Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the SDC Open

Golf betting tips: SDC Open

1pt e.w. Jovan Rebula at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Dylan Mostert at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Mikael Lindberg at 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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The Challenge Tour season begins with a month in South Africa and a life-changing opportunity for some of the Sunshine Tour players, for whom the path to the DP World Tour has never been smoother.

That isn't to say it'll be easy for any one of them, but we've had five South Africans earn membership through the Road to Mallorca over the past two years, the same number who graduated from 2014 to 2021, and it's become a big opportunity given the advantages of playing on home soil.

We begin this time with the SDC Open at Zebula, a bushveld course with pretty wide fairways and an emphasis on low scoring. When Clement Sordet won here a couple of years ago, genuine powerhouses Freddy Schott and Marco Penge were close behind, and Wilco Nienaber should be a big threat on his debut.

He's probably the right favourite ahead of Oliver Bekker with that in mind but this isn't the strongest renewal and you'd certainly have to respect Ryan van Velzen, runner-up in the SA Open, a winner last week, and clearly among the most promising youngsters in South Africa at the moment.

That Sunshine Tour event could be another advantage as it gave the locals a chance to shed some rust, an opportunity Bekker and van Velzen took whereas Nienaber and Thomas Aiken did not. With many of the Europeans not having played for a couple of months, they really do have the cards stacked against them.

One exception is Alex Levy, who went to Australia and then to South Africa following Qualifying School. Levy's form during that run was of a higher standard than many of these have shown, his best golf certainly is, and he might well be inspired by Matthieu Pavon's PGA Tour victory last weekend.

Two years after Sordet won here, Levy would be my pick of the favourites but I am slightly put off by a modest record in South Africa overall, and ultimately I don't know as the first event of a long Challenge Tour campaign is the time to go steaming into a player of his profile.

Deon Germishuys, the 54-hole leader before succumbing to Sordet, is another class-dropper of note and he was close to the leaders on the DP World Tour on home soil before Christmas. I'd argue 40/1 is on the big side but at the more general prices he too can be left alone, with Levy and Nienaber considered the best options for those who do want to side with one of the favourites.

I prefer three bets further down the market, all of them long off the tee, and I'll start with the pick of them – JOVAN REBULA.

Close followers of the game may know he's the nephew of Ernie Els and he's certainly inherited his uncle's tempo, if not all of his talent.

That being said, Rebula was a top-class amateur who played college golf to a high level and won the Amateur Championship, so at 26 there's still plenty more in the locker and I would be surprised if he's not good enough to win a Sunshine Tour event at the very least.

Signs are that he's getting closer. Rebula has contended five times since the Sunshine Tour Players Championship last April, and truth be told he'd never really had a sniff before that. It's taken a while, but his trajectory appears steadily upwards now and that continued last week, when third in the Mediclinic Invitational.

Rebula sat second at halfway only to stall before finishing with a flourish and there's definitely a chance he needs a little more experience in the heat of battle, but at 100/1 I reckon his rate of progression is being underestimated.

Two missed cuts before Christmas both came by a single shot in events won by Louis Oosthuizen, leagues above this grade, and before that he ended rounds one, two and three inside the top 20 of the SA Open won by Dean Burmester.

The final positive is that one of these opportunities to win came here in August, since which time he's got married and continued to play good golf, and it feels to me like this could be the year he makes headlines again and wins his first tour-level title.

Perhaps it could come here and he's the right sort of player on paper.

Yurav Premlall shared third with him last week and is another who has always been touted. He's a good deal younger than Rebula at 21 and he too played better than his results suggest in those DP World Tour events in December, with three of four missed cuts coming by narrow margins.

I would think this comes too soon for him, however, and would rather chance DYLAN MOSTERT.

This big-hitting lefty isn't consistent and struggled badly when earning Challenge Tour status last year, something he managed with victory in the Nelson Mandela Bay Championship.

While these events are fantastic for players like him, we shouldn't underestimate the scale of the task when all of a sudden you're flying around Europe, dealing with entirely different conditions, being away from family and so on, all while under financial pressure.

Mostert birdied the last to capture the biggest win of his career in that co-sanctioned event and it's a nice habit he has, having done so twice at Sunshine Tour level and twice when first appearing on the Big Easy Tour.

Third place last week was a welcome return to form after a big learning curve in 2023 and there had been some encouraging signs before Christmas, most notably when 24th in Joburg, so he simply looks a player who you have to pay respect to in this kind of event.

The reason for the price is he's got a poor record here on the face of it, but he did sit 10th at halfway and finish a respectable 20th in 2022. Last August's missed cut came after a chastening couple of months overseas and I'm not sure there's enough evidence just yet that this course is one he can't handle.

Mostert is volatile, hence a couple of 80-plus rounds last year, but he's also very capable and he did really well to climb to third place in the Mediclinic Invitational having sat 55th after round one. Perhaps he can run with it.

Finally, I'm intrigued by MIKAEL LINDBERG, one of the very best drivers on the DP World Tour last season, a rookie campaign which offered flashes of promise.

So did Q School, where he wasn't far from earning his card, and while bold predictions at Challenge Tour level are foolish, I won't be surprised if he's going off at much shorter prices come summer having confirmed that he has a good deal of ability.

Certainly, Lingberg was one of the best players on the circuit towards the end of his latest Challenge Tour campaign and at a course where Penge, Schott and Sordet were able to blast their way into the mix, I want to give him a chance to very small stakes.

Back to the French challenge and Martin Couvra is a fascinating prospect. The former number one amateur at home, he won on the Challenge Tour before turning professional and then acquitted himself pretty well, including when up in grade on the DP World Tour.

He says he's out to enjoy this week and see where that takes him and we'll also learn plenty from how he gets on, and now that quotes of 50/1 have gone I'd be more inclined to chance Clement Berardo if you do believe the Pavon angle.

Berardo was seventh through 54 holes here last year and generally looked back to his once-promising best. He gives it a rip and emulating Sordet, with whom he's played a lot of golf, isn't beyond the realms of possibility at 175/1 in places.

Speculation is the name of the game as we ease our way into the new season but while making an exception for Lindberg, who could be grossly underestimated, I do believe the locals will again hold sway with so much in their favour.

Posted at 1000 GMT on 31/01/24

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