Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Danish Golf Challenge

Golf betting tips: Danish Golf Challenge

1pt e.w. John Axelsen at 80/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Hugo Townsend at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Lucas Bjerregaard at 200/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is one win away from promotion to the DP World Tour, and it would surprise nobody were he to get the job done now heading back home for the Danish Golf Challenge.

Neergaard-Petersen made an immediate impression last summer, finishing seventh in Germany shortly after he'd turned professional, and with form figures of 1-7-1-2 he's plainly the best player on the Challenge Tour right now.

Monday saw him finish 15th in the US Open qualifier at Walton Heath, an opportunity missed given that two bad swings cost him four shots and he only missed out by three, but it's still further evidence as to the overall state of his game given the quality of that field.

Being at home, as favourite, with so much on the line, could be seen as the one potential stumbling block. He's only played in Denmark once as a pro and will be the centre of attention, albeit it's hardly as if the eyes of the world are upon him. Still, it would be his most impressive achievement to date to go out there and win.

That being said, there's a very strong argument for home advantage at this level, one I advocate for, one demonstrated by Joel Moscatel last time. Around one in 10 Challenge Tour events have been won by a home player over the past 15 years and this doesn't include Swedes winning in Denmark, Englishmen in Scotland, and so on.

With financial pressure very much a factor and careers on the line, being at home, reducing those expenses, not to mention knowing conditions that little bit better on a tour that's been to the Middle East, South Africa and India already this year, can be huge. Neergaard-Petersen looks dangerous anywhere, but he could be more so in Denmark.

Odense Eventyr Golf certainly looks at the mercy of a player like him. This is a short par 72 and with Wednesday's wind unlikely to remain a factor once play begins, scoring should be low if the greens hold up, which according to some reports might be in doubt. It's fair to say it won't be the best conditioned course they play this year, anyway.

It was a stableford event which took place here on the Nordic Golf League in 2019, but the winner was 13-under for 54 holes. A year earlier, course member Peter Baek won in 12-under for his three rounds and this field is considerably stronger, so something 20-under and beyond could well be required given a generally favourable forecast.

There's not a great deal more to go on and with initial fancy Kristoffer Broberg having withdrawn to take up a spot in the Soudal Open field, there's not a strong bet anywhere on the odds board. However, there is every chance we get a strong Scandinavian challenge, players from Sweden perhaps just as likely to relish conditions, and a handful appeal to small stakes.

Can Hugo boss things back in Scandinavia?

Top of the list is HUGO TOWNSEND, a youngster who made the world's top 50 as an amateur and is bursting with potential.

He really impressed playing partner Eddie Pepperell when finishing 11th in last year's Scandinavian Mixed on his final start before turning professional, and then a few weeks later was the halfway leader in France.

After an educational couple of months going from there to Italy, on to Austria and over to the UK, it took until Townsend returned to Sweden for him to get competitive again, finishing 18th and 12th in what would be his final two starts of the season.

That means he's three-from-three for top-20 finishes when playing Challenge and DP World Tour events in Sweden and it's not been a surprise to see him immediately showcase his qualities on the Nordic Golf League, where he registered three top-fives in his first four starts.

Since then he's been a bit quieter, going 24-13-MC-18, but the missed cut was by a single shot on his Challenge Tour return, and it came about because he took seven at the 36th hole in Spain. Call that another lesson learned for a player who is likely going places.

Just last week he played in Sweden back at NGL level and while 18th is nothing to write home about, he was 10 behind the winner after an opening 73, then shot 67-65 to close that gap to nine in the end. Hopefully that sets him up nicely for the trip to Denmark, where he won't concede a course experience edge to many in this field.

Christofer Rahm won that event and was dominant in doing so, having shot 63-63 over the opening two rounds. He's already earned Challenge Tour status with a Nordic League hat-trick and though hard to get a handle on having been far from the best amateur around, he's taken a big step up this year and for that merits respect.

I marginally prefer Charlie Lindh, who is in some ways just as difficult to grade as he turned professional very young, but who has two wins in Denmark to his name and has hinted at ability several times now.

Lindh earned Asian Tour status at their Q-School late last year which is no small achievement but more striking is the fact that in just eight Challenge Tour appearances in Scandinavia, he has twice finished in the top five, first in Copenhagen this time last year and again in Sweden in September.

He also shot a second-round 66 to narrowly miss the cut in the Made in HimmerLand up at DP World Tour level last summer, and we only have to go back three and four starts respectively for finishes of 17th in Saudi Arabia (John Catlin 1st, Kiradech Aphibarnrat 3rd, David Puig 5th) and 19th at this level in India, when fifth at halfway.

Lindh wasn't a factor but nevertheless made the cut in Spain last time and back under more familiar conditions, he's shown already that he has it within him to contend. He was the last one off my shortlist, ultimately, as while there's a lot of guesswork involved I felt he was about the right sort of price. With markets weak, I wouldn't want to be advising him at anything less than the standout 150/1 and will refrain from doing so.

Albin Bergstrom is another highly promising NGL winner and has played this course before, albeit unsuccessfully, while of the Danish lot, Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen has made a few eye-catching starts. He got his card through Q-School last year when few would've expected him to, though it must be said he's yet to put four rounds together since.

The one I keep coming back to is JOHN AXELSEN, who was a genuine stud as an amateur, playing team golf with the Hojgaard twins and considered borderline elite thanks to three wins in the Danish International Amateur.

As a professional, he breezed through the Nordic Golf League in 2022, winning three times and contending virtually every week, before an outstanding performance at Qualifying School saw him finish ninth to earn his DP World Tour card despite a slow start to that six-round marathon.

He looked good enough last year, too, finishing 12th when selected for the KLM Open at 500/1, sixth the following week, and adding three more top-20s as he only narrowly failed to keep hold of his full playing status.

That good spell began this very week a year ago and while his game did fall off a cliff towards the end of the campaign, he finally showed signs of life last time out in the UAE, opening 68-70 under tough conditions to lie eighth at halfway.

Axelsen played poorly in round three and needs to build on those first 36 holes, but the talent is there and we saw a glimpse of it back in 2019 when, on just his second Challenge Tour start and first since he missed the cut as a 17-year-old in 2015, he finished fifth in the Made in Denmark Challenge.

Home comforts might again help him to conjure the ability we know is there. He's one of those who could well be going off close to favourite at this level before the season is out if things do click.

Feel the force with Lucas

Further up the betting, Axelsen's former international teammate Hamish Brown has started to show what he can do while 2024 winners Bjorn Akesson and Mikael Lindberg are other Swedes who've winning form in Denmark and played nicely in Spain last time out, as did Niklas Lemke who has long had bags of talent.

Away from the locals, John Parry is a former winner of the aforementioned Danish Amateur (as is Alex Albon) and back-to-form Dave Horsey has been first and second at HimmerLand, but I'll return to that home contingent for a speculative bet on LUCAS BJERREGAARD.

Clearly, he's been a pale shadow of the player who took down Tiger Woods in the 2019 Match Play a few weeks before the latter won the Masters, but again look what happened when he came back to this part of the world last year: 29th in an event reduced to 54 holes then 10th the following week, when he was third with a round to go.

After a slow start to 2024 on the Nordic Golf League, he played really nicely for the final two days of the Spanish Open to climb from 75th to seventh, then came out onto the Challenge Tour to finish 49th and 19th across the fortnight in India, which represents progress.

On Monday, he was four-under overall midway through the back-nine of his second round of the US Open qualifier when withdrawing knowing he couldn't quite reach the required mark, so that's yet more good golf from a genuine sleeping giant at this kind of level.

For what it's worth, Neergaard-Petersen completed his two rounds in six-under and Bjerregaard had a par-five still to play. Wilco Nienaber and Oliver Bekker were behind Bjerregaard and while two-round qualifiers are a bit different, something of a free shot in many respects, the field at Walton Heath was stronger than this one.

Reports of firm fairways might be no bad thing for this former Dunhill Links champion and low-scoring conditions certainly would be my preference, so at 200/1 I feel compelled to put him up. Make no mistake, Bjerregaard was competitive at this level last autumn and there are some signs that he's better now than he was then. This is the time to chance him.

Posted at 0720 BST on 22/05/24

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