Golf betting tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets for the NMB Championship

Golf betting tips: NMB Championship

3pts e.w. JC Ritchie at 16/1 (BoyleSports, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. JJ Senekal at 66/1 (Unibet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Benjamin Hebert at 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Pierre Pineau at 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Bjorn Akesson at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

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There's one unwritten rule in foursomes golf that you'll often hear spoken about during a Ryder, Solheim, Presidents or Walker Cup: never apologise. And it's a rule that for the most part should be transferrable to writing golf betting previews, which may not be a serious job but is not a particularly easy one at times.

It did however dawn on me, later than it should have, that there is a subtle but significant difference between previewing PGA Tour events, live on Sky Sports, and Challenge Tour events, which are not broadcast. People want to bet on the PGA Tour and a preview might help them. A Challenge Tour preview is probably more likely to convince someone who otherwise had no intention of doing so.

I therefore apologise if you're among that cohort for what has been a trying few weeks. Not only was I just too early with Mikael Lindberg, but two confident selections for the DiData Pro-Am were out of it by Friday, literally so in Laurie Canter's case. He withdrew after a very promising start; Jayden Schaper played worse than he has in many months.

The plan was always to cover these four events that are co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour for one reason above all others: I do believe they present an opportunity for punters. To my mind that is underlined by the fact that the last two weeks have thrown up 100/1 winners who were dropping back to the Challenge Tour from the DP World Tour. Levels in golf are important and both were there to be found.

So, the plan remains, but I'll think long and hard about whether any Challenge Tour previews are necessary in the future. We had a nice 80/1 winner in Finland last year and a couple of close calls, but I'll admit that I've felt uneasy about covering it lately. I don't consider it my job to lure anyone into placing a bet and the moment it is, I'll find something else to do.

Ritchie riches?

We sign off then with the NMB Championship, which first of all is an awful title. This is the Nelson Mandela Bay Championship. Imagine naming your tournament in honour of Nelson Mandela and then initialising it to make it sound like it's sponsored by some insurance firm. The mind boggles.

Anyway, the event itself is the weakest of the four so far, a byproduct of the corresponding Kenya Open, which has room for plenty of those who had been struggling for DP World Tour starts and instead were playing in these co-sanctioned events, including David Ravetto.

That's a shame, because Humewood GC is a genuine links course and it's always fun to see how better players get on when faced with such a test. As you'd expect, the weather determines scoring and Ernie Els won an SA Open here in 24-under when it was calm. The forecast this week promises strong winds from Friday onwards.

That shouldn't bother former Scottish Open champion Brandon Stone and it's interesting that he's here, because he could've played in Kenya. Sixth last week and ninth at Humewood last year, Stone is the obvious one now that his long-game looks back in good health, but wind equals missed greens and his short-game remains a concern.

Putting problems have kept JC RITCHIE from establishing himself at a higher level but he might just have solved them based on recent evidence and looks to have an outstanding chance if that is the case.

Ritchie was 10th at Humewood last time he played it, when nowhere near the player he is today. He arrived that week on the back of three missed cuts but was always close to the lead, while back in 2015 he was excellent for two of the three rounds when well down the Sunshine Tour rankings.

A strong start to the 2016 edition of that event, the Sun Boardwalk Challenge, further underlines that he can score around here and since these appearances, he's gone on to win 12 times on the Sunshine Tour.

I like the fact that one of those came at Ebotse, a course which is somewhat similar, and he has form at some other potentially correlating courses such as Serengeti, Fancourt, Royal Swazi and St Francis Links.

Ritchie has won four of these events since the Challenge Tour came to South Africa just four years ago and a fifth looks well within reach after successive top-10s, including when probably suffering the worst of the draw last time.

Dylan Naidoo and Luca Filippi are two of the better youngsters in this field and it's a little surprising to see 40/1 available about the former, given that he was a touch shorter for a stronger, more competitive Cape Town Open two weeks ago.

Although disappointing there, Naidoo has put that right with 15th in the DiData, his best yet at Fancourt, and could go well. Similar comments apply to Filippi, whose 10th place last week came in an event where he'd never previously made the cut, and both have the ability to win at this level.

French fancies

My preference though is for BENJAMIN HEBERT, whose experience could go a long way.

A multiple winner on the Challenge Tour, one of its most successful players in fact, Hebert has been threatening to add to his tally since he was forced to drop back down to this level.

Third through 54 holes last week before a poor final round saw him drop to ninth, he'd earlier led at halfway in Cape Town, so he looks close to putting four rounds together once more.

This weaker field and shorter course could prove the difference at a time when French golf is flying, and his links pedigree includes top-fives in the Scottish Open and the Dunhill Links, plus eighth in an Irish Open won by Jon Rahm.

He's neat and tidy, a proven fairway-finder who hits a lot of greens, and staying out of trouble could be key to surviving what looks set to be a proper test. Like Ritchie, Hebert's long-game could well help him to do just that.

Hebert was fifth in the Netherlands last May after a similar run of playing well for two or three rounds per event, then fourth in Spain after he'd started brightly in his previous two starts, so I'm keen to take the hint and hope he can emulate compatriot Ravetto.

Although he lacks Hebert's experience, PIERRE PINEAU is also a Challenge Tour winner and that came on an exposed course in Portugal.

Anyone who has followed his burgeoning career closely will know by now that big numbers often ruin plenty of good work and there may not be a more prolific birdie-maker in the field, nor many who are more likely to make a double-bogey.

The hope is his stellar short-game is of elevated value with the wind up and he certainly has shown promise under these conditions, with 10th in Australia and 11th in Mauritius little more than a year ago.

Pineau was third through 54 holes last week and though poor on Sunday has ultimately produced successive good performances, finishing 18th and 25th, and now he gets to return to a course at which he qualified for the knockout section of the South African Amateur back in 2017.

He played here last year, too, ruining his chance on Thursday but responding with an excellent second-round 69, and if he can somehow keep those doubles off the card he certainly has the game to contend again in an event like this.

At the risk of going all-in on France, Romain Wattel has plenty of ability and fought back after a slow start at Fancourt. He has links form, too, but in general his game has looked below the required standard bar a couple of weeks last summer.

Christoffer Bring is a young Danish player who was on the DP World Tour last season, compatriot Hamish Brown has been on the fringes in all three starts this year, and there are a handful of other young players like Anton Albers, Quim Vidal and Ben Schmidt who have shown some signs of encouragement as they find their way in the game.

Back up the betting, Lindberg says links golf isn't really his bag and I'm far from convinced Daniel van Tonder merits much shorter prices than he has been going off at lately, albeit he does have a touch of class for the grade.

Jaco Prinsloo rates the obvious one having been competing at a higher level and is respected having closed with a round of 62 for second place a year ago, but preference is for JJ SENEKAL.

Granted, he was bang in-form when third here last year, but he might not be all that far away having missed a couple of cuts on the number since an excellent seventh in what was a windswept Challenge Tour Grand Final.

Last week's recovery from an opening 76 was impressive at a set of courses where he's not often played well, whereas here at Humewood he's been sixth, 19th and third from six attempts, a record almost identical to that of Prinsloo.

I like the fact Senekal is a past winner at St Francis Links and has been runner-up at Serengeti, where he almost always has been competitive, and he popped up at virtually all the exposed, links-like courses I looked at.

Having won one of these co-sanctioned events last year I'm happy to get him on-board at anything 50/1-plus.

Finally, I want to side with BJORN AKESSON at anything bigger than 50s.

The player of the year on the Nordic Golf League in 2023, Akesson returned to action in the SDC Open three weeks ago where he missed the cut by a single shot.

It was a decent reintroduction and I suspect Humewood could help him to improve further, as he's a former runner-up in the Boys Amateur whose DP World Tour record includes top-10 finishes at coastal tests Santo da Serra and St Omer, plus a generally good record in South Africa.

Akesson's career stalled thereafter and he quit the game in 2019, but he's back now and looked better than ever on home soil last year. The NGL is seriously competitive and Akesson managed three wins in 24 starts, finishing in the top 10 of over 70% of them.

The previous year's one-two were John Axelsen and Simon Forsstrom, the latter going on to dominate Qualifying School and then win on the DP World Tour, with Lindberg and Niklas Moller others who've recently used it as a springboard to bigger and better things.

The acid test now comes as he gets starts on the Challenge Tour but that return was decent enough and my eye is drawn to the fact that it was here, at Humewood, that he played his first pro event outside of Scandinavia after coming out of retirement, finishing an excellent 25th.

Akesson went on to lead at halfway in Finland later that year, playing on limited status, before the drop down to the NGL saw him prove that he's simply too good for that level. Playing out of Barseback, he's used to dealing with the kind of wind we're expecting, and on ability alone he looks overpriced.

Posted at 2010 GMT on 20/02/24

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