Ben Coley's golf betting tips: World Wide Technology Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: World Wide Technology Championship

2pts e.w. Harris English at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Austin Eckroat at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Patton Kizzire at 70/1 (Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Carson Young at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Justin Suh at 80/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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"An interesting stat at trivia nights," is how Adam Long described his PGA Tour-record 69 consecutive fairways hit, a feat he achieved last year. I'm not sure where these trivia nights take place, but sign me up immediately.

Long's place in the record books, that entirely fictitious pile, was secured in Bermuda, but the work was done here in Mexico at the World Wide Technology Championship. That week, Long took aim at 56 fairways. He hit every single one of them.

That's the first thing to note about host course El Cardonal, designed by Tiger Woods: at an average of 60 yards wide, the fairways here are hard to miss. Long's 56-from-56 might be the stat for those trivia nights, but there are others, such as the fact that every single player who made the cut hit upwards of 75%. Ludvig Aberg managed 85% and finished outside the top 60 in driving accuracy.

With a golf course stretching close to 7,500 yards, featuring a couple of short par-fours and the stock four par-fives, it might be reasonable to argue that driving distance becomes the key attribute. But the advantage bombers hold often reveals itself when fairways are narrow, not wide, and there were many short drivers inside the top 10 here last year.

Winner Erik van Rooyen needed all bar one of his 27 strokes under par to fend off two veterans in Matt Kuchar and Camilo Villegas, so it's no wonder so many hot putters also featured. Shootouts are sometimes wrongly written off as mere putting contests when in fact the challenge is as much to hit better approach shots than others, but if this course plays at it did in 2023, then a cold putter surely cannot be overcome.

I think the methodology here might begin with largely forgetting about driver, focusing on quality approach play, and avoiding persistently substandard putters. Various players, when asked, described this as a second-shot course, referring not only to the fact that most approaches are played from the fairway, but that contoured greens presented opportunities to access pins along with the odd hurdle to clear.

Van Rooyen said it best when speaking with the media after round three, stating proudly: "I'm a great iron player. Like I said, the fairways are wide so everyone's going to be hitting all of them. It's a second-shot golf course. I've putted well this week as well, so everything's coming together nicely."

Favourite Max Greyserman fits the bill but he's wobbled a little under the gun more than once recently and I'd rather take on board concerns over HARRIS ENGLISH's approach play at about twice the price.

Historically a strength, that aspect of his game hasn't fired of late but a dynamite short-game has been enough to finish sixth and ninth over his last two starts, making English one of the form players in the field.

Given that he's undoubtedly one of the classiest, as a major contender and Ryder Cup player with four PGA Tour wins to his name, English looks as likely a winner as anyone if he can just find that small uptick with his irons, which did at least show signs of life in Utah recently and will surely come good soon enough.

At 53rd in the FedExCup Fall standings he's the highest-ranking player in the field who isn't yet exempt for the big Signature Events early in 2025 and as someone who has a fine record in California he'll be desperate to be there, just as he will to climb from his current perch of 67th in the world rankings and secure major starts.

English is a former winner in Mexico, he's been fifth on paspalum greens at the Corales Puntacana, and historically he's been deadly when driving the ball well isn't a key demand. Playing from the fairway more often than he usually does, I'm hopeful he can dial in those approaches and if that's the case he may well prove the man to beat.

Not exactly a stone-cold certainty, but...

Sam Stevens is playing beautifully at the moment and looks a contender-in-waiting. By my count, 60 of his last 63 rounds have been par or better and it's no wonder he's gone particularly well in weak fields in Texas and the Dominican Republic, latterly under similar conditions to these.

Also a former winner in Colombia, the negatives are that he's a course debutant whose irons are a weakness rather than a strength. For those reasons he's overlooked along with Taylor Moore, though I did look twice at the latter despite similar worries about his approach play. It's two weeks since his college teammate Nico Echavarria won and just last year, Moore picked up his first PGA Tour title two weeks after Echavarria's.

Preference though is for AUSTIN ECKROAT, probably my favourite bet of the week.

Eckroat was 23rd here last year when in no form whatsoever – it was in fact his first top-60 finish since June. That immediately suggests there was something he found suitable and why wouldn't he, as a brilliant iron player who is capable of hot putting weeks.

Second at the Byron Nelson at Craig Ranch, whose super-wide fairways guarantee a shootout, is a good correlating form line and so is fifth place in the Puntacana on similar greens, while if you rewind far enough he was 12th in Mexico at El Camaleon before becoming a PGA Tour member.

Eckroat won the Cognizant Classic in February and though unable to quite kick on, that was largely down to a putting funk which he appeared to be emerging from towards the end of the season, his final three results reading 6-18-46, the latter under unfamiliar conditions at altitude in Colorado.

It should also be noted that he's played a strong schedule, his final dozen starts of last season including three majors, a Scottish Open, two FedEx Cup Playoff events, and three Signature Events. Seldom has he dropped to this kind of level and that's true ever since he won for the first time in the Cognizant.

Returning at the Shriners for his first start since August, Eckroat did everything well bar putting and that club will determine how close he can go here, but given his past performances on paspalum, and how he'd putted at times late in the season, improvement could well be forthcoming.

Certainly, if we look for a blend of reliable irons and the potential for a spike putting week then he very much stands out, and anyone who recalls the way he went about winning at PGA National will surely expect him to go on to become a multiple champion in time.

I'm not sure what to make of some decent correlations between that course and this one – they are on the face of it polar opposites – but the fact that van Rooyen chased him home in an event previously won by Villegas can't be a bad thing regardless.

Like English, at 59th in the world Eckroat has major starts in 2025 to play for and a second win to cap a breakout season could well be on the cards if that putter does warm up.

DANIEL BERGER is a past runner-up at PGA National but by no means is that a big part of the case for backing him.

Rather, he's another whose strengths when firing are his irons and his putter and the latter has finally come around lately, having been the one thing holding him up on the comeback trail.

Typically, his irons have dipped a little but it may not be long until everything clicks again, as it did when he contended for the Sanderson Farms Championship. There, Berger talked about finally feeling healthy so we should expect him to continue to progress, having already clawed his way back towards DataGolf's top 100.

He'll need to press on as he's 129th in FedEx Cup points but this could be where he secures his card for 2025, as he has a strong record across three other courses in Mexico, he's been second in Puerto Rico on greens similar to these, and he's been third and 13th in two visits to the wide-open, low-scoring Craig Ranch.

Berger is very close, I suspect, and as with the first two selections he has a class edge on so many of the market leaders, plus the right skill set.

Jacob Bridgeman boasts a dynamite short-game and did well to make it four top-30s in six starts when 29th at the Shriners. There was close to a four-shot draw bias across the first two days in Las Vegas and having found himself on the wrong side of it, the performance of this improving rookie can be upgraded.

But the same is true of PATTON KIZZIRE and I can't help but feel that's been missed in the market.

Kizzire won the Procore Championship at a big price but there had been signs all year that something good could be around the corner, given that this proven winner had been hitting his irons to such a high standard and has long been capable of lighting up the greens.

That blend of skills helped him to a contending 15th place in this event last year, his first top-20 since March, and as a former winner in Mexico who also has form across a range of similar courses, often when scoring is low, this makes sense as the sort of place that would speak to him.

Wide fairways are a definite plus for a player with a similar make-up to English and having backed up his win with two solid performances before a narrow missed cut in Vegas, where the weather worked against him, he could well get right back on the bike.

Kizzire's first two PGA Tour wins came in a short space of time, one either side of Christmas, and he's talked before about how much he enjoys coming to Mexico and playing on paspalum greens.

Statistically a top-five iron player in this field on 2024 form, it was a return to his best on the greens which proved the key in California, and a repeat wouldn't be a surprise for a player who has crept back inside the top 100 in the world and can keep moving in the right direction.

Take two from last year's top 10

Pierceson Coody is another high-class putter who was undone by the draw in the Shriners but, like Stevens, approach play is a bit of a worry. He's won in Panama though, almost won on the PGA Tour in summer, and undoubtedly has a high ceiling. With shootouts best for him at the moment, I can absolutely see the case for a player still ranked 130th in FedEx Cup points and in need of one more good performance.

Nick Hardy is a classy underachiever sitting in 140th place but he's exempt through next year anyway so has less to play for, but less pressure on his shoulders too. He's one of the most consistent iron players in the field, his season-long ranking of 51st failing to reflect the progress he's made since April, and was 23rd last year following a mediocre spell.

Unlike Coody, however, I'd struggle to argue he wants a lights-out scoring week whereas both CARSON YOUNG and JUSTIN SUH probably do and are therefore considered better bets.

Both were inside the top 10 here last year and starting with Young, he's also been eighth in the Mexico Open and 14th in the Nelson, both featuring wide fairways. Recently 11th in Utah and 37th in the ZOZO either side of a missed cut in Las Vegas, his form is decent enough.

Young is a past winner in Panama and as a short, accurate driver who ranks 11th in proximity and well above-average in strokes-gained approach, one of his better putting weeks would make him a potential contender once more.

He has gone close in Puerto Rico, his best effort this season was fifth at the low-scoring John Deere Classic, and with less pressure on his chipping this week he looks a live one at 66/1 and upwards from just inside the top 125 in points.

So does Suh, who ranks 160th after a really poor second season.

Still, things have improved a fair bit lately, the former college star having made seven of his last nine cuts versus just four from 16 from January to June, and at some stage during this run every aspect of his game has fired.

Fourth in strokes-gained approach last time only to putt poorly, Suh ranks seventh for the season in putting and was 10th last season so, Taylor Montgomery and perhaps Greyserman aside, you can make a case that nobody is more likely to lead the statistics this week however volatile they may be.

With proven course form, a good record at the Corales Puntacana and even a top-five at PGA National all in his favour, this big talent with a job to do is worth chancing. I'm hopeful that improvement with his irons reflects some time spent back at his base in Nevada and if there is more to come in that department, perhaps this will be his breakthrough week.

Finally, at monster prices Kelly Kraft brings with him a blend of approach play and putting plus a strong record on paspalum so would've been the pick of the outsiders, while Tyson Alexander, though largely poor, has putting potential and hit his irons well last time out.

Both these two may enjoy the absence of pressure from the tee and it's far from the worst tournament in which to take a chance, a fact underlined by last year's eclectic leaderboard. Strap yourselves in for a shootout.

Posted at 1300 GMT on 05/11/24

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