Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Finnish Challenge

Golf betting tips: Finnish Challenge

4pts win Wilco Nienaber at 16/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)

1.5pts e.w. Herman Wibe Sekne at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Kris Reitan at 50/1 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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After a busy run in the UK and Ireland, this week's Finnish Challenge is one of the weaker Challenge Tour events played so far in 2024. Five of the top nine in the Road to Mallorca standings are absent and among the last five tournament winners at this level, only one is in the field.

That man is Joakim Lagergren and he should enjoy Vierumaki Resort, which very much lives up to its name. This is a par 72* which barely stretches beyond 7,000 yards and fairways are for the most part generous. With a decent weather forecast bar the odd shower, there really isn't anything complicated about it.

Now, it wouldn't surprise me were the ninth hole, which played as a par-four last year but is now listed as a par-five, to suddenly appear as a four when play begins. Regardless, that didn't stop Lauri Ruuska shooting 59 to begin a seven-shot romp, his 27-under winning total another step up on 21 and 26 in the two previous years, and scoring will be low once more.

Such courses tend to be vulnerable to a bit of everything but Ruuska is a long, strong driver, as is 2021 champion Marcus Helligkilde, and that could be key. There are four par-fives that players like these can reduce to nothing and the 2022 winner, Velten Meyer, averaged less than 4.0 for these holes. Then there's the driveable par-four 13th, where four of the top seven last year made eagle, as had Meyer.

After Ruuska did the business for us 12 months ago, I was hoping to back Tapio Pulkkanen to conjure a repeat. Home advantage is significant at this level and when the trilbied Finn finished 30th here in 2016, it was his best result of a miserable campaign. He's long, he came closest to a DP World Tour breakthrough at a resort course in Prague, and after a decent Olympics he was eighth last week.

Then again, unlike Ruuska, who was in good form himself, it's hard to argue bookmakers have missed anything at 12/1 generally and a best of 14s, even if Pulkkanen is a solid operator at this level. Ten different people could find 10 different favourites for this, but I don't see a more likely contender than WILCO NIENABER.

The word contender is used there rather than winner, because Nienaber has spurned several good opportunities this year. In fact, on no fewer than six occasions he's started the final round inside the top four, three of them in the lead, yet so far his best result is second place in the UAE Challenge.

This can be viewed two ways but I do like the consistency he's beginning to show and expect him to make it nine cuts made in succession when he returns to Finland, where he failed to make the weekend back in 2019 on what was just his second start as a pro. That's easily forgiven, especially as there was plenty of hype that week after an encouraging performance on his professional debut.

Key to the case is the course – as it so often is with Nienaber – as if he continues in the same vein as his closing 54 holes last week, where he climbed from 106th to 17th around a much tighter one, he should be putting for eagle more than once each day. He's not alone in being capable of overpowering this place, but he is uniquely long and won't find many courses more vulnerable to that talent.

I've heard one or two whispers of improved wedge play from those inside the ropes and, from 17th in the standings, it's time for Nienaber to do what he's not yet managed to and earn full status on the DP World Tour. With seven of those ahead of him absent from this field, and the golf course so obviously suitable, this looks as good an opportunity as he's had outside of South Africa.

With just five or six places on offer, I'm inclined to go win-only and see where we are come the weekend.

Three weeks ago I wrote about how Jack McDonald might benefit from playing in the Open and it didn't take much longer for him to contend, which he did back home in Scotland. The trouble is he's now 50/1 from 200s and while that's partly because he was runner-up here last year, all value has surely now gone.

I'm much more inclined to chance HERMAN WIBE SEKNE, a Norwegian youngster who reached the top 15 of the World Amateur Golf Rankings and finished his college career within touching distance of the top 10 in the PGA Tour University rankings.

Karl Vilips has already come out and won on the Korn Ferry Tour, Frederik Kjettrup has won twice in Canada and we know all about Michael Thorbjornsen by now, and this is a real conveyor-belt of talent which will continue to set players up to make an immediate impact.

I touched upon Sekne ahead of his pro debut in Brno and felt we'd be best keeping an eye on him and the others following a similar path, because for every Vilips there are those who really struggle to make the transition. Rushing to back them when bookmakers are increasingly alive to the dangers of dangling a carrot is probably not the best idea.

But now we've had a look at Sekne and in five starts, not only does he have fifth (hung around all week) in Austria, but 11th last time in Ireland, where he was 109th after day one and then burst onto the fringes of contention, where he remained for the rest of the week.

The other three were all missed cuts but two came by a single shot so only at the quirky Pleneuf has the sweet-swinging 23-year-old struggled and that's not a big surprise, as he has the makings of a modern powerhouse still working on the skills needed at some of the more fiddly Challenge Tour stops, of which there are plenty.

By contrast there aren't all that many courses on the Challenge Tour where brute force is the way to go but this is one of them and I have a strong suspicion that this will be in his favour.

Returning to Scandinavia has to be a plus – a Norwegian won the event in Denmark earlier this year, with an Icelander and a Finn among a tie for second – and I like him at 40/1 and upwards.

Reitan the money?

Bjorn Akesson was on my shortlist until one firm made him a 14/1 shot, which in turn probably kept a few others from going bigger than they have. He was the halfway leader here in 2022, right at the start of his comeback from retirement, and having been fifth when last seen could well threaten his second win of the year.

Oliver Gillberg's propensity to throw in a big number is a worry and while I believe Jeremy Freiburghaus is a fair price, the opening 150/1 has long gone and only one firm remains at three-figure prices. Despite his best form putting him even closer to the top of any Challenge Tour market, based on where he is now I don't want to go any lower despite two top-10s from as many visits to the course.

I have spent far too much of today pondering Wil Besseling, who hits it miles and is in excellent form, but has missed the cut on both previous starts here. My conclusion is that he definitely prefers tougher conditions, partly because his putting can be poor, and for that reason I struggle to see him breaking the 20-under barrier.

Still, there's a very strong, priced-based case and they always have to be taken seriously. Last time he played, Besseling was 25/1 and finished 12th. In the same event, McDonald was 150/1, Akesson 80/1, Jack Senior 70/1, and they're each now about a third of the price. That's because this is weaker and because they all have the course form which Besseling so clearly lacks. Still, it's worth noting.

I'm ultimately returning to Norway to side with KRISTOFFER REITAN in the hope that he can bounce back from Sunday's disappointing finish, having faded from the final group to a modest 36th.

Reitan has always had a lot of talent and we saw during his time on the DP World Tour that he's a powerhouse who can putt, which is a good formula for this. Vierumaki really does look a potentially dream fit and while he missed the cut narrowly in 2017, that was his first ever Challenge Tour start and he was only 19.

Although he's struggled badly at times since then, the last 12 months have been much more like it and across two tours he's had four legitimate chances to win in his last 20 starts, generally sticking around well enough until he came unstuck in Scotland.

What really strikes me about his DP World Tour efforts is that the pick of them generally came on big, resort-style golf courses where length was an advantage: Cervo, Albatross and Dom Pedro in particular, where he could lean on his driver.

Back in Scandinavia, he might be able to do as the last couple of Challenge Tour winners have done, and go from contending one week to winning the next.

Alex Levy won at Dom Pedro and another shootout in Germany and it would've been hard to imagine him going off at these prices in weak fields back in the spring. His form has dipped since but he may not be all that far away and a driver-heavy shootout could conjure improvement, but like Besseling albeit to a lesser extent the putter could be a problem so he too is omitted.

Finally, a word on the locals beyond Pulkkanen and Oliver Lindell, both of whom appear well-found in the betting.

To be frank there aren't many who you can make a case for and with veteran course winner Roope Kakko so badly out of form, his record of having never shot worse than 71 around here is likely to be in jeopardy.

I was more interested in Juuso Kahlos, who recently won the same (small) event that Ruuska had prior to his victory here last year. Kahlos then played in the Euram Bank Open and finished 24th after a bright start, and he is playing better than when 21st in this two years ago.

Again like Ruuska he's a former winner of the Finnish Amateur who was once promising but I reckon there aren't all that many viable winners here, and hand on heart he wouldn't be among them. Nienaber, finally, to confirm his ascent, with Pulkkanen the biggest danger but priced about right.

Posted at 2020 BST on 13/08/24

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