Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Utah Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Utah Championship

2pts e.w. Jeremy Paul at 25/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. William Mouw at 33/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Peter Kuest at 70/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Pontus Nyholm at 100/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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Patrick Fishburn's withdrawal from the Utah Championship is a shame for those heading to what is his local tournament, as the in-form PGA Tour player would've been a likely contender at a course he likes. For us it's probably a good thing, his shadow no longer covering the field, and it looks a good time to revisit the Korn Ferry Tour while a small field is in Paris for the Olympics.

This long-established Korn Ferry Tour event is held at Oakridge Country Club, a shortish par 71 made properly short by the fact we're 3,000ft above sea level. That adds a dimension and explains why scoring is low. In fact, this 20th event of the Korn Ferry Tour season looks a good-thing to produce the sixth 20-under-or-better winning score in succession. Anything less than that may not even be enough to hit the frame.

Altitude has arguably been the key factor down the years, too – this is no nebulous concept, but a condition which has directly affected the outcome of the tournament. Josh Creel is a course specialist, with a win and a runner-up finish, and he was born at 6,000ft above sea level. Kyle Jones and Roger Sloan were both born at altitude about equal to this course's. Kris Ventura, who is flying the flag for Norway at the Olympic Games, spent the first 12 years of his life at high altitude in Mexico, where he was born.

Sloan, champion here last year, has also been second in Boise, third in Mexico and sixth in the Barracuda, three high-altitude events. Jones has a limited collection of top-10s which includes one in Boise and Creel's best PGA Tour performance to date came in the Barracuda. Nicolas Lindheim, the 2016 champion, went on to win in Colorado and had already won in Colombia, and recent Colorado champion Cristobal Del Solar had been fifth after an opening 57 in Bogota earlier this season.

At all levels, there are players who thrive under these conditions and those who struggle. Just as we should treat with caution anyone who has consistently failed to deliver here, in Boise and in Colorado, those three events plus a handful more could offer the best form guides. Anyone whose golfing education involved the kind of calculations which will be vital, exacerbated by the forecast hot weather, has to be considered.

In Fishburn's absence, Preston Summerhays is the one locals will latch on to and this top-10 amateur, the younger brother of Daniel and son of coach Boyd, is clearly promising. As yet though he's not shown it at tour level and while his PGA Tour form over the last 12 months is a bit better than it looks (both MCs were narrow), his price is based on reputation rather than results.

Instead, my favourite bet is PETER KUEST, who lives in Utah having gone to college the other side of Salt Lake City, at Brigham Young University. That's about an hour from this week's venue and he's sure to enjoy plenty of support, too.

Kuest was fifth in this in 2022, leading the field in greens hit, and that was his first tour-level top-five finish. Since then we've become familiar with him through a handful of PGA Tour starts, many of them promising: fourth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic won by Rickie Fowler, 10th behind Akshay Bhatia in Texas, ninth in the Corales Puntacana, the latter two this year.

Based on those performances he's been underwhelming on the Korn Ferry Tour, with just that one top-10 from a similar number of starts, but two top-20s in June offer some promise and since then he's been the halfway leader in Colorado.

Speaking there, he said 'I like playing at elevation', referencing his base in Utah, and also discussed how difficult it has been to go from narrowly missing out on PGA Tour membership to grinding on the Korn Ferry Tour, where it just hasn't quite clicked as of yet.

"It's definitely tough when you feel like you've played well enough and do some different things to where you should have some status somewhere and then you come out here and you basically have no status. It's definitely tough in that regard. But each week's a new opportunity and just going to try to make the most of it."

Kuest has missed both cuts since a poor weekend in The Ascendant but both at courses where he'd struggled before, and I'm hopeful he can show that PGA Tour-standard form now back at home. He's certainly achieved plenty over the last two years, more than enough to suggest he has the ability to win at this level and beyond.

All the form players are towards the top of the market and among them, JEREMY PAUL has the altitude box ticked having gone to college in Colorado.

As if to emphasise the point, he was fifth back there three starts ago and with finishes of 14th and 12th over the last two editions of this event, one of them coming when he was out of sorts, he looks the man to beat to my eye.

It's encouraging that his approach play appeared to improve when 20th last week as that's been key to his success at Oakridge, ranking third and fourth in greens hit. He's also become a Korn Ferry Tour winner since he last played here and holds every chance.

Sam Bennett came unstuck when faced with similar conditions in Colorado which is a bit of a red flag and so did Steven Fisk, although his top-10 finish here last year suggests he can handle it just fine. Fisk's body of work this year makes him a worthy favourite but Paul, at a bigger price, gets the vote. He's a bet at 20s and bigger.

The other I like at under 50/1 is WILLIAM MOUW, who closed with rounds of 65-65-64 for 11th place last week, having been 98th after an opening 70.

That was a nice comeback after one bad round in Colorado, where he'd played fine a year earlier, and in terms of form at altitude he won the Trans-Mississippi in Denver on his way to the top 10 of the World Amateur Golf Rankings.

Mouw looks one of the most promising young players on the circuit and whenever he's found something and played well this year, he's backed it up the following week. That was the case in South America (13-5), it happened again in spring (14-19), and after finishing runner-up in Wichita he was eighth in Oklahoma.

All these instances came across a two-week period and having responded to a missed cut with that 11th place in the NV5 Invitational, where he'd missed the cut last year, I'm hopeful he can kick on in Utah.

Further optimism as to his suitability to Oakridge can be found in the fact he's now living at decent altitude in Phoenix, and that these poa annua greens will be familiar to a player who grew up in California and went to college at Pepperdine.

Roberto Diaz is a good yardstick in events like these and has form in Boise, Colorado, and here in Utah. In fact he's been in the mix for this in each of the last two years, finishing third 12 months ago, so with some solid form lately he's likely to give you a decent run for your money.

So might Danny Walker, whose last 16 rounds have been sub-70. He shot middle rounds of 63-63 in this event last year to lie second through 54 holes and in general looks a better player now, hence his more lofty position in the market.

Then there's Trevor Cone, who has four top-25s in five starts at the course, twice leading the field in ball-striking. He's pretty adept at altitude in general having been fifth in Colorado recently and while quiet in two starts since, better can be expected back at a course he loves.

Those three are all interesting to varying degrees but I prefer PONTUS NYHOLM, who has the look of a potential event specialist.

The Swede was the halfway leader in 2022 and his form at the time read MC-60-MC-MC-MC-MC-44-MC-MC. Then, last year, he opened 66-65 and was a shot outside the top 10 entering Sunday, before a difficult final round. He'd missed five cuts in six and finished 51st in the other.

Form-wise he does have a few questions to answer once more but five of his last nine starts have been top-25 finishes and he'd managed only five of those from this event in 2022 to the spring of 2024.

I like the fact that he ranked fourth in greens last week with career-best figures and it looks like the putter kept him down the field. That's been good in both previous starts in Utah and having been just outside the top 20 in both previous starts here, he's never been better coming in than he is now.

Try your Luck for first-round lead?

Returning to the local angle, Connor Howe could be one to watch. He was a top-50 amateur before turning pro last summer and while he's largely struggled, his three recent missed cuts have all been by the most slender of margins.

Now set for his debut in this event, I'd fancy him to at least make the weekend and there are worse ways to speculate than with a capable youngster for whom this is a home game, a comment which also applies to current BYU student, Cooper Jones.

Aged just 20, he contended on his Korn Ferry Tour debut last month and topped the Monday qualifier for this. It's probably asking too much for him to win and be faced with the option of leaving college to turn pro, but he was runner-up in the Utah State Amateur earlier this month and appears to be playing very well, as is fellow qualifier Carson Lundell, who started strongly in this in 2022.

On balance though the proven class of Curtis Luck made more appeal, but perhaps more in the first-round leader market if and when prices emerge.

Luck is without a top-30 finish this year but played his best golf last week, lying fourth at halfway. That was his third start after a break due to injury and the birth of his niece, which meant a return to Australia, and it wouldn't surprise me if he were to build on it now.

His record here is steadily improving and he was 12th last summer, but hidden beneath the surface are rounds of 62, 63 and 65. Those numbers plus the fact he's started well often enough even in this quiet campaign make him look a potential candidate for the lead on Thursday.

Posted at 1715 BST on 30/07/24

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