Golf betting tips: Open Championship round three preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Open three-balls

2pts Justin Rose to win the Open at 7/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Rose and Joaquin Niemann to win their two-balls at 5/2 (General)

1pt treble Young, Lawrence & McKibbin to win their two-balls at 6/1 (General)

0.5pt five-fold on the above two-ball selections at 28/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

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Shane Lowry took advantage of a fine draw to move into a clear lead on day two of the Open, and anyone who finishes ahead of the Irishman this week will have a fantastic chance to get their hands on the Claret Jug.

It’s something Lowry has done before, of course, and from the front, too. Somehow, it’s hard to escape the feeling that he’s more likely to go ahead and boss this tournament than he would be in a run-of-the-mill tour event, with the stage and the conditions both bringing out his best.

First in approach play and second in putting, Lowry’s best is what we’ve been treated to so far and with the inexperienced Daniel Brown alongside him in the final group, prices of 2/1 and 25/1 respectively are hard to argue with – even if we almost never see such a chasm between two who’ve played similarly so far.

Dangers to Lowry likely lurk further down the leaderboard and at the prices, JUSTIN ROSE stands out. This would be some story were the US Open winner and former world number one to win having come through qualifying, but it’s absolutely possible and he’s done everything well to this point.

Given that his side of the draw averaged two strokes more than Lowry’s, Rose’s performance so far can be called equal to that of the Irishman and while I’ve said before that I don’t know as he’s a links natural in the way that Lowry is, his performance so far speaks for itself.

With three shots back to the remainder, including Rose’s playing partner Billy Horschel but more to the point Scottie Scheffler, Rose will be bang in the mix entering Sunday if he breaks par under what promise to be tricky conditions again today.

At 7/1, we’re on the right side of the deal. Rose remains a high-class operator when firing and if there’s anyone who can match Lowry for crowd support, it’ll be him.

There are some big names lurking a long way behind on paper but with relatively few players to pass, particularly at one-over par where you’ll find four major champions. Jon Rahm is among them and will have been annoyed not to finish off an excellent second round, but perhaps he can make a run at the places.

Unfortunately for these players, the pay-off for having only a dozen players ahead of them is that they tee off later, and with conditions perhaps getting tougher as the day goes on, they’d have looked more dangerous had they been going out before midday.

Another fascinating aspect of this third round is some of the pairings, with Patrick Cantlay playing with his close friend Xander Schauffele, both at one-under. Brooks Koepka plays with Dustin Johnson, too, and it would surprise nobody were either or both of these groups to catch fire.

As for Scheffler, of course he merits respect after a better putting day and if he can close the five-shot gap to Lowry even by one or two, he’ll enter the final round with a good chance. Still, 7/2 leaves no room for doubt.

Two-ball punters are spoilt for choice and we’ll start around lunchtime where CAMERON YOUNG (1205 BST) can take care of Kurt Kitayama.

Young boasts a fine Open record and arrived here in much the best form of the two. Given that he’s also a superior player, it’s surprising to see one firm offer even-money.

Kitayama produced perhaps his best links round so far on Friday but he’d be far from certain to back it up, even if it stems from good ball-striking. Young is value down to 4/6.

THRISTON LAWRENCE (1235 BST) bagged us a winning double on day two and I’d make him a slight favourite to beat Richard Mansell.

Lawrence holds the edge on major experience and form, and links pedigree. Both are significant entering the weekend of an Open and you’ve always the chance of a shocking day with the putter if opposing the talented Mansell.

TOM MCKIBBIN (1255 BST) lacks the Open experience of Emiliano Grillo, who plays this style of golf well, but can overcome that to boss their match.

McKibbin is enjoying a fantastic season and this is another small step towards his destination for 2025, the PGA Tour.

Key to siding with him though is that while he and Grillo have been statistically similar so far, McKibbin had much the worst of the draw over the first two rounds.

Among the later matches, Lowry is probably a fair price even at 1/2 given that this is a massive day for Brown, who arrived with no real form to speak of and has of course never been close to the lead in a major before.

Many will doubtless be keen to bump up multiple prices with Lowry but I’ll stick to JOAQUIN NIEMANN (1455 BST) and ROSE (1535).

Niemann is playing with Matty Jordan, a proven links performer who is enjoying another excellent Open to this point, and is a player I really like.

That being said, prices dictate and Niemann is a world-class golfer quoted at 4/5, despite having matched Jordan from a much worse draw. It feels big to me.

Finally, Rose has been three shots better than Horschel and with tee-times taken into account, it’s more like five. With that in mind, evens and upwards rates an obvious selection.

Posted at 0830 BST on 20/07/24

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