Golf betting tips: Open Championship round one preview and best bets

Open Championship betting tips: First round leader

1pt Collin Morikawa to lead after the first round at 33/1 (General)

1pt Wyndham Clark to lead after the first round at 66/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Luis Masaveu to lead after the first round at 500/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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• Scroll down for three-ball selections

If you needed further convincing that the Open Championship is just that bit different to the other three majors, ponder these two lists.

First, the names of players who shared the lead after round one at Royal Liverpool last year: Christo Lamprecht, Emiliano Grillo, Tommy Fleetwood. Second, the names of players who've lead the other three majors since the 2023 Masters: Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy.

Looking back further in the Open, there's a strange and probably meaningless tendency for opening leaderboards to in fact be populated by Americans, sometimes elite ones like Dustin Johnson, other times those just below that level, like JB Holmes, Kevin Kisner and, at St Andrews, Cameron Young. Throughout the earlier part of the previous decade, leaders were exclusively from the world's top 50 and while that didn't apply to Lamprecht, it did to Grillo.

Lamprecht's name and that of Tom Lewis in 2011 gives you two amateurs from the last dozen or so renewals and while there's a tendency towards earlier starters, when last we were at Troon it was Phil Mickelson, from an afternoon tee-time, who ran riot. Where does that leave us? Back where we began: the Open is different, far more volatile than the other three, and the weather is key.

Poring over the hour-by-hour forecast is probably no way to live but it does seem to hint at a potential advantage in the late afternoon on Thursday. Gusts are pretty much guaranteed throughout the mid-morning and remember, with a one-tee start, the marquee groups tend to be around 9.30am, whereas in a US Open they might be a good deal earlier. Such players could hit the difficult 9-12 stretch at quite a bad time.

The nature of the draw also means that the big names in the afternoon tee off around or after 2.30pm, meaning they won't be finished until almost 8. As of now, the forecast suggests, without promising, that the wind could begin to drop from around 4, which is about when they'll complete the easier opening six holes. By the time they turn back towards Royal Troon's clubhouse, conditions could be as kind as they were eight years ago.

Finding a potential bias like this will often determine whether you have a crack at the first-round leader market and my advice is to look closely at those final 10 or so groups on Thursday. Doing so gave me a shortlist of WYNDHAM CLARK, COLLIN MORIKAWA, Davis Thompson, Akshay Bhatia, and LUIS MASAVEU.

The latter may well stand out as he's a relative unknown, but Matt Cooper described him as 'very impressive with a fine links game' based largely on a runner-up finish in last year's Lytham Trophy. If there is to be another Lamprecht or indeed another Lewis, why not the Spaniard who tees off just before his club-mate, both having come through qualifying at the same site?

Plenty has been said about what was a fine Sunday for Spanish sport and Masaveu did lie 10th after round one of the Open de Espana on his tour-level debut, an experience he may be able to call upon. I don't mind taking a very small chance on him, tapping into Matt's reporting, and he's in a good three-ball which for now only a couple of firms have priced up. Charlie Lindh looks like he may struggle badly and Ryan van Velzen is beatable.

As for the others, Clark was seventh after round one last year having also made a fast start to the US Open, and since then he's led The PLAYERS. In form after back-to-back top-10 finishes, and riding high after a brilliant final round last week, 66/1 could look extremely generous if he does prove to have the best of the weather.

Morikawa meanwhile has been starting fast pretty much everywhere he's played this year. That's often true of first-round leaders in major championships and having been inside the top 25 after each of his last 10 opening rounds, he looks about as likely as anyone to give his running. Remarkably, he hasn't shot an over-par first round anywhere since this tournament last year, when his game wasn't in great shape.

With his putting as reliable as it has ever been and his chipping improved, Morikawa is enjoying a fine year which has already seen him contend for two of the three majors, as well as entering the final round of the other in ninth. He started strongly on his way to the Claret Jug in 2021 and may well be the latest big-name American to set the pace.

Golf betting tips: Open three-balls

2pt double McDonald and Niemann to win their three-balls at 14/5 (Sky Bet)

1pt double Poston and Morikawa to win their three-balls at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt double Kawamura and Wang to win their three-balls at 12/1 (bet365)

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McDonald to beat Leonard and Hamilton (0630 BST)

The very first three-ball of the Open Championship sees the last two Troon winners grouped with the local, JACK MCDONALD, and he should be far too good all things considered.

Granted, McDonald hasn't been tearing it up on the Challenge Tour but he was 11th three starts ago, and four of his six rounds since then have been sub-70. He knows Troon very well having first played there as a boy and is a member of a course nearby, so plenty of locals will be along to follow him on this dream Open debut.

I doubt he'll match Matty Jordan's exploits from last year but to win this he might just need to get round in 70-something, because Hamilton rarely plays competitive golf these days, and Leonard seldom threatens when he does. Leonard has only played one tournament at PGA Tour level in the last six seasons and missed the cut as you might expect.

According to DataGolf's 'True Strokes-Gained' profiles, McDonald is about a shot per round better than Leonard already. Even-money in what I'm near certain is a match between the two looks extremely generous and would do anywhere. Here in Troon, which for him is home, it's a steal.

Molinari to beat Rose and Stubbs (0741 BST)

I was keen to play in this group as Jasper Stubbs, only 4/1 or so, shouldn't win it. He's struggled quite badly since he was a shock winner of the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship, an event played on his doorstep, and a big number seems likely. Only if the other two also shoot themselves out of the tournament can he realistically cause a three-ball surprise.

The trouble is the other two. I was actually very keen to side with Francesco Molinari over Justin Rose, who I don't consider a links natural. Molinari's long-game has been decent for some time and he played better when returned to Europe last week. He also nearly won over in Dubai in January so while much of his form this year looks poor, beneath the surface you can find positives.

Unfortunately, bookmakers seem wise to this, and he's not much bigger than Rose. I'd be hoping we might be able to snaffle something close to 2/1, but at 7/5 and shorter he doesn't look reliable enough.

Niemann to beat Jaeger and Schenk (0903 BST)

The final morning selection is JOAQUIN NIEMANN, who soon will show that he can contend for, and potentially win, major championships. In fact having sided with him twice this year, at much shorter odds, it wasn't easy to leave him out of the outright staking plan at about 66/1. He's an exceptional talent whose shot-making ability, honed in many a practise round with Open contender Sergio Garcia, should make him an ideal fit.

For now perhaps we need him to offer us a few more signs of encouragement and the first can come with a solid start to the tournament, which should be enough to take care of Stephan Jaeger and Adam Schenk. The former rates a bigger threat but his form has cooled a little ahead of his Open debut and his putting has been poor. Schenk meanwhile has no top-50s in his last eight starts and shot 79-75 at Hoylake last year.

Kawamura to beat Andersen and Hutsby (1126 BST)

Minimum-stakes only for this one but MASAHIRO KAWAMURA is overpriced at a standout 11/4 and would be a bet down to 7/4.

Mason Andersen is a Korn Ferry Tour player with no links experience and he withdrew last time. Were this in the US, on the sort of course he's used to, he'd be a very strong favourite were his fitness assured. But that fitness is in doubt and links is the greatest of levellers.

With Hutsby making his Open debut late into his career, one which currently sees him mid-table on the Challenge Tour standings, Kawamura is the one to be on. He's been poor in Europe lately but showed more under links conditions when qualifying and was an excellent 39th on his sole previous Open start. You could just about make him favourite.

Poston to beat Burmester and Clarke (1348 BST)

Course is key here and while around St Andrews I'd take Dean Burmester, at Troon I give the edge to JT POSTON. He's done quite well in the majors this year, finishing mid-pack in two and only missing the cut at a long, soft Valhalla, where Burmester understandably fared better.

Around Pinehurst, with its greater subtleties, Poston did and he can repeat that at Troon, where his accuracy can help avoid the bunkers. There's basically nothing between these two on paper and it's the nature of this golf course which suggests therefore that Poston should be favourite. He isn't, and at 6/4, in a group completed by veteran Darren Clarke, he makes plenty of appeal.

Morikawa to beat Kim and Burns (1448 BST)

I won't repeat the case made earlier for COLLIN MORIKAWA making another strong start, and if he does he should land this three-ball. Si Woo Kim remains in the putting doldrums and his record in majors is not what we should expect from a player so capable. That also applies to Sam Burns, who has no real links pedigree, and whose was a lowly 55th last time.

Burns might have benefited from a Scottish Open prep. Morikawa contended there and is a strong favourite.

Wang to beat Horsfield and Iwasaki (1627 BST)

Finally, JEUNGHUN WANG showed enough when eighth last time to be worth chancing. He's proven in the wind and is on the roll-of-honour in Doha, one of the best non-UK links form guides you'll find. Also a winner in Mauritius when it howled, he won't mind conditions one bit.

Sam Horsfield might and a record of 67-MC in the Open says a lot about how difficult he can find links golf. He's been better on the LIV Golf circuit lately but odds-on prices would only make sense around the sort of course he likes, where he can drive others into submission.

I'd be disappointed to lose to Aguri Iwasaki, who has missed six cuts in eight and wasn't a factor when a DP World Tour member last year. Wang is value at 2/1 and upwards.

Posted at 1030 BST on 17/07/24

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