Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

Golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

2pts win Tommy Fleetwood at 7/1 (General)

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The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship is beautifully poised through 54 holes, bookmakers betting to 3/1 the field which would not have seemed likely at the beginning of the week. With Rory McIlroy testing his remodelled swing, Tommy Fleetwood unable to fully build on a dream start and Tyrrell Hatton also stuttering, this has become wide open and a fabulous opportunity for someone to secure the biggest win of their career.

That trio are still involved and while two players have separated themselves, there are 25 covered by just three shots in the chasing pack. Given that we've seen a couple of 62s and a course-record 61, it's difficult to dismiss many with confidence in what is a only small field. No wonder nobody is given more than about a one-in-four chance of emerging on top.

Paul Waring leads but securing a second DP World Tour win in an event like this still feels an enormous ask. Perhaps he can take inspiration from Robert Rock, who famously downed Tiger Woods to do just that, and we've seen plenty of surprise champions in this. Still, his five-shot halfway lead shrank throughout round three and, with just one shot left in hand, I'm not sure many will really fancy him to convert.

Worryingly, Waring didn't seem to, either. He talked after his round about how the putter felt 'shaky' – it's always been a weakness – before thanking Sky Sports reporter Tim Barter for reminding him what was at stake. Waring's 40th birthday is around the corner and he may never get a better chance to win a really big tournament. Doing so might help earn him a PGA Tour card too, so there is an awful lot on the line.

PGA Tour membership is 18 holes away for Niklas Norgaard, winner of the British Masters earlier in the autumn. He fell over the line there but it's done his self-belief the world of good, the Dane speaking about how a year ago he felt like 'a guest' in these tournaments, but now knows he belongs. Of the two, he appeared the most confident and rightly so, given his winning form and what he can do to a golf ball.

At 7/2 he's the man to beat but with Shane Lowry among those sharing third, despite a quiet back-nine which at least ended on a high, I want to add TOMMY FLEETWOOD.

Fleetwood's only bogeys on Saturday were three-putts and I suspect he's got a really big finish in him, having looked in superb touch from tee-to-green. Twice a winner of this title in the past, and a winner again in the Middle East to begin the year, he's in a lovely position playing in the penultimate group.

He's won the Nedbank from five and six shots adrift and with doubts surrounding Waring, and Norgaard still having a bit to prove under the gun, this looks an excellent chance to book-end the campaign with silverware.

Thorbjorn Olesen also won in the Middle East at the start of the year and, playing in the same three-ball, he's respected at 12/1. The nagging concern is that he's chosen this path back to the PGA Tour, rather than via the FedEx Cup, and from just outside the 10 available card spots it's a big day for him.

Perhaps it won't stop this in-form, proven winner, but Olesen missed out narrowly in France when a big chance presented itself and might fall short again here and while we're at it, Sebastian Soderberg also has PGA Tour membership to play for. Given his finishing efforts this year, it's a big weight to carry into another Sunday in the mix.

From a further shot back, Hatton makes less appeal at the prices than Robert MacIntyre, twice a winner already this year. MacIntyre won the Italian Open from a similar position and looked like he'd repeated the trick in last year's Scottish Open, before getting his hands on that trophy earlier this summer.

At 20/1, he's on the shortlist while I'm certainly not giving up on Lowry, who is somehow right in the mix having been left behind on day one. Lowry has played beautifully since and we'll just have to hope his putter holds up having been better this week. If it does, he can avoid a repeat of his two previous course starts, in which he faded from similar positions, and at least land the place money.

Lowry, Fleetwood and MacIntyre look the main candidates to take down the front two then, and at the prices I'm keen to add Fleetwood to pre-tournament bets on Lowry. These players could all benefit from the fact that we've not just got a huge title on the line here, but several career paths.

Posted at 1345 GMT on 09/11/24

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