Golf betting tips: First-round three-ball best bets for the Farmers Insurance Open

Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open

1pt trixie Kim (11/8), Jaeger (23/20) and Rodgers (6/5) to win their three-balls

• Best combined odds available with bet365 at the time of writing; BoyleSports, Paddy Power and Betfair also offer prices on all three
• A trixie is made up of four bets on three selections, with 3x doubles (AB, AC, BC) and 1x treble (ABC); two winners are required for a return

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Kim to beat Bramlett and Young

• North Course, 1712 GMT

MICHAEL KIM has made an excellent start to the year and he can follow up last week's sixth place with a good effort at Torrey Pines, a course he knows like the back of his hand.

Kim went to high school here and despite an up-and-down pro career, he's made the cut five times in six appearances in the Farmers since he became a PGA Tour member. Given his struggles, which included being the worst driver on the PGA Tour for a while, it's an impressive return.

Truth be told he's more comfortable at the South Course based on the numbers but the North Course should be no excuse and would actually be my preferred option this time, given how wet it is likely to be. Joseph Bramlett is a powerhouse who might just cope better on Thursday, so Wednesday is the time to play Kim.

Bramlett is another Californian with a solid record in this event, but he's only making his third start back after a six-month lay-off. That's been the story of a frustrating career and based on last week's effort, where he missed the cut by nine shots, a return to Torrey Pines comes too soon in his recovery.

Carson Young completes the three-ball and is a solid player, but he shot 74-76 on his event debut and isn't particularly well suited to the demands of either course. Kim at odds-against looks the bet of the day.

Jaeger to beat Martin and Buckley

• South Course, 1712 GMT

Over on the South Course, STEFAN JAEGER has an ideal profile for a three-ball bet as he's one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour at his level.

There's a slight niggle over his modest record in this event, but I would note that he's played the South Course better (in relative terms) than he has the North in three of his four appearances, the exception being 2022 when he shot 65 at the latter.

Last year's opening 69 came here at the South Course, where he played beautifully bar one hole, leaning on his reliable driving. The German has really come into his own over the past 12 months, last missing a cut in February 2023, and not since March has he shot higher than 72 in the first round.

He's in against Ben Martin, a shorter hitter who has missed seven of his last 10 cuts and whose Farmers record is miserable, and Hayden Buckley, who is badly out of sorts. Both make their money by driving it straight but much more is needed at the South in particular, where Buckley shot 82 on debut and 80 last year.

Martin was only two shots better and if Jaeger continues in the form he's displayed for fully a year now, he ought to be too good just about anywhere. At the South Course, softened by rain, his advantage only increases.

Rodgers to beat Blair and Shelton

• South Course, 1807 GMT

The course is again key as PATRICK RODGERS holds a significant driving advantage over Zac Blair and Robby Shelton, which the South should help to expose. While he's consistently among the top third of drivers on the PGA Tour, Blair and Shelton both rank in the bottom third at best.

Rodgers also went to college in California and knows both courses really well. He has a good record in the event in general, finishing fourth in 2017 having led through 54 holes and then ninth in 2020, and these were both renewals won by world-class players.

His Sony Open effort last time out was the best of his career and he's closer to the full package than he's perhaps ever been. We've certainly seen improvement with his approach play and combined with that strong driving and occasionally top-class putting, he really ought to be contending somewhere soon enough. It could be here.

Blair is one of the shortest hitters in the field and while yes, he was 11th on debut when conquering the South Course, he gained a whopping 10 strokes with the putter in three rounds, which hides some poor ball-striking. Since then he's never really been a factor, his subsequent best of 21st built on a strong round at the North.

He was 62nd last week, marginally better than Shelton who missed the cut, and both are more likely to pop up on shorter courses than the monster they face on Wednesday. With Shelton crooked and Blair short, Rodgers can win this off the tee and if he doesn't, he's probably sharper in all other departments as well at the moment.

Posted at 1430 GMT on 23/01/24

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