Golf betting tips: Puerto Rico Open

2pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Pierceson Coody at 33/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Chad Ramey at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Danny Willett at 110/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Noah Goodwin at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Davis Riley at 150/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

| |

After nine weeks of PGA Tour golf the average starting price of winners of rank-and-file events continues to climb. Setting aside the three Signature Events won by superstars from Europe and Asia, we've had six champions defy odds ranging from 66/1 to something like 300s, with Joe Highsmith the latest to spring a surprise.

Here in Puerto Rico, the first opposite event of the season (that being it takes place at the same time as the Arnold Palmer Invitational), there are something like 40 players we should all feel confident in ruling out altogether, but that still leaves close to a hundred we can't. It is, as these tournaments tend to be, wide open and hard to decipher.

But while the Puerto Rico Open will pass by unnoticed for golf fans who simply enjoy watching the game on television, for those betting on it this might be more enticing a proposition than the question of whether Scottie Scheffler can win at Bay Hill for the third time in four. Here, everyone is dealing with uncertainty and that means your impression of the right price could differ wildly from a handful of golf odds compilers and an illiquid Betfair market.

That market has Niklas Norgaard vying for favouritism with Ryan Gerard and of the two I'd strongly favour the American. Norgaard is a serious ball-striker with effortless power at his disposal, but I still worry a little about his short-game and how big winning on the PGA Tour might be for his career, whereas Gerard's rate of progress has a nice look to it and he may be ready to do so himself.

Among my selections last week and now dropping in grade with 11th place at this course behind him, Gerard is among the most appealing among the first half-dozen in the market without looking overpriced in the way I feel MATT WALLACE clearly is.

Granted, it's been a bit of a slow start to the year for the Ryder Cup hopeful whose prospects of making it to Bethpage were boosted by a strong end to the last one. A winner for us in Switzerland, he went on to finish third and 11th in the two Middle East events to end the DP World Tour season and had his long-game in excellent shape.

Since then, he's been rather beset by putting problems and they hit rock bottom last Thursday when he ranked 144th of 144 players in the Cognizant Classic. However, he was much better in round two, gaining a stroke on the greens, ranking seventh off the tee, and producing a five-under 66 which only six players in the entire field bettered.

Wallace is not habitually a bad putter so I'd say we might just have been waiting for something to click, which is what happened during the British Masters won by Norgaard. There, he shot 76 in round one, putting abysmally, but scraped through to the weekend and climbed all the way to eighth, then won the following week.

The difference this time is that he was one shot the wrong side of the cut-line but I'm hopeful that Wallace, a player who you sense relies a lot on confidence and that inherent belief that he's a better player than most if not all of these, can pick up where he left off in this markedly weaker field.

There are plenty of other positives, too. First, he won the Corales Puntacana in 2023, a tournament and a golf course so similar that they're easily mistaken for each other. Secondly, that came after a strong tee-to-green performance at the Valspar a week earlier, where he'd putted poorly – further evidence that he can turn things around with that club.

Paspalum is a grass familiar to many DP World Tour regulars who play on it a lot in the Middle East and while Wallace did miss the cut here at Grand Reserve on his sole previous visit, he's since rediscovered the winning habit and simply looks a different player, one certainly hitting it well enough to compete.

Another small positive is that he's been 12th in a US Open at Pebble Beach, a course which used to provide a really strong form guide for this event before its field was limited to the best players on the PGA Tour, and having watched Sepp Straka and Thomas Detry both win already this year, he'll be well aware that he needs to play his way into those if he's to keep the Ryder Cup dream alive.

Wallace's first few rounds this year aren't easy to overlook but Friday's play was quite compelling and provides the green light to make him the headline bet.

Coody the pick of the powerhouses

Soft fairways and greens and little to worry about from the breeze could make this chunky par 72 that bit more vulnerable to bigger hitters, with Ryan Brehm and Tony Finau two notably powerful past champions.

Chris Gotterup joined Wallace in missing the cut by one in Florida and it's interesting that he was a well-supported 20/1 shot a year ago, priced up alongside Aaron Rai, Daniel Berger and Robert MacIntyre in what was a far stronger edition at the top-end of the market.

Now 50/1, this powerhouse could feasibly bag his second opposite win following last year's impressive success in Myrtle Beach, but he still looks a bit short based on seventh place here in 2022 and I prefer PIERCESON COODY.

This former amateur star almost won the ISCO Championship last year but went on to lose his card and couldn't get it back at Qualifying School, which is why he's largely played on the Korn Ferry Tour so far this season.

Finishes of 7-9-2 at that level contrast with two missed cuts on the big tour and perhaps demonstrate the class divide, but the first was under brutal conditions at Torrey Pines and then he missed out by a single shot at PGA National last week.

Two rounds of 69 there offer ample encouragement and so does the fact that when he arrived here with form figures of MC-MC-MC-WD-MC 12 months ago, he still managed to finish a solid 32nd before his rookie season really got going.

As well as that play-off defeat in the ISCO, another opposite event, he's been 12th at the short and less suitable Port Royal in Bermuda, while one of two Korn Ferry Tour wins came in Panama to offer some potentially correlating form. Josh Teater, Sam Saunders, Carson Young and a handful of others suggest there are worse clues on offer.

Coody also has some recent experience on paspalum to call upon as two of those KFT top-10s came in the Bahamas, so this big-hitting, big talent, also 18th in the Corales Puntcana, has lots in his favour.

Another useful form guide could be El Cardonal, hope of the World Wide Technology Championship won by Austin Eckroat late last year. Young was placed behind him and despite there having been just two renewals of that event down in Mexico, names like Joe Highsmith, Andrew Putnam, Chesson Hadley, Wes Bryan, Nate Lashley, Sam Stevens, Nico Echavarria and Max Greyserman make for a pretty compelling correlation.

The trouble is I can't find anyone with whom to test that theory. Camilo Villegas is an option and does have a top-10 finish at a higher level already this year, while the former Presidents Cup player Kevin Chappell has been 15th and 23rd in his last two starts in Puerto Rico but was last seen withdrawing after a round of 78 in the aforementioned Panama.

Back to the drawing board then and the obvious parallels between this event and the Corales Puntacana point to CHAD RAMEY, champion there in 2022.

Also a play-off loser in Mexico, he's often played well outside of the USA and like Coody, last week's brace of 69s to miss the cut by one aren't a worry whatsoever. He finished off with a back-nine 31 and should feel optimistic retruning to Puerto Rico, where he'd been fifth before winning in the Dominican.

Ramey was inside the top 10 through 54 holes in Bermuda late last year so is always one for the radar in these tournaments, and having been mid-pack in Mexico a fortnight ago he doesn't look to be too far away.

Yes, his driving is about accuracy rather than power but the only real issue lately has been the putter, which has been below-average in five of his last seven starts. That said he's well capable of much better and has four top-five putting displays over the past 12 months, so with his approach play firing that's a chance I don't mind taking.

Ramey's top-five here came courtesy of a rock-solid tee-to-green display in one of the softer renewals, the one won by Brehm, and it came at a time when his overall form had been worse than it is today. At 50/1 and bigger he rates a solid option.

Danny Walker caught the eye with a top-20 finish in Mexico following a strong start to the Farmers but namesake DANNY WILLETT is even more tempting at three-figure prices.

Clearly, there's risk attached here but Willett says he's injury-free to begin the year, which he certainly wasn't in 2024 when he somehow made his comeback in the Masters after more than six months away and was competitive early on.

Another break followed and it's taken time to find even a semblance of form, but a strong finish to the Nedbank (21st) offered some hope before the putter cost him on his return in the AmEx, and then followed ninth place in the Farmers.

That event did have a freakish quality given the conditions and I wouldn't take it at face value, but Willett did somewhat back it up with a narrow missed cut last week, driving the ball well as he has in every start since making the switch to Cobra during the off-season.

Friday's second-round 67 featured just one bogey and while his approach play does need to improve, PGA National can exaggerate things somewhat. Prior to it, Willett's irons had been solid and they were for most of his second round.

He's a debutant here but was eighth on debut at the Corales Puntacana when right in the mix, then 36th a year later owing to one bad round, so I'm hopeful Puerto Rico will suit. What I'm certain of is that Willett, a former Masters champion who has won several massive DP World Tour events, is capable of better than most of these.

It's only a couple of seasons since he should've won a stronger tournament in California which instead went to Max Homa and following that recent top 10 he has to be worth a chance in this, a weak renewal event by the standards of the event.

Good value

Back up the market, Q-School champion Lanto Griffin has been quite solid since becoming a father late last year and was tempting. He made 18 cuts in 23 starts in 2024 and while his best finish overall was 10th, he's already climbed higher with ninth alongside Willett in the Farmers where he was right in the mix.

His form in events like this is a nagging worry though so I'll split stakes on NOAH GOODWIN and DAVIS RILEY instead.

Goodwin was a top-10 amateur, one of just five players in history to win consecutive AJGA Rolex Junior Player of the Year award having captured the US Junior Amateur, beating Matt Wolff in the final a year after he'd lost at the same stage to Min Woo Lee.

Clearly, his pro career hasn't quite taken off despite a couple of wins in Canada but he's caught the eye a couple of times lately, sitting 25th and 17th through 54 holes in his last two starts only for poor final rounds to undermine plenty of good work.

His driving has improved throughout all four PGA Tour starts and for two of the four rounds in Mexico he gained strokes through the bag, so perhaps we're about to see that amateur promise delivered upon.

The clincher is that while he's had to learn on the job elsewhere, he played the Puerto Rico Open on an invite in 2023, shooting rounds of 70-67 to lie 11th at halfway. Remarkable though it may seem, perhaps owing to that amateur promise and two wins at a lower level he was sent off a much shorter price than he is now.

Returning as a full PGA Tour member, a speculative bet on his promise, not just from amateur golf but from the last couple of tournaments, makes enough sense at 100/1 and bigger.

Riley also played here once before prior to earning his PGA Tour card and did OK to be 39th. He returns with his game seemingly in disarray since beating the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Keegan Bradley at Colonial last May and that explains why he's a long way down the betting.

However, talent-wise few come close to him and there was just enough in last week's effort, which began with a round of 64 and ended with a 67 which only five players bettered, to believe he's worth chancing at a price which isn't far off where he was in the market against the world number one and co.

Two years ago he was close to winning at Bay Hill, a performance which came after a step up in the Honda, so how about a repeat in these calmer waters as he wonders what exactly he's doing here?

Posted at 1300 GMT on 04/03/25

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at and .