NFL betting tips: Week 4 best bets including San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

NFL betting tips: Week 4

2pts Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) to beat the Green Bay Packers as evens (General)

2pts Saquon Barkley (Eagles) over 74.5 rushing yards at 11/10 (bet365)

1pt Saquon Barkley over 74.5 rushing yards and a touchdown at 19/10 (William Hill)

2pts San Francisco 49ers to record over 3.5 sacks at 20/23 (bet365)

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Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

• Sunday, 1800 BST - live on Sky Sports NFL

The Green Bay Packers are always a tough test on their home turf and they’re performing like a play-off calibre roster at present, but momentum is a massive factor in sports and no team in the NFL has more on their side than the MINNESOTA VIKINGS.

No one really expected this. With Sam Darnold at quarterback and considerable early injuries to some key players, the Vikings would have been forgiven for mediocrity in the early stages of this season, but they’ve been quite the opposite.

It feels crazy to write this in the year 2024, but Sam Darnold is playing like an MVP candidate.

He’s maintained a quarterback rating of 117.3 through three games so far, as Minnesota have sailed through unbeaten. In this period, he’s completed almost 68% of his passes, thrown eight touchdowns and accumulated 657 passing yards. Crucially, he’s also only thrown two interceptions.

Will he achieve the 45-touchdown season he’s on pace for? Probably not, but he wasn’t expected to get anywhere close. His season-high in touchdown-scoring is 19, back when he was with the Jets in 2019.

It’s been a long time coming, but the former first-round pick is finally showing the potential he promised as a youngster.

Which brings us to Sunday and Minnesota’s trip to Green Bay.

The 3-0 Vikings are underdogs and the 2.5 points on the spread is generous. The line reaching three points would be the optimum outcome, as that would take away the field goal, but 2.5 is still nice enough to take.

The NFL isn’t all about quarterbacks, but it’s a major consideration in any close game and the facts are – as I write this – we do not know who will be starting quarterback for the Packers on Sunday.

Jordan Love could be back following the injury he picked up on the opening Friday of the season, but that’s still questionable.

If Love does suit up for Green Bay, it certainly gives them a boost but it isn’t enough to negate my interest in this pick. He’ll still have a tough time outperforming Darnold, if Sam is anywhere close to the level he was last Sunday. The Texans could hardly believe their eyes as Darnold dropped four touchdowns on them in a 34-7 blowout.

The alternative is Malik Willis. He’s 2-0 as a Green Bay starter, to his credit, but he’ll be facing a different beast this week in Minnesota’s defence. Brian Flores is revered for the defensive looks he throws at quarterbacks and whether it’s Willis or Love on Sunday, they’ll know they’re in a game early.

Give me the in-form quarterback and the Vikings to cover the spread in Lambeau.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Sunday, 1800 BST - live on Sky Sports NFL

SAQUON BARKLEY was sensational for the Eagles on Sunday, adding to what has been a very positive start for the running back in the opening three weeks of the season.

Any doubts over his durability have been cast aside due to his massive involvement in Philadelphia’s offence and, to this point, no one in the league has more touches (73).

He was the star man against the Saints, rushing for 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Barkley’s rushing yardage line this week is set at 74.5 and I love the over in that particular market. He’s smashed that total in all three of his outings so far and he faces a Tampa Bay defence this week that have been shipping over 137 yards per game.

With A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith both likely missing for Philly, there will be a huge emphasis on the run game and Barkley’s form indicates he’ll relish the opportunity.

He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry so far this season, while the Bucs generally are conceding rushing yardage at a rate of 4.9 yards per carry. If we give Tampa Bay the benefit of the doubt and split the difference, we should be expecting Barkley to pick up around 5.25 yards each time he carries the ball on Sunday.

Through three games, he’s averaged 21 carries an outing. A repeat would put him above 110 yards and even his lowest mark (17 carries last Sunday) would have him in touching distance of a 90-yard game.

This line feels too good to pass up and I would even advise a further bet, with a third 100-yard game on the cards and a touchdown likely, with Barkley fronting Philadelphia’s weapons department in the absence of Smith and Brown.

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers

• Sunday, 2105 BST

We had some success with the San Francisco 49ers and their pass-rush unit last week, as they sacked Matt Stafford three times to land the overs.

Their line this week has extended to OVER 3.5 SACKS, so the Niners will need an extra effort, but I’m willing to go to the well again.

Nick Bosa has had an extra week to get healthier after an injury scare almost kept him out of the Rams game, and San Francisco’s opposition this week look there for the taking.

The New York Jets racked up six sacks on the Patriots offensive line last week as New England fell apart. The Jets don’t have the most dominant defensive line statistically, but they were made to look ferocious by New England’s men in the trenches.

The Patriots are the least efficient pass-blocking unit in the NFL according to PFF, having given up a whopping 41 pressures on 96 quarterback drop-backs.

Fifteen times this season already, they have allowed a completely unblocked pressure on their quarterback. In other words, Jacoby Brissett is becoming very accustomed to the deck and he should find himself there a few more times on Sunday against a 49ers unit hurting after their defeat in LA.

It’s mismatch on paper and with San Francisco desperately needing a win to get back on track in the NFC West, expect them to dial up the heat when their opposition has the football.

Four sacks is a relatively large ask but, if the Jets were able to exceed that total a week ago, I have every belief a superior San Francisco defence can follow suit.

Posted at 1540 BST on 28/09/24

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