NFL betting tips: Houston Texans @ New York Jets preview, predictions and best bets

NFL betting tips: Houston Texans @ New York Jets

2pts Aaron Rodgers 1.5+ passing touchdowns at 21/10 (bet365)

2pts Joe Mixon 81.5+ rushing yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

1pt Texans to win at 1/1 (Sky Bet)

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Houston Texans @ New York Jets

• Kick-off time: Friday, 01:15 GMT
• TV: Sky Sports Main Event
• Spread: Houston Texans +2@ 10/11
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 10/11

Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with the Houston Texans travelling to face the New York Jets, who are surprisingly favoured in this contest.

The Jets are on a five-game losing streak and last Sunday saw their most embarrassing loss to their division rival 1-6 New England Patriots. Robert Saleh was fired after their loss in London, with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich stepping up as interim head coach. Their defence was one of their strengths throughout the poor start to the season, but with the loss of Saleh this has now faded too – they’ve conceded an average of 28 points through their last three games.

And in those games the rush defence has been woeful. Ray Davis posted 97 rushing yards, Najee Harris bagged 102 yards and Rhamondre Stevenson scored a brace. Through the season they’ve allowed over 100 rushing yards/game to running backs, the 10th most in the NFL. Joe Mixon, who has rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games while scoring four touchdowns along the way, is back to his very best, yet his line his set at just 80.5 rushing yards. This is a plus spot for Mixon and they’d be wise to lean into him, considering the injuries to their top two WRs.

The Texans are 6-2 on the season, but they only just managed a win against a struggling Colts side, and before that they lost in a close match to the Packers. The main concern with the Texans is their offence, which is yet to really kick into gear. In his last three games CJ Stroud has averaged a poor 187 passing yards/game and they are missing their top two WRs, Nico Collins & Steffon Diggs, leading to the Jets being shockingly favoured in this game.

In support of the Jets in this matchup the Texans are vulnerable through the air. They’ve allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season and in their recent games they’ve surrendered three TD passes to Drake Maye, alongside three TDs from Jordan Love. Aaron Rodgers has multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games, and in four career games against Houston he’s averaged 3.5 passing TDs per game.

Home advantage is the main driver behind the Jets being favourites on a short week. They’re an undisciplined team who have committed the second most penalties in the NFL – and they have shown little to no reason why they should be favoured in this contest. The Texans are well coached and can lean into their ground and pound attack to see off the Jets.

Verdict: Texans 28-21 Jets

Posted at 1800 BST on 30/10/24

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