Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Wells Fargo Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Wells Fargo Championship

3pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 22/1 (Betfred, BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. Cameron Young at 35/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Will Zalatoris at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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So precise has Scottie Scheffler become that he can even schedule the birth of his first child for the week of the Signature Event he doesn’t much fancy. Scheffler hasn't played Quail Hollow outside of the Presidents Cup having used his free pass in this event a year ago. Twelve months down the line, he and his wife Meredith are due any day now and you can be sure little Augusta Scottsdale Bay-Hill Scheffler will arrive in time for next week's PGA.

Whether or not you think the absence of the world number one blows the Wells Fargo Championship wide open will depend a lot on how seriously you took the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, or more specifically the performance of Rory McIlroy. The eye test says he was instrumental in winning alongside his friend and habitual misser of short putts, Shane Lowry. What's beyond doubt is that he had a lot of fun during that week, the 25th PGA Tour victory of a Hall-of-Fame career.

Funtime Rory is dangerous anywhere, but especially so at the course where he was welcomed to the big-time in 2010, where he won by seven in 2015, and where he scrambled home to win again in 2021. This is a long, championship test which demands plenty of drivers and rewards length: McIlroy has 10 top-25s in 12 visits despite averaging less than one-in-two fairways hit. It provides that definition he likes and is demanding without being outright difficult; a scoreable set of par-fives plus a short par-four ensure he doesn't just have to grind.

Beyond Scheffler, the other story of 2024 has been general stagnation of some of the best players in the world and with that in mind, McIlroy could well complete preparations for Valhalla with win number 26. In that scenario, which is an 8/1 chance, all three of McIlroy, Scheffler and Brooks Koepka would arrive at the year's second major having won their latest start, appetites whetted on both sides of golf's divide.

Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and Wyndham Clark make up the chief resistance according to the market but PATRICK CANTLAY has as good a chance as any of them bar perhaps Aberg, and is therefore put forward as the headline bet in narrow preference to the Swede.

Cantlay has been selected on these pages three times this year and on each occasion has been favourite at some stage, failing to kick on at Pebble Beach, succumbing to illness at Riviera, and then finishing in third at Harbour Town where Scheffler was once again in a league of his own.

Top-fives in the latter two events represent some of the best form on offer but what's most encouraging is the recent transformation of his long-game. Cantlay's iron play had been poor for months until Augusta, where he ranked 10th in strokes-gained approach. The following week, at his beloved Harbour Town, he stepped up again to rank fifth.

It's this department in particular which has limited his results at Quail Hollow, where he finished mid-pack in the PGA Championship on his first go, missed the cut on his second, then showed up early on last year with Joe LaCava having just taken over as his full-time caddie. The pair ended that week in 21st, a decent first step along the road to Rome, where LaCava made headlines which detracted from Cantlay's defiant brilliance during day two of the Ryder Cup.

Between those two most recent appearances at Quail Hollow he also secured three points from a possible four at the Presidents Cup and I do feel it's a course which should play to his strengths, sharing as it does plenty in common with Muirfield Village. Cantlay has won at a far easier Tom Fazio design, Caves Valley, but he's generally best on these mid-tier courses which test all facets of a player's game.

Cantlay is one of the few best-of-the-rest players who has stepped up a gear as major season has arrived and at the same price as Harbour Town, without Scheffler to worry about and having played so well there, he's a straightforward selection even allowing for his almost flawless record at that course. At this one, the way he's driven it suggests the best is still to come.

The rest of this second wave I find much of a muchness. Collin Morikawa missed the cut last year but his irons were red-hot and he's putting better ahead of his return, so he was interesting enough. Hideki Matsuyama might have been but for persistent injury concerns, Tommy Fleetwood just looks a fraction too short, and the same goes for the improving Sahith Theegala, albeit he's climbing the ladder all the time.

My preference, with cooler conditions set to make Quail Hollow longer still, is to hope that CAMERON YOUNG can at last get over the line.

When he does, I suspect it'll be on a tough course in good company and Quail Hollow ought to prove a suitable candidate, even if he was a modest 59th on his debut. Hitting the ball atypically poorly that week, Young went on to struggle for quite a while, until mid-July in fact, so perhaps it was just a case of bad timing.

On paper, the emphasis on long hitting and deemphasis on accuracy should play to his strengths. Not only did McIlroy win this hitting a third of fairways, but Clark (63rd in driving accuracy), Max Homa (45th) and Jason Day (49th) all support that idea and while Young's accuracy stats are good this season, we're definitely better off backing him at courses which allow for missed fairways.

Major-like tests plainly work for one who has five top-10 finishes in his last eight of those and while Quail Hollow was a little easier last year, this week's forecast suggests it will be a decent test. That's partly why I didn't dwell too long on McIlroy for all the obvious positives, and it's certainly part of the case for last year's Open runner-up.

Young was desperately disappointing over the closing holes of the Valspar Championship just prior to the Masters but that North Carolina-style course down in Florida is another good pointer along with Augusta, where he was ninth, and we can put a line through the Heritage as that undermines everything he's about.

Back in the sort of form he showed before it, Young would be a massive threat here and having gone to college nearby at Wake Forest, Quail Hollow would be a fitting venue for his breakthrough win. At 33/1 across the board in this limited field, he's a strong each-way fancy.

Fowler worth a flier at favourite course

Adam Scott drove the ball as well as he has in ages at the Byron Nelson and is a smashing bet to be the top Australian, but it's four years since he won anything and I have enough doubts to leave him out.

Similar comments apply to Corey Conners, who says he adores this course, saw his Presidents Cup partner win last week, and seems sure to go well but perhaps without winning. He has no top-fives since capturing his second Texas Open title a year ago and averages about one every 20 starts, which is modest.

There's no denying that RICKIE FOWLER rates a riskier proposition but he absolutely adores it here and his game might have turned a corner in time to contend once more.

Eight top-25s in 11 starts at the scene of his first PGA Tour win is a record comparable to that of McIlroy, minus the subsequent victories, but Fowler has placed on a further four occasions and wasn't far off doing so last year when sharing 14th.

Since then he's completed his return to the top table with victory in Detroit, soon after he'd played alongside Clark in the final group at the US Open, but following the Ryder Cup in September it has to be said that things have threatened to spiral out of control once more.

However, good approach play despite a missed cut in Texas was the first step back in the right direction, the second was more promise in that regard when 30th at Augusta, and he was then 18th at the Heritage, once more hitting quality irons.

Fowler has a pretty miserable record at Harbour Town and with his putter still to join the party, there's big scope for further improvement now he returns to Quail Hollow, where he's generally putted well and has been particularly excellent off the tee.

It's the latter department which represents the one nagging doubt but the comfort of being back here could be the difference and at 66/1 generally, he's a lively each-way option at probably his number one course on the PGA Tour.

The best recent version of Gary Woodland would give you a run for your money at massive odds while Tom Kim and Taylor Moore both earned a second glance, but I keep coming back to KEEGAN BRADLEY and he's the biggest-priced selection.

Desperate no doubt to make the Presidents Cup side after his well-documented Ryder Cup heartache, Bradley might be ready to strike having produced a couple of eye-catching displays recently at courses where he's seldom been competitive down the years.

Finishing 22nd in the Masters looks humdrum on paper but he's never done better than that and after an opening 78, a missed cut was on the cards. Then at Harbour Town he shot a first-round 76 at a course he doesn't like, but broke 70 in each of the following three rounds to restore pride and show he really isn't far away.

More remarkable was his climb from dead last in strokes-gained approach through 18 holes to a lofty seventh through 72, following on from sixth in the same category at Augusta, so Bradley's irons are beginning to sing and that's what powered his Travelers victory, in similar company, less than a year ago.

At the time, two wins for the season seemed sure to earn him a Ryder Cup return, and he'll know he needs at least one now to get the nod for the Presidents Cup, which is being played in Canada later this year. This is a good chance to make a statement as while his course record appears unspectacular, he's been 18th and 35th over the last two years, and four of his last five visits have yielded strong tee-to-green numbers.

Finally, I won't be alone in finding WILL ZALATORIS impossible to resist at the odds.

Yes, he withdrew from the Byron Nelson prior to the start but managing his back is going to be something he has to do throughout the rest of his career and it's not a big surprise he sacrificed a low-key tournament, even if it is close to his Dallas home.

Now almost twice the price he was for the Masters, where he played well again to finish ninth, there's really no other reason for Zalatoris to have been eased this far down the market having only played at Harbour Town and in the pairs event in New Orleans since then.

That's not to say his profile is flawless and he was far from convincing off the tee there, but as mentioned earlier this is a course where you can get away with missing fairways, the kind Zalatoris has proven well suited to in the past.

He has only played it once, in 2021, when the putter was responsible for a missed cut, so again there's just not much there to justify such a big price in a field absent of Scheffler, who would've taken up about 20% of the book.

Zalatoris has produced four strong performances this year, each at a tough, championship layout and in elite company. I don't think anyone could claim surprise if he produced another and, like Young, he went to college in North Carolina for good measure.

Take anything 33/1 or bigger safe in the knowledge that Zalatoris in the form he showed at Augusta, Riviera, Bay Hill or Torrey Pines would be as likely a champion as just about anyone bar the top five in the betting, who for now aren't overshadowed by Scheffler.

Posted at 1700 BST on 06/05/24

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