Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Wyndham Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Wyndham Championship

1pt e.w. Harris English at 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Taylor Moore at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Matt Kuchar at 90/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Andrew Novak at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Alex Smalley at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 110/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ben Kohles at 110/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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When people talk about fairways-and-greens golf, they're referring to courses like Sedgefield Country Club. This old, classical, Donald Ross design is all about keeping the ball in play – there is no other PGA Tour event where three of the last five champions ranked inside the top five in both fairways and greens. A further three winners since 2014 were inside the top 10 in both and this is undoubtedly a test of precision over power.

Last year, Lucas Glover provided an extreme example of what's required, hitting more fairways and more greens than anyone else. So superior were his approach shots that he didn't need an exceptional week with the putter, although he more than made his share. Before him, Tom Kim showed that a dazzling putting display can take you all the way in what's always a shootout. He too was highly accurate from tee-to-green.

Sedgefield then is a bit different to most recent venues and in some ways it's a strange place to end the regular season; an attempt, perhaps, to hold on to something dear in a sport, and on a golf tour, where power is king. If you need further evidence of what works, Glover, habitual contender Russell Henley and former champions Si Woo Kim and Ryan Moore are four of the leading 15 in the current driving accuracy table, where Tom Kim and JT Poston are close behind.

While much here in North Carolina remains unaltered, this is no longer the final chance to keep hold of your card, as it had been for a decade until 2023. Instead of worrying about the threat of losing full status, the only number that really matters for now is the top 70, who after this week enter the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Those safely within that mark can look towards 30th, which gets you to East Lake and opens up a world of opportunities for 2025, but the top 70 is the only thing that will be decided over the next few days.

In 63rd place after a poor season which had started so brightly is Jordan Spieth but, unlike Justin Thomas last year, he's safe for now. The last vulnerable spot is 65th, currently occupied by Nick Dunlap, and it would take something more freakish than his 500/1 AmEx win for the youngster to become the first player to win twice in a season and miss the Playoffs from here. Still, we can dream about this objectively hilarious scenario playing out, can't we?

Much more likely is that zero, one or at most two players jump from out to in although 'bubble boy' Victor Perez will do well to avoid falling just short, as he did last week. The Frenchman is not the only one making the trip from Paris 2024 – close to 20 Olympians are in the field – but while Abraham Ancer defied a longer journey in 2021, for Perez those additional factors could be problematic as he seeks to make it to Southwind, days after he fell just short of earning a medal in his home Olympics.

I'm drawn to some of those who have their sights set on a likely drained Perez, among whom MATT KUCHAR rates the pick even if he has the most to do.

Kuchar needs to win to advance and while everyone here is set on achieving that goal, for him there's an added layer of significance. Kuchar is the only player who has so far qualified for every edition of the Playoffs and while the odds are now stacked against him keeping that streak alive, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility.

Certainly, the streak is on Kuchar's mind and it must surely have played a part in his back-to-form third place at the 3M Open, where he'd never previously been a factor.

"It's why I'm here and at Wyndham as well, just trying to make sure to give myself as many chances as I can to crack the top 70, make the Playoffs," he said. "Yeah, one of those things you think, gosh, I haven't lost my job in a long time, I certainly don't want this year to be the year I lose my job. It's been a lot of work, but hopefully things keep going the right direction."

That performance in Minnesota wasn't exactly easy to forecast but there had been signs since May that he was starting to improve. Mid-pack in two Signature Events and the US Open, he was a good 17th at Colonial in amongst this run and later added 25th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where a soft course was against him.

Missing the cut at Deere Run represented a backwards step but he bounced back in style last time and perhaps ought to have won, as his typically assured putting let him down badly. Kuchar's approach play, which had been coming to the boil, was at career-best levels and he gained strokes off the tee at the sort of course which allows shorter hitters to do so. Sedgefield is another of those.

First in putting as recently as May and good several times since then, I'm happy to pin hopes on that club coming alive and if it does, there's no reason he can't contend.

Certainly, the course won't be an excuse. Kuchar first played here in 2021 following five missed cuts in a row elsewhere, and was in the mix at halfway before fading to 29th. Returning two years later, 38th place amid another quiet spell would've been much better had the putter performed as well as it had done on debut.

Those two efforts are encouraging but the biggest hint that this fits him well is the fact that he's a past champion at Sawgrass. Davis Love, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim and Sergio Garcia have all done the double and that's more than a third of winners here at Sedgefield who have also captured The PLAYERS. Kevin Kisner and Adam came within a shot of doing so, too.

Kuchar then has a lot in his favour and while tempting to view his contending third as a flash in the pan as a long career continues its decline, around a course like this one he has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

English to bring it home at last

Next on the list is HARRIS ENGLISH, who I've long felt would be an appropriate winner of this.

Granted, he's not necessarily the most accurate but often in the past, he's produced his best golf at courses which, like this one, allow for less than driver off plenty of tees. Last year he was third in fairways at Sedgefield and that's an indication of how comfortable he is here.

Also third in strokes-gained approach, it was another 'what might have been' Wyndham Championship for English, who hasn't yet placed in nine tries but has so often shown abundant promise. Eight times he's gained strokes ball-striking and on seven of those he's done so by being better than average both off the tee and with his approaches.

As yet he's not found the hot putting week required but the potential is always there with English, whose last win came on a short par 70, and I think he's playing well enough to win. That might not seem obvious with a quick glance at his form, but he's missed only three cuts all year and after hitting it well at the Scottish Open, he made the weekend from a bad draw at Troon.

The fact English already has his spot in the Playoffs wrapped up and is one good week from East Lake confirms that there's been plenty of good stuff this season and this class act is a definite threat.

Putter key for Putnam

At the head of the market, Sungjae Im brings such a compelling blend of course and current form that he's hard to overlook. He may feel he was unlucky not to be in Paris and with two of his compatriots having won this event in recent seasons, it could well be his turn.

In truth, he's a very fair price, but I'll keep speculating and would prefer to chance my arm with ANDREW PUTNAM and ANDREW NOVAK.

Putnam is 72nd in the FedEx Cup and arguably the most likely to play his way into the Playoffs, given Davis Riley's struggles since he won in May.

By contrast, Putnam is coming to the boil, his irons really starting to fire now having been second and seventh in strokes-gained approach over his last two starts. His usual accuracy (25th for the season) had been missing for a short time but switching back to an old driver set-up helped and he's quickly started hitting more fairways.

Putnam was 21st two starts ago then 19th at the 3M Open, but that doesn't tell the whole tale: he was third at halfway in the latter event and after a shocking Saturday, it was at least encouraging to see him bounce back in the final round. It had been a while since he was in the mix and perhaps he just needed to remember what it's like at the weekend.

Hopefully he can step forward from that and while his first two efforts at Sedgefield weren't especially encouraging, subsequent back-to-back T27s have been. During these last two appearances he's shot a second-round 64 in 2022 and been close to contention despite never really getting the putter firing, ranking outside the top 40 both times.

At his best, Putnam is accurate, his irons can be outstanding, and he can putt the lights out (32nd this year, 12th last). That description covers many a former winner of this event and he's a potential candidate if he can find a little something on the greens, which he certainly did for three of the four rounds last time.

Novak isn't quite as accurate as I'd like but I'm nevertheless drawn to him for four reasons.

First, at 83rd in the FedEx Cup standings he's another with realistic ambitions of making the Playoffs. You could say he'd deserve it as with three top-10s and several other excellent performances this year, he's played better than several who've been gifted points through invites to no-cut events. Novak is a lofty 21st in strokes-gained total, which puts him inside the top 10 among this field.

Secondly, his form at Sedgefield might appear modest, but is in fact somewhat encouraging. On both starts so far he's arrived in pretty terrible shape yet struck the ball very well, first ranking last in putting to miss the cut and then finishing 33rd without much assistance from that club a year ago. The bigger picture is that he's well above average with the putter.

Thirdly and relatedly, he's playing some really good golf this time, his form in the US of late reading 14-20-7-24 (MC in Scotland), and lastly he's from North Carolina. Five of just 16 course winners came from either North or South Carolina, while the very first man to win the Wyndham here at Sedgefield, Carl Pettersson, has lived locally for a long time. At a previous venue, Scott Hoch and Mark O'Meara joined Love as popular local champions.

Novak is increasingly looking like one of the most underrated players on the PGA Tour and it would be fully deserved were he to bag the top-five finish he'll need to earn a first crack at the Playoffs. Having been around the lead last time, returning home might make all the difference.

Matthew NeSmith is from South Carolina, has two top-10s in his last three and once won an AJGA event here at Sedgefield so he's of interest, while higher up the betting Brian Harman also won that event and has a couple of top-10s in this one. He missed the cut at Troon but from a bad draw and could bounce back in a field desperately lacking in obvious candidates as he seeks Presidents Cup selection.

I prefer BEN KOHLES, another on offer at big prices in what looks a wide-open tournament.

At second in driving accuracy, this ought to be his kind of course and while yet to show it, he did open with a round of 65 on his only recent start, two years ago. Kohles was out of sorts at the time but two top-25s in his last three, plus some promise between the two, means his game is in better shape for this latest try.

The Wyndham is a special event for him as, having won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2012, he received an invite to play here that autumn. It was his PGA Tour debut and he fought hard to make the cut, supported by friends and family who made the short journey to watch him. Kohles grew up in Cary, about an hour or so from here, after his family moved there when he was young.

We saw how much it meant to him to make the cut in the US Open played in North Carolina earlier this year and I can't imagine there's a better formula for Kohles than this one: a shortish course where accuracy counts, close to home, with money in the bank and his status for 2025 virtually assured, but with a very good week needed to make the Playoffs.

A four-time winner at KFT level who went very close to capturing the low-scoring Byron Nelson on the PGA Tour back in the spring, he's one I really like at the prices. Hopefully he can perform better than when we were on at the John Deere Classic recently.

Moore reason to side with Taylor

I opened this preview with the phrase 'fairways and greens' and few do that as well as Doug Ghim, whose performance at the 2023 Wyndham was rather typical: seventh off the tee, fourth in approach play, 27th around the green, third tee-to-green... 51st overall. He returns with his long-game firing but the putter misbehaving; you'll need a chunk of luck for the latter to change.

South Carolina's Carson Young is a top-10 fairway-finder whose putter has been in and out. He could go well if it fires and if you're one who likes to play markets like top-20 finish, then Mark Hubbard should prove as reliable as ever. Hubbard contended here four years ago and it's the right kind of test for a player who does nothing brilliantly but most things well, and hasn't missed a cut in the US all year. This is the final cut event of the season so there's a nice target for him.

My final two for the shortlist, though, were TAYLOR MOORE and ALEX SMALLEY.

The latter is a Sedgefield member who I do like a lot in general. His game has improved lately, something he mentioned in a recent Instagram post, and he does have tournament form having been 13th two years ago. We were on last year and he struck it beautifully only to putt hopelessly and miss the cut.

The putter is a worry in an event like this but players like Stenson, Kim, Garcia and Glover are on the roll-of-honour and Smalley had gained strokes four starts running before the 3M Open. He also played well in South Carolina earlier this season, where his putter was decent, and the bermuda greens down in Jackson saw him rank 19th at the beginning of last autumn's first FedEx Fall.

He is currently outside the top 125 in FedEx Cup points so while the Playoffs are out of reach, anything he does this week will make the post-Playoffs run easier. He'll know this is a big chance which comes at a good time during a disappointing season. Around a course he knows so well having lived in North Carolina for a long time, I can't leave him out.

Moore meanwhile has four top-10s from six starts on Ross-designed courses at this level, the only two exceptions coming in the US Open (MC), and when 22nd here last year. He'd been fifth on his Sedgefield debut and went on to close out his second visit with a seven-under 63, confirming that it's a great course for him, so of the two has to get the vote.

With a trio of top-10s at Detroit including one just last month, and his sole win having come at a Florida course which has been described as 'Carolinas-like', Moore's suitability is there for all to see and makes him very hard to get away from, even if he's been relying on the putter lately.

Still, we'll probably need a good week from that club to land on the winner and 12th place on his 3M Open debut, where he produced his best golf at the weekend, was a nice way to prepare for this. He's a player with more wins ahead of him and while like Novak there's a slight worry where his accuracy is concerned, that looks the only negative.

Posted at 1600 BST on 05/08/24

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