fortnight, there’s a lot to like with this line and selection.

Posted at 0905 BST on 05/10/24

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