When Jack Nicklaus redesigned the Championship Course at PGA National he took care to make 15, 16 and 17 brutal holes and they were collectively named ‘The Bear Trap’. In yesterday’s third round that three-part test achieved everything the Golden Bear hoped for.

Sweden’s Jesper Svensson was tied for the lead when he reached the par-3 15th, found water, made triple bogey and is now six strokes adrift. Taylor Montgomery had thrashed half a dozen front nine birdies and was one clear of the field on the tee at 15. He also found the water, not once but twice (the first almost hit an alligator) on his way to a seven. Michael Kim’s tee shot at the same hole ricocheted off rocks into mud and he got away with a bogey. Wonderful carnage.

By the end of 54 holes, Jake Knapp (who set the first round pace with a 59) still leads on 16-under 197. Michael Kim is one behind with Russell Henley, Ben Griffin and Doug Ghim tied for third a further shot in arrears. Rickie Fowler and Montgomery share sixth on 13-under, and there are 23 players within five shots of the lead.

Sepp Straka will tell you that it is possible to win from five back because he did so in 2022, but he was sharing second after three rounds. The leader Daniel Berger carded a final round 74 to allow the pack to overwhelm him. In all 18 tournament visits to PGA National, the leader was within three shots of the lead 17 times and tied second or better 16 times.

A blustery wind is not unknown in this part of the world yet the forecast is for nothing too difficult. However the players did report the course drying out and firming up while Ghim drew an interesting distinction. He began by making the point that playing three round events in college on Florida Bermuda didn’t prepare him for the all-important fourth day of a course having been set up to PGA Tour standards. “The courses really bake out,” he said. “My first time playing Bay Hill on a Sunday was a completely different animal to me.” (There’s a lot animal talk this week.)

Knapp made a fast start at Pebble Beach, hung around the top 10 at Torrey Pines and was fourth in this event last year when closing with a 66. He led a third tier Canadian Tour event by one after 54 holes in 2022 and last year’s Mexico Open by four at the same stage – he won both by two strokes. He admitted to being “a little bit all over the place” in the third round but consoled himself in “doing a good job of staying patient and taking what the course gave me”. He was in no doubt that strategy has changed from the pin-hunting of Thursday’s 59: “It’s tougher out there … more conservative targets.” He’s the 16/5 favourite.

Kim, winner of the 2018 John Deere Classic, has six top 15 finishes in his last 10 starts including three in his last three, and the highlight was second in Phoenix. That form has fuelled this week’s effort because in six previous course visits he’d made just two cuts, never made a top 50 and had gone sub-70 just once. He’s done it three times this week and is 5/1.

Griffin won on the Canadian Tour back in 2018 but has since then finished top three six times on the first and second tier without winning. He was fourth in Mexico last week when hanging around the top six through the last 54 holes. Ghim is similar in having no win at this level and limited experience at the top end – he was second in the Players Championship at this stage last year, though. They’re 8/1 and 11/1 respectively.

The first selection is RUSSELL HENLEY who first hinted at a fondness for Florida when winning on the Valley Course at Sawgrass on the Korn Ferry Tour and then landed this event in 2014. A year earlier he had been T13 on course debut. He was also eighth in 2020 and third in 2021.

He’s missed just one cut since the 2023 Open at Royal Liverpool. There are more no-cut events these days so it’s a less impressive run than it once would have been, but his golf has been excellent. “I know that I’m not the longest player out here, and some things feel a little bit harder to me than maybe the way it looks for other guys,” he said yesterday. “I just keep my head down and work diligently. I’ve tried to stay really competitive with myself and keep pushing myself.”

That gritty, realistic outlook probably helps on a course that by day four requires exactly that sort of approach. He hasn’t won as often as he might have since his third PGA Tour win in 2017. He’s had six top three finishes since the middle of 2019 with just the one win, but he also said last night: “I hit it amazing. Hit it great off the tee.” If he doesn’t get ahead of himself with that feeling this is the ideal spot for him to add a fifth win and 6/1 is the clincher. I’d have him inside Kim’s price and closer to Knapp’s.

What of other threats? Fowler (16/1) is within three and a former winner and runner-up in the event. The 2022 champion Sepp Straka is four back after a trio of 67s. So he’s closer to top spot by shots than when he won but he needs a lot more contenders to struggle if he’s to win again. He’s 22/1.

We’ll finish with a two-ball double. First up is DANIEL BERGER who lost a play-off on his course debut in 2015 (closing with a 65) in addition to messing up that big lead when fourth in 2022 (he was also fourth in 2020). He’s getting back to his old self, has recent seconds at Sea Island and Phoenix, was T12 last time out and at 12-under will feel he has a chance rather than being genuinely in-contention. He’s up against JJ Spaun who has a best of T21 in four course starts.

Doug Ghim doesn’t have the best record when around the top six after three rounds. True, last time it happened he added a 64 but that was at Summerlin and this Sunday will be tougher. On the main tour he has gone backwards the other five times he’s been in these situations. We’ll take him on with RICKIE FOWLER’s veteran wiles and course experience. The double pays 2.65/1 with William Hill.

Posted at 1030 GMT on 02/03/25

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