While the top of the Czech Masters leaderboard is absent of pre-tournament favourites and not exactly packed with pedigree, the top three in the betting heading into round four are all in fact winners already in 2024.
Jesper Svensson broke our hearts when capturing the Singapore Classic, David Ravetto had already triumphed down on the Challenge Tour, and just last week Brandon Robinson Thompson won his second title that level, turning it into a rout from the front.
Those three provide quite the contrast with Andrew Johnston and Ross Fisher, both seeking to end long spells without silverware, while Adrien Saddier is yet to win on the DP World Tour but was close to doing so on the PGA Tour little more than a year ago.
The presence of Ravetto and Saddier along with Alex Levy leading the Finnish Challenge makes me wonder how much the Paris Olympics have played a part, if at all. I'd imagine French sportspeople must've felt pretty inspired by it, especially someone like Levy who will know that had things turned out differently, he could've played both a Games and a Ryder Cup at Le Golf National.
A gallic double is entirely plausible across the top two tours in Europe and DAVID RAVETTO does look the value here at four-times the price of Svensson, despite there being only one shot between them.
While my selections have never threatened to get involved in either event, the idea that strong drivers would make their way to the top of both leaderboards clearly had some merit and, despite his frame, Ravetto is certainly one of those.
He has contending experience on the DP World Tour and took his chance well in the DiData Pro-Am in South Africa, for all that he had a little help there. The reason his price is close to double-figures is that he arrived here with no form to speak of, but clearly the break in the calendar has done him some good and on the basis of the 54 holes we've seen so far, he's overpriced.
Ravetto is the pick of the leaders in par-five scoring as things stand and it's hard not to be taken with the way he's hit it. These comments could also apply to Svensson and he is the most likely winner, but the gap between them is simply too wide, and there's the potential bonus of Ravetto having compatriot Saddier alongside him in the final three-ball.
Svensson did impress in Singapore but was five back entering the final round and this will be his first 54-hole lead on any major circuit. One bogey in 54 holes and the way he recovered from an unsettling pull off the 16th tee sets him up nicely for what is a new challenge, but the market appears to be overrating him.
I'd much rather take Ravetto and it's tempting in fact to spread a few more bets further down, with Robinson Thompson the right kind of price and those alongside him opposable. It would be a mighty effort were Johnston to win while Fisher, who hasn't done so for a decade, will surely find one or two too good again.
Andy Sullivan is the obvious one as he hasn't holed much, he arrived in-form, he has winning pedigree and he's only three back, but at twice the price FRANCESCO LAPORTA rates better value.
Another strong driver, the Italian has generally impressed when in with a chance and while his form has been patchy, it was at around this time last year he won from out of nowhere in neighbouring Germany. At 33s, he's the cover shot.
Posted at 1915 BST on 17/08/23
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