Ben Coley's golf betting tips: TOUR Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: TOUR Championship

4pts Rory McIlroy to shoot the lowest 72-hole score at 14/1 (Sky Bet)

3pts Viktor Hovland to shoot the lowest 72-hole score at 20/1 (General)

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Friends, the TOUR Championship is rubbish. No 72-hole golf tournament should start with a player even-money to win it, not unless someone manages to regenerate peak Tiger Woods and send him off to the European Tour for a year. No system should claim to be a 'season-long race for the FedEx Cup' and then end in a hodgepodge play-off where suddenly Keegan Bradley could win the jackpot. This is all very silly.

There is one small positive for the week ahead, and that's an extensive restoration of East Lake which seems to have gone down well. Does anyone turn on for that reason alone? Obviously not. There's also the ongoing battle to catch the eye of Jim Furyk (at least I think it's Jim Furyk?) and Mike Weir, the Presidents Cup captains. On the US side in particular, that's somewhat interesting, but not interesting enough.

A proper end-of-season tournament would not require subplots, would it? No, it wouldn't. Make it stop soon, PGA Tour. Nobody wants this.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (-10)

Almost twice as many FedEx Cup points as the man in third yet they count for little and he'll start with the arbitrary two-shot lead. Chance is obvious but there are two concerns: poor putting on every East Lake start, and the fact it's been a long, hard season, which might just have started to show over the past fortnight. Hopefully he wins the FedEx Cup because he deserves to be remembered as the standout PGA Tour player of 2024.

XANDER SCHAUFFELE (-8)

The standout majors player of 2024 who, in possible contrast to the man ahead of him, absolutely loves it here. So far he's won the TOUR Championship before it was ruined (in his rookie season, too) and has led the 72-hole scoring in 2020 and 2023. Seven starts show nothing worse than seventh and he's been the leading iron player in two of them. Many will take him to pick Scheffler's pocket.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (-7)

Winner of the first event of the Playoffs to make it a good year having also stormed to victory at Riviera back in February. Best golf remains comparable with anyone in the sport and produced more of it in round one last week, but back must've been seriously sore to withdraw after that start. Other negative is that he's generally struggled off the tee here, so we'll see if the changes to the course help at all.

KEEGAN BRADLEY (-6)

The last man into the BMW Championship field (ranked 50th in the FedEx Cup) went on to win it, showing plenty of mettle and raising hopes of a hilarious player-captain role at the Ryder Cup. Before that could be player-assistant at the Presidents Cup and the only thing funnier than these scenarios unfolding would be for him to win the FedEx Cup. That would of course show you how Playoffs work, but it would also highlight why they don't really work in golf.

LUDVIG AVERG (-5)

Harsh in some ways to pick any holes in what's been a very good year as he only turned professional last summer, has had a couple of chances to win majors, and a couple more to win very strong PGA Tour events. One was taken away from him at Pebble Beach but in Scotland and in Colorado he made some costly mistakes and we'll see how he recovers from them here. Won in Georgia last November and remains magnificent. Perhaps he'll show that from this cosy position, five behind the leader.

RORY MCILROY (-4)

Season that began with a bang and should've seen him end his major drought has petered out now and he was awful at Southwind after missing out on a medal in Paris. Better last week though (despite several viral-for-the-wrong-reason moments) and having won the FedEx Cup from a seemingly impossible position two years ago, might yet do it again. Loves East Lake, or did before the changes, and reckon he's probably kept something in reserve for this.

COLLIN MORIKAWA (-4)

Like Aberg, up there in the 'best 2024 without winning' stakes and a couple of his best chances have also come in majors. Top 30 every single start since the Masters but 28th in a field of 50 last week was a step backwards and his irons have gone off the boil. Could bounce back at East Lake where, like Scheffler, he's yet to putt well but has shown the layout suits, or at least suited.

WYNDHAM CLARK (-4)

Third-best scorer here on debut last year and has enjoyed a solid 2024 in my book, when it wouldn't have been a shock to see him regress significantly. Instead he's remained at about the same level, winning once and producing a stack of top-10s, while last week he was on course for another until the final few holes. Imperious off-the-tee in Denver but average in other departments.

SAM BURNS (-4)

More than most will continue to benefit from the fact that two of the Playoff events have permanent homes, and contended for the first of them before posting a commanding clubhouse target on Sunday, eventually taking second. Playing his best golf of the year at what some would call the right time and stepped up on previous East Lake efforts when fourth in 72-hole scoring 12 months ago.

PATRICK CANTLAY (-4)

Still qualified for the Presidents Cup team despite a frustrating campaign where getting all departments of his game in sync has been difficult. Not much wrong with first two Playoff efforts though and lighter schedule might mean he's got a bit more left than some. Ranked 2-1-4 in the tee-to-green stats here the last three years, but 14-27-22 with the putter, so that club will probably hold the key.

SUNGJAE IM (-3)

Bad first half of the season but good second for the most part and could've gone close last week had the putter fired. Almost stole the FedEx Cup two years ago but other four efforts around here have been modest and he's just become a bit difficult to trust.

SAHITH THEEGALA (-3)

Like Aberg, broke through towards the end of 2023 and many would've expected a follow-up win this year. Has been close at times with six top-10s, the pick at Harbour Town, but has done nothing over the first two weeks of the Playoffs to suggest he'll leap from 28th last year to anything like a field-leading score this year.

SHANE LOWRY (-3)

Defied a slow start to finish 13th around a course he liked last week, having already wrapped up a first crack at the TOUR Championship. Two major top-10s this year including when letting a golden chance slip in the Open, since which he's been understandably quiet. Not sure what to expect but unreliable putting and course debut enough to suggest he won't be factor.

ADAM SCOTT (-3)

Only beaten a shot in the end last week but the mistakes he made every time he hit the front or had a chance to take command probably say a lot. Obviously playing well since taking second in the Scottish Open and is a former TOUR Championship winner.

TONY FINAU (-3)

Promising start in Colorado but putting woes soon returned and confined him to a still-decent 13th, making it eight top-20s in nine for one of the Tour's form players. Probably done enough for a Presidents Cup pick now and could produce a personal best here if putting as well as he has done at East Lake in the past.

BYEONG HUN AN (-2)

Five top-10s and plenty of other good golf for a player whose sole top-level win remains at Wentworth almost a decade ago. Baffling really but breakthrough ought to come somewhere if he can keep enjoying better putting weeks, as he has several times lately. Debut here.

VIKTOR HOVLAND (-2)

The undoubted disappointment of the season having been as good as anyone towards the end of last year. Tinkering got him in a mess and while back working on things which are more familiar, when you hear him talk about the technical side of the game it's hard not to be a little concerned. Nearly won at Southwind though before eye-catching performance in Colorado, where for the second week running his irons fired, and long-game stats around here are imperious. Says he's found something he can work with and hard to resist.

RUSSELL HENLEY (-2)

Probably deserves a Presidents Cup pick on the strength of his form but lack of wins could cost him. This his final chance to impress and at least has his conditions, having gone 12-3-13 here over the past decade.

AKSHAY BHATIA (-2)

Another Presidents Cup hopeful whose form since the Open has dipped, but whose two wins over the previous 12 months might earn him a crack at it. For now has enough form on older, classical courses (nearly won in Detroit) to suggest he could catch the eye of Furyk.

ROBERT MACINTYRE (-2)

Dream season may have more to offer yet with the Race to Dubai doubtless on his agenda. Probably can't win a FedEx Cup from this far back but is at least aggressive and playing with house money, because if he shoots four rounds of 80, what does it matter. WD last week though and you don't do that midway through round three of a mega-money event unless you need to.

BILLY HORSCHEL (-1)

FedEx Cup winner a decade ago after capturing the TOUR Championship and was second four years later. Has his conditions and quite impressed with a run of 7-10-22 since second in the Open, which all gives him renewed hope of making the Presidents Cup side again.

TOMMY FLEETWOOD (-1)

Possibly not a great deal to play for with a proper PGA Tour win requiring a bit of a miracle effort from his opening score. Form figures of 2-22-5 since Open missed cut show how good his game has been lately and from tee-to-green there are few who arrive in better shape. So-so here to date but could make a big move if the putts drop.

SEPP STRAKA (-1)

Strong iron player with strong Georgia ties who has been sixth in 72-hole scoring on both previous East Lake starts. Remains a bit underrated and if he can back up last week's improved putting display then he's probably the most dangerous outsider in the 'without starting strokes' market.

MATHIEU PAVON (-1)

Torrey Pines champion who later contended for a major and must now have eyes on next year's Ryder Cup. Some run considering he was a bit of a middling maiden this time last year, but recent efforts suggest he's a front-runner in the 'to finish last' market.

TAYLOR PENDRITH (-1)

Surely now done enough for Presidents Cup selection after another strong performance saw him sneak into this field for the first time. Putting improvements a big part of it and you'd like to think he'll be a different beast on his second go at that competition, especially as it's in Canada. Wouldn't be high on my list in any market here though. Wait, Corey Conners didn't make it?

CHRIS KIRK (E)

Won The Sentry (the Tournament of Champions) to begin the season but only two top-10s since, the latest of them just last week to sneak into the field. Another with strong Georgia connections and was fourth on sole previous East Lake start, albeit 10 years ago.

TOM HOGE (E)

Fifth here two years ago and the sort of strong iron player who might benefit from the format and freewheel to something decent. Putter has been cold for months though so while he's led the field in strokes-gained approach an impressive four times this season, he's not often been able to capitalise.

AARON RAI (E)

Birdied the last to win the Wyndham after Max Greyserman's collapse. That had been coming and he might even have followed up at Southwind had he holed anything, which he again failed to do last week. Suspect his PGA Tour season is done but one to look for at Wentworth and elsewhere in Europe.

CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT (E)

Sneaks into the field after another good season which included collecting the winner's cheque in the AmEx, because actual winner Nick Dunlap was an amateur at the time. Away from links golf he's done little wrong over the past few months. Could be one of those to lose out to a Canadian when it comes to the Presidents Cup but we will see.

JUSTIN THOMAS (E)

How much Sunday's rally to scrape through altered his Presidents Cup prospects who can say, but it at least means he has another chance to impress. Loves it here, too, never finishing worse than ninth, and will be relieved to be returning having missed last year's edition (and the Playoffs altogether). Given that he was selected for the Ryder Cup regardless, probably will be in Canada in a few weeks having been a bit better by some measures in 2024.

VERDICT

The FedEx Cup market makes no appeal as the two standout players of the season sit first and second. It's possible to argue that Scottie Scheffler is weary now and therefore worth taking on, but a couple of fairly quiet weeks might actually have helped and he'll be desperate to earn a deserved first FedEx Cup. I've a strong suspicion he'll do it but backing him at short odds doesn't interest me in the slightest.

Instead, the low 72/without starting strokes market is where I'll head with RORY MCILROY a fairly strong fancy at 12 and 14/1. He's imperious around here and I don't see why that being any different despite the changes to East Lake. Note that the most recent comparison is probably Colonial, and while Davis Riley was a shock winner, it was at a course where he'd gone very close before.

McIlroy was awful at Southwind but much better last week and at about twice the price he was when producing a field-leading display to snatch the FedEx Cup two years ago, I can't resist him. This is a great spot from which to make a run and he'll fancy getting close to Scheffler, too.

The other one I like is VIKTOR HOVLAND, whose approach play was very good again last week. He's a bit hard to trust but could so easily have won at Southwind and he's been a tee-to-green monster in four East Lake starts. Should that continue, he will put up an honourable defence of his FedEx Cup title despite having been the disappointment of the season.

Dutching these two class acts, who are completely without pressure given they've won this thing already and are a long way back, makes stacks of appeal at about 8/1 combined. This isn't the strongest renewal by any stretch and I'm content with those two in preference to Thomas, Henley and Straka, who completed the shortlist.

Posted at 1100 BST on 27/08/24

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