NFL betting tips: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles preview, predictions and best bets

NFL betting tips: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

2pts Over 48.5 match points at 10/11 (General)

2pts AJ Brown anytime touchdown at 11/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pts Saquon Barkley 100+ rushing yards at 6/5 bet365)

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Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

• Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports Main Event
• Spread: Commanders +3.5 @ 10/11
• Total: Over 49.5 @ 10/11

Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with the Washington Commanders travelling to Philadelphia to face the Eagles.

The Eagles are riding high on a five-game winning streak, having just dispatched the Cowboys 34-6 last time out. They’ve blown out the Cowboys, Bengals and Giants during that run, but nearly lost against the Watson-led Browns and moribund Jaguars.

For a team who sit at 7-2, you wouldn’t expect such a disgruntled fan base – but head coach Nick Sirianni seems locked in on angering his own (he taunted Eagles fans after the Browns victory, and routinely makes coaching gaffs). With that being said, they boast one of the best rosters in the NFL (#6 in offensive yards/game, #2 in defensive yards/game).

Washington are one of the feel-good stories of the year. Moving on from previous ownership, they’ve accelerated their growth with the addition of superstar QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders sit at 7-3, already beating many experts pre-season win total projections.

Only the Baltimore Ravens have scored more points than Washington this season, and their defence is playing well above its talent level, thanks to some great coaching and veteran additions. They came back down to reality on Sunday though, with a bitterly close loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Speaking of that defence, they have shown weakness to running backs – having allowed 1,168 yards to the position (the fifth most in the NFL), on top of nine touchdowns.

Enter SAQUON BARKLEY.

Over his last five games Barkley has averaged 111 rushing yards and while you may look to last time out against Dallas and be concerned with his 66-yard performance, ultimately he wasn’t need in this blowout victory.

In nine career games against Washington, he’s averaged 88 rushing yards and scored 8 total TDs. The Eagles would be wise to lean into Barkley to wear out the Commanders defence – take his over.

The threat of Barkley opens so much in the passing game, where AJ BROWN could be a huge factor.

In his return to full health Brown hauled in five of seven targets for 109 yards – and you can guarantee he’s been waiting for this game (they’ve conceded 12 TDs to WRs this season). The Commanders did bring in CB Marshon Lattimore to beef up their secondary, but that will only quell Brown so much.

He's Jalen Hurts' favourite red zone target so back him to score at odds-against.

This is a battle of two elite offences, which is why I like the OVER 48.5 POINTS line.

For all the greatness of the Eagles’ defence, we’ve seen time and time again that good offence beats out good defence – helping lead to a shootout between these sides (plus the over has hit in 7/10 matches for the Commanders this season).

This is certainly a game that the Eagles should be winning, but they keep finding a way of shooting themselves in the foot. I can see this one coming down to the final possession, with Washington’s handicap looking potentially generous.

Posted at 1530 GMT on 12/11/24

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