Outright verdict
The final round of the Farmers Insurance Open almost always delivers and the leaderboard heading into today's promises much of the same, with four maiden Europeans followed by a host of talented players, many of them the kind of powerhouse who can produce a 66 that could pinch it.
That's happened many times here down the years, most recently with Luke List in 2022, and we have hopes of a repeat through Taylor Montgomery, Will Zalatoris and Tony Finau, all within four of Stephan Jaeger's lead.
Jaeger putted poorly in round three to let the others in a bit and Thomas Detry's remarkable mistake on 18 did likewise. We've seen all week how Detry can struggle to control spin with his wedges and not going for the green on the final hole was a strange decision to say the least.
Perhaps being two back will suit the Belgian and 14/1 is quite tempting. He has a reputation which is probably slightly harsh and we should remember how well he did play in the final round of the Scottish Open in 2021, losing a play-off to Min Woo Lee which also featured Matt Fitzpatrick.
I'd be looking at him and Nicolai Hojgaard as the best options among the top four but this could be wide open if they tread water, which is entirely feasible. It's unfortunate that Finau's improved putting didn't last into the third round as he'd be favourite otherwise, but perhaps he'll rediscover it today and with four in the mix for places, I'm happy to let things run.
Rose to beat Gotterup and Ghim
The final round three-ball coupon is a bit less appealing than previous days but JUSTIN ROSE looks a very solid proposition against Chris Gotterup and Doug Ghim.
Taking on a powerhouse like Gotterup around here comes with risks but we're doing so with a genuine Torrey Pines specialist and former winner of the event in Rose, who stormed home in the final round of The Sentry earlier this month.
He got by on his short-game on Friday but had struck the ball well at the South Course on Thursday and with his title defence at Pebble Beach to come next week, he'll be eager to use today as a platform.
Gotterup had a shocker on the greens yesterday and is still very raw. With that comes the sort of volatility that brings risks but I'm happy taking him on, as I am Ghim, who likes the course but would prefer it firmer and effectively shorter. He arrived in poor form and Rose's class should count.
Norrman to beat Lashley and Campos
It's been a slow start to 2024 for the talented VINCENT NORRMAN but his long-game looks to have clicked now returned to the sort of course which is made for his game.
Norrman won on a soft, driver-heavy course last summer, then again at the K Club to capture the Irish Open, and his driver is his weapon. It was therefore encouraging to see him rank fourth in strokes-gained off the tee in Friday's third round.
That's where this might be won and lost, a formula we've put to use with some success this week. Nate Lashley was among the worst drivers in the field and Rafael Campos mid-pack, which means opportunities to score are few and far between given how Torrey Pines is playing.
If Norrman continues to put himself in position off the tee that only widens the advantage he has over his playing partners and I'll pair him with Rose for a double that pays upwards of 4/1 with every firm offering prices on both.
Posted at 0835 GMT on 27/01/24
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