Open Championship betting tips: Specials and prop bets for major at Troon

Golf betting tips: Open Championship specials

3pts Brian Harman to be the top left-handed player at 5/2 (Sky Bet, Betway)

1pt Austin Eckroat to finish in the top 20 at 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred)

0.5pt Austin Eckroat to be the top debutant at 22/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt Angel Hidalgo to be the top debutant at 100/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)

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Followers of the equivalent US Open preview may not thank me for the reminder that we almost got it spot-on. Two of the three legs of an advised trixie won, but the final one in such a wager is key and a 60-point swing against us was brought about by Akshay Bhatia overtaking Brian Harman on the back-nine to be the top left-hander.

Key to that selection was a false favourite in the shape of Robert MacIntyre, who had just won in Canada, gone back to Oban to thank friends and family for their support, and looked opposable at the odds. MacIntyre is a fine golfer with a very high ceiling, but he's never been consistent and that's reflected by missed cuts in the week prior to this year's two famous wins.

He's shorter still at 5/4 to be the top left-hander here and I'd want to take him on at that price every day of the week even before we get to the winner's paradox: the idea that victory in the Scottish Open has shortened MacIntyre's odds in all markets, but actually might be the reason why he's unable to produce his best golf at Royal Troon.

That was a massive achievement, a potentially career-defining one, for MacIntyre, every inch a proud Scotsman. Going again, after the energy that went into overcoming last year's heartache in the same event, will be a tall order. And remember, he said on Sunday night that 'I'm gonna celebrate this one hard, and we'll pitch up to the Open when we pitch up to the Open'.

Having pushed his press conference back a day, MacIntyre's preparation has definitely changed because of what happened on Sunday. So have his odds. That presents a fantastic opportunity for punters, and I'm sticking with BRIAN HARMAN to capitalise.

Bhatia could do us again and at 4/1, I wouldn't talk anyone out of a saver. He also has the opposite draw to the other two key protagonists and if teeing off late on Thursday is as advantageous as it was in 2016, when such players dominated the event, then he'll have every chance.

However that is by no means clear at the time of writing and in Harman, we've an in-form defending champion whose age, experience and links smarts are all in his favour, and who prepared best by taking part in the Scottish Open last week.

As he mentioned on Monday, his long-game has been very good at times this year and he almost won The PLAYERS because of it, but at times he's not putted quite so well. That though can change in an instant and it won't surprise me in the slightest if he's back putting as he did when winning comfortably last year.

That had somewhat been coming, Harman having started to build up an excellent Open record and again warmed-up in Scotland. And, significantly, defending champions tend to give this a good go: Cam Smith 33rd, Shane Lowry 12th, Francesco Molinari 11th, Jordan Spieth ninth, Henrik Stenson 11th, Zach Johnson 12th, Phil Mickelson 23rd, Ernie Els 26th. Collin Morikawa (MC) really is the only exception since Darren Clarke, a veteran, also missed the cut in 2012.

With Harman having produced an excellent set of ball-striking statistics last week, he looks to me like he'll be the latest to stick around for all four days and produce something like a top-20 finish, perhaps even better than that. It may well be more than enough to beat MacIntyre, Bhatia, and the other three left-handers, among whom only Mickelson looks a danger, and at 2/1 and bigger he's a fabulous bet.

Speaking of that top-20 finish market, it seems the right one in which to side with AUSTIN ECKROAT.

Here's a thing: twenty years ago, a player won the Honda Classic, then turned up to the Open ranked 56th in the world. That player was named Todd Hamilton and he famously won the Claret Jug, beating Ernie Els right here at Royal Troon.

Now in 2024 it so happens that the world number 56 is Eckroat, and he too won the Honda Classic in February, albeit the event is under a new banner now. One constant though is that it's always been a good Open pointer, largely because it's taken place at courses in Florida where players have to be good in the wind.

Sepp Straka has been second in an Open since winning it, and he beat Shane Lowry, already an Open champion, for that Honda victory. Rory McIlroy, Justin Leonard, Adam Scott, Padraig Harrington, Rickie Fowler, Ernie Els, Jesper Parnevik... there's a long list of names on the roll-of-honour who have won or almost won an Open, often here at Troon.

Who knows what that's worth but Eckroat, born and raised in windy Oklahoma, is striking his ball really well. He also has two top-20s in four major starts as a pro and if he can learn a little something about putting on links greens following last week's narrow missed cut, he could be the latest unheralded American to make an impact in this – even if that doesn't quite reach Hamilton levels.

Eckroat is also of interest in the top debutant market, headed by Ludvig Aberg and with Bhatia and Davis Thompson behind. These three were all involved at the US Open and any one of them could contend for the title, but Aberg in particular is extremely short in the betting.

Eckroat is worth a small go and so is ANGEL HIDALGO, who is simply the wrong price. This is a very good DP World Tour player who BoyleSports and bet365 have priced up at four-times the price of some amateurs, at twice the price of players like Kazuma Kobori and Elvis Smylie who for now are a long way behind him.

Sam Hutsby is half Hidalgo's price and he's been struggling on the Challenge Tour whereas the Spaniard was inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour last week. Were he on the Challenge Tour, playing as he has so far in 2024, he'd doubtless be right towards the top of the season-long standings and I can't for the life of me figure out why two different firms would come to this similar conclusion.

Betfred go 55/1 which is more like it but he's a bet down to about 40s.

Other markets of interest...

Also at Pinehurst, I selected TIGER WOODS to make the cut at 9/4. He of course failed, but I thought there were enough positives to believe that he's worth another chance at another course which will allow his links smarts, decision making and shot-shaping to remain relevant, in a way that they wouldn't have been at Valhalla in the PGA.

Woods certainly sounded more optimistic during Tuesday's press conference and I do believe that this will suit today's version of Woods much more than the Old Course, where he missed the cut two years ago. We thought that might be his Open farewell but he's back and I don't think making it to the weekend is at all beyond him.

"I've been training a lot better," he said on Tuesday. "We've been busting it pretty hard in the gym, which has been good. Body's been feeling better to be able to do such things, and it translates on being able to hit the ball better."

"Can't quite stay out there during a practice session as long as I'd like, but I'm able to do some things that I haven't done all year, which is nice."

BoyleSports go 13/8 and bet365 make him 2/1 for a top-40 finish, which strengthens my view that Paddy Power's 5/2 to make the cut is on the generous side. Sky Bet offer 2/1 and that would be as low as I'd go, with William Hill splitting the difference at 9/4.

Sporting Life RequestABet

• Brian Harman top left-hander
• Tiger Woods to make the cut
• No hole in one in the Open

Another contrarian option is to back NO HOLE-IN-ONE at 11/8 generally and 7/5 with Betfred. This is a bigger price than we'd typically be offered and that's all down to the Postage Stamp, Troon's famous eighth hole, which can play under 100 yards and may well do for one of the three rounds.

Clearly, if that's on Thursday or Friday you've in excess of 150 players taking aim with a wedge and would need to dodge a bullet. However, there is wind in the forecast and there wasn't a hole-in-one at the eighth in 2016. Those aboard back then were a bit unfortunate that Louis Oosthuizen made one at the 14th instead, meaning the last two Opens held at Troon have featured one.

I'm not sure how significant that really is and, typically, about one in every four Opens produces an ace. That wider view makes the available prices seem generous and there will be those who simply don't even aim at the pin on eight, while hole 17th has been lengthened and the odds of one there have drifted quite significantly as a result.

Ultimately, we're probably a little too reliant on the R&A's choice of pin position and how that matches up with the day's weather, but if you're inclined to be asking for prices on a range of events, selecting no hole-in-one, while the unpopular play, might be the best one. We've put together such a bet which is 18/1 and pays in full if Harman does tie in that top lefty market.

Posted at 1505 BST on 16/07/24

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