Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship

3pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

3pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 40/1 (Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Jason Day at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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The PLAYERS Championship has long been known as the deepest field in golf, for some the so-called fifth major, and while for now these labels can no longer apply, there remains a sense that this one of the most special weeks the game is still capable of putting together.

Just a few weeks ago there were murmurings of LIV Golf exiles being invited to take part in what would've become a real blockbuster, but another impasse in negotiations and a clash with that tour's event in Singapore means we're left only with the best that the PGA Tour has to offer. Still, that's quite something, with Scottie Scheffler pursuing a hat-trick, Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg both winners this year and Xander Schauffele back from injury at Bay Hill last week.

Russell Henley took a big step up in his career by downing Collin Morikawa there but Henley, wins aside surely one of the best dozen players in the world, was by no means a surprise champion. So far they've not come along often on the new PGA Tour, where there is an undoubted class divide and where, quite simply, the supposed lesser players aren't often invited along to see if they can compete in the way Michael Kim has.

Now, The PLAYERS is different. This is a full-field event where 144 PGA Tour members get a game until the cut at least and, history tells us, a few of them might well get involved after that. In part this is because Sawgrass is a fickle beast, a course which gets everybody in the end, one of few which even held firm in the arm-wrestle with Tiger Woods, whose two wins is bettered only by three for Jack Nicklaus.

Extraordinarily, Scheffler can match Nicklaus if he makes it a hat-trick this week. Should he do so, that would mean more than 400 attempts to finish ahead of him on this leaderboard have failed, last year's courtesy of his Sunday charge in the face of injury, before which he'd been utterly dominant prior to his first Masters defence at Augusta National.

He's been eased from 3/1 to 5/1 following his best tee-to-green display since Paris 2024 and that alone made me think twice. But this is the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The strength in depth among the game's elite means that they continue to produce the champion, but we've had a 500/1 winner in the last decade and it was so nearly two. There have been numerous big-priced contenders and while we need to try and crack the top of the market, short prices around a volatile course such as this just don't do it for me.

First on the list is HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, who has done everything but win this title.

It was Matsuyama who broke the course record with a nine-under 63 before the 2020 renewal was abandoned, so it's likely that his returns of seven top-25s in nine, four of them top-10s, would be better still. Given the nature of this golf course, it's an outstanding record which at some stage surely merits getting his hands on the trophy.

The reasons Matsuyama enjoys this course are similar to the reasons Justin Thomas does. Both are quality iron players with beautiful hands, and the fact that they aren't as impressive off the tee as their world-class contemporaries matters less here than it can elsewhere.

Putting can hold both men back but Matsuyama has become more streaky in recent years and when that club has fired, he's been deadly: first in putting for first at Southwind, third when winning The Sentry, third when winning at Riviera; three titles in little more than a year, all in fields comparable with this one.

Matsuyama was also third in the Olympic Games behind Scheffler and Le Golf National is a very similar challenge to this one: stadium in nature and a blend of simple and complicated. Simple, in that the course very much tells you where you have to hit it and where you most certainly shouldn't, but complicated in that the execution side of things is high-pressure and extremely difficult.

He arrives here after a so-so 22nd at Bay Hill but by comparison, Matsuyama has one top-10 finish in 11 starts there. He finished well, too, ranking fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green on Sunday and, for the third time in four, demonstrating his brilliance around the greens during the course of the week.

Truth be told it hasn't really mattered how he's played there, missing the cut before storming to fifth place here two years ago, but signing off with his game in excellent shape is a nice little bonus as Matsuyama comes back to one of the most suitable courses on the schedule. I find it hard to quibble with odds of 28/1 because on a going week, there's nobody in this field he can't live with. Not even Scheffler.

Eight quality tee-to-green displays in nine PLAYERS starts gives us a high degree of confidence that this part of his game will hold up, and with three of his last four wins in the US having come thanks in part to brilliant putting numbers on bermuda greens, let's hope we see the best of his streaky side.

Playing alongside Matsuyama for the first two rounds, both Thomas and Aberg made some appeal. Thomas clearly has been banging on the door but was disappointing last weekend and hasn't moved enough in the market, whereas Aberg is a slightly bigger price after a strong finish. He was seven-over for a run of six holes in round three but otherwise offered plenty of encouragement and so does a top-10 on debut.

Preference though is to stick with TOMMY FLEETWOOD, whose weekend score was bettered by only one player in the field at Bay Hill.

Given that he faced the worst of the draw on Thursday, it was yet another excellent display from one of the most reliable golfers in the world, one whose approach play has reached a higher level of quality and consistency dating back to his silver medal at the Olympic Games.

In fact since then, only once has Fleetwood lost strokes from tee-to-green and as we know he's historically been dynamite around them and reliable off the tee, it's no wonder that his one good putting performance so far this season resulted in fifth place at Torrey Pines, a course he doesn't know particularly well.

Sawgrass should be an even better fit and, like Matsuyama in a more understated way, he's shown it. Six cuts made in seven demonstrate a high level of comfort and the one time he failed to make the weekend was all about the putter, which remains the one club I'd have to have some nagging concerns around.

He has slightly better-than-average figures over his 26 measured rounds here, however, and with six strong tee-to-green displays I'm convinced Sawgrass is ideal. It should be for a player who thrives at Le Golf National, winning an Open de France, starring in a Ryder Cup, and then denied gold only by Scheffler last August.

Of course, the one issue remains that he hasn't won on the PGA Tour and he's unique among the top 25 in the betting in that regard, but I have no doubts at all he's capable. This is a player who effectively hit the winning shot at the last Ryder Cup, who has posted a clubhouse score in a US Open that maybe anyone bar Brooks Koepka would've struggled to meet, and has been on the wrong side of some bad beats at times.

He won't be for everyone regardless but beyond Scheffler, I'm not sure there's a player more likely to perform to the best of their abilities or close. Following wins for Henley and Thomas Detry, it might just be time for Fleetwood to get it done.

Day primed for second Sawgrass win

There's a straightforward case for also sticking with Shane Lowry at the same kind of price but his struggles of the tee saw him fold quite tamely on Saturday and he did a lot of experimenting with drivers on the range. Unless he's found the right one, it might be difficult to take that step forward he'll need for all that he too is extremely fond of Sawgrass.

It does make sense though to pay close attention to Bay Hill. Scheffler did the double last year, Wyndham Clark was runner-up in both, and Brian Harman, who almost won for us at 66/1, had shown promise in 12th. Corey Conners and Lee Westwood contended across the fortnight back in 2021 and as Matt Fitzpatrick says, 'when you're playing well, you play well; when you're not, (Sawgrass) is a bit more penal than most.'

That's no doubt why the market has cottoned on to Sepp Straka and Aaron Rai, both of whom shortened dramatically on Monday. Rai, who lives right next to the course and practices here, is as short as 40/1 from twice that price and Straka has been cut in similar fashion.

I can't quite work out why JASON DAY hasn't attracted the same kind of attention and am pretty thrilled to be able to take 50s.

Day recovered from an opening 76 to somehow contend for the Arnold Palmer, sitting fifth at halfway and fourth through 54 holes, and he was still in there with a chance until one bad swing at the 16th hole ended up costing him a couple of shots.

The bigger picture though is positive as that's twice this year he's had a chance to win, and on two more occasions he sat just outside the top 10 entering the final round. Slow starts have just been a bit of a problem but otherwise, there's lots to like about where Day is at the moment.

His iron play in particular continues to offer encouragement as while he'll never be elite, gaining strokes in five of six starts is just the kind of platform he needs. Then it comes down to that putter of his, which helped him to reach the top of the game a decade ago, and it really began to fire at Bay Hill.

Most interesting though is the context. Day revealed during his post-round interview last Friday that he's back working with Col Swatton, his longtime mentor and coach who played such a key role in his success. Their first job was to get the putter firing again and if they have cracked that piece of the puzzle, Day doesn't need much improvement elsewhere to win something big.

Sawgrass has looked a good fit ever since he was sixth on his second start and when he won it in dominant fashion five years later, it came after he'd also won at Bay Hill. Since then he's added two more top-10 finishes and the only time he missed the cut was in 2022 after a poor second round in difficult weather, and even then it was by a single shot.

Ninth at halfway a year later than sixth after an opening 67 on his last visit, Day has nothing to prove here and is in fact a bit of a Pete Dye specialist, the designer of the Stadium Course also responsible for Whistling Straits, where he won his major.

Second in the Open 18 months ago having got back to winning ways in Texas, Day has continued to look comfortable when chances have arrived and while that happens less often than it once did, at 50/1 he's a must-bet for me this week.

The player who has given me the biggest headache is PATRICK CANTLAY but I can't ignore him at the price.

Cantlay was 16/1 at Pebble Beach, eased to twice that a week later only to finish fifth, then returned to around the 20-22/1 mark at Bay Hill. Now, after a slightly underwhelming performance, he's out to a general 33/1 with plenty of 40s available.

This is a pretty volatile profile for a solid member of the game's elite and just as we were right to stick with him at Torrey Pines when he hit 33/1, I feel we have to do it again – particularly as I truly believe Sawgrass is an excellent fit, yet it's Sawgrass which explains the latest price drift.

Ultimately, Cantlay has a best of 19th from seven starts at the course, but as touched upon this is just that kind of venue. Clark had done nothing before finishing second, Schauffele has twice been second but has three missed cuts, and Cam Smith's form read MC-MC-56-17 before his victory three years ago.

And there has been promise in Cantlay's past appearances. He was inside the top 10 after rounds one, two and three on debut, then returned to shoot 66-68 and lie second at halfway. A run of missed cuts followed but in amongst them was an opening 67 in the abandoned renewal, then he was 19th in 2023, defying a slow start to enter Sunday on the fringes of the places.

More often than not his approach play has been the issue – he's twice been the best driver in the field – but right now that aspect of his game looks good, ranking ninth, ninth and 12th over his last three appearances, and capitalising when the putter fired at Torrey Pines.

He also boasts an excellent wider record on Dye courses, ranking second in strokes-gained total only to Scheffler. That's thanks to second place at Harbour Town, seven top-15s in his last seven starts at River Highlands, a pairs win at TPC Louisiana, and an excellent record at the Dye course used in the rotation for the AmEx out in California.

These days a Florida resident, he's done enough in the state with fourth at Bay Hill and second in the Valspar to believe he can win something like this and that course record is a red herring in my view. Anything upwards of 28s represents serious value, win or lose.

Rose to bloom in another big event

Returning to the idea that Bay Hill might lead us in the right direction, JUSTIN ROSE is worth a go at three-figure prices.

Rose is inconsistent these days but his four top-10 finishes over the past year include two majors and two Signature Events on the PGA Tour. Two of them have come in his last three starts, too, and his only poor rounds this year have been at Torrey Pines, including one on an utterly foul day back in January.

Last week he was never outside the top 15 at Bay Hill, a course where he's struggled badly in recent years, and his good run of putting continued there. Better yet, his approach play was as good as it's been since the Open and if he can tidy up a little off the tee then I don't see why he can't go really well again.

Rose is determined to make the Ryder Cup side and clearly remains capable of contending in the biggest and best events. Soft conditions probably suit more than firm ones would've, he boasts a strong Dye record including a win at TPC Louisiana, and he has three top-10s from his last nine starts at Sawgrass, seemingly improving for the move from May to March.

Last year I put him up for this when he was struggling, taking a chance on that turning around. He returns in better form, significantly higher up the world rankings, yet we can take the same price. It sounds like a good deal to me.

Finally, I wanted to give a mention to Laurie Canter, who I toyed with at 150/1 and completed the shortlist along with Nick Taylor and Tom Hoge, for whom soft fairways aren't as suitable.

Canter is in outstanding form and while this will be his debut in a PGA Tour event, he did pick up plenty of experience in the US when playing on the LIV Golf circuit and was mid-pack in the 2022 PGA Championship.

That run on LIV means he's just finished his one-year PGA Tour suspension despite never having been a PGA Tour member so it would be quite something were he to win the flagship event, and I don't know as we should rule it out. He's got form figures of 3-1-35-2 this year, is absolutely striping it, and continues to hint at putting improvements with David Howell's help.

Soft conditions have to be in his favour but ultimately this isn't often a battle of the drivers and without feeling that he has the perfect set-up with which to produce his absolute A-game, I can just about resist.

Posted at 1000 GMT on 11/03/25

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