Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Puerto Rico Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Puerto Rico Open

2pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 40/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Harry Hall at 55/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Harrison Endycott at 90/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Win some, lose some might be the way to sum up the Puerto Rico Open, which benefits from the size of the Arnold Palmer Invitational field but has been kicked from TV coverage over the past couple of years and therefore will only appeal to the purist regardless of the fact this is a bit better than it sometimes has been in the past.

All in all it's a fun tournament that kickstarted Viktor Hovland's career and made Tony Finau a winner about five years before he was accepted as a winner, and how it plays out is to a large extent determined by the weather. In the relatively calm conditions forecast for this week's renewal, a wide, resort-style course should make for low scoring.

In general, longer hitters have held sway with the weather set fair. Ryan Brehm would be the most stark example along with fellow former champion Martin Trainer, but Akshay Bhatia and Jhonattan Vegas could easily have won either side of Brehm and at over 7,500 yards in length, Grand Reserve demands plenty of drivers.

Still, we can't rule out the shorter hitters and I have to stick with DANIEL BERGER, who ought to be favourite.

Certainly, nobody else in this field would've been 33-40/1 for the Cognizant Classic last week and while that in part reflects Berger's affinity with the event, he has played in this one once, and finished second despite a slow start.

Perhaps tellingly, that came in 2019, when he was on the comeback trail following a thumb injury and had gone 12-MC-MC to begin the year. This time it's 39-MC-28-MC and while last week was disappointing, he said he was 100% healthy again and was at his best from tee-to-green throughout a first round which ought to have been lower.

Had it been he'd have likely made the cut and perhaps gone on to confirm that he's close but whatever the case, at a revised 25/1 taking out Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Russell Henley, Min Woo Lee, Matt Fitzpatrick and various other players who would all slot in as a short-priced favourite for this, he has to be backed.

Berger had a complete horror show on the greens at PGA National and if that happens again, so be it. But we know he's historically been a good putter, something he demonstrated here in 2019, and his trademark approach play is certainly close to the sort of level that earned him a Ryder Cup place a couple of years ago.

The former world number 12 is here for a reason and the frustration of missing the cut on home soil after such a positive start might also help get him in some way. Whatever the case, this is a top-class player in an opposite field and, just as Branden Grace did a couple of years ago, Berger can stamp his class all over it.

Rasmus Hojgaard is playing wonderfully but there's nothing to fear at the top of this market. Chris Gotterup for instance, seventh on his PGA Tour debut two years ago, hasn't really threatened to win even at Korn Ferry Tour level so far yet is in at the same price as Berger. They were 40/1 and 200/1 last week.

Of course their prices ought to have come closer together given that Gotterup was an eye-catcher and does have plenty of talent plus power that Berger lacks, but given Berger's one appearance here was also excellent, I find the revised assessment pretty astonishing.

He was 12/1 favourite back then in a strong field for the grade (Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, Cam Davis, Graeme McDowell and Charl Schwartzel all played), and I'd make him favourite again now.

Another bob or two on Bob

Brandon Wu, Michael Kim and Chan Kim are all obvious candidates even if the first two have to leave behind a disappointing week's work, but I'd rather scroll further down to ROBERT MACINTYRE, who is far too good to be going off at 40/1 or so in a field like this.

Pebble Beach used to be a fantastic guide to Puerto Rico but now that's a small field, the best one might be the Mexico Open a fortnight ago. Wu for instance has an excellent record in both, Bhatia was second and fourth in them last year, and the rare good golf Martin Trainer has produced has generally come at one or the other.

MacIntyre was placed for us in that event, where he relished the opportunity to thrash his driver and be aggressive – something he'll also enjoy here. There's just enough breeze to keep them honest, too, and if you're reading a preview of the Puerto Rico Open, you don't need me to tell you that suits MacIntyre just fine.

I didn't really think PGA National would be ideal and MacIntyre finished down the field there, but yet again his driving was good and he in fact gained strokes in every category bar putting. On that score, returning to greens similar to those found in Mexico, where he was better than average, could be ideal.

Certainly, Europeans have plenty of experience playing on paspalum greens, something we saw when Matt Wallace and Nicolai Hojgaard battled it out in the Dominican Republic last year, and a better putting week is all that MacIntyre needs to threaten just as he did in Mexico.

As I wrote then, the world number 68 has a low floor but a high ceiling, considerably higher than most of those who are around him in this market. Sticking with him is an easy decision and he's 40s with firms offering seven and eight places, or 45/1 in a place if you're happy settling for six.

CAMERON CHAMP, on the other hand, I found hard to weigh up, but he's included on value grounds.

It's two weeks since some people were falling over themselves to back Champ at 50/1 for the Mexico Open, where Finau was favourite and the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard, Emiliano Grillo, Stephan Jaeger, Erik van Rooyen and Keith Mitchell were all part of a decent if unspectacular field.

By way of comparison, MacIntyre is quite rightly less than half the price, and Ryo Hisatsune is into 20/1 from 50s despite going 48-MC since. Field strength is obviously integral to any market and it takes exceptional circumstances for any player to start these two events at the same odds.

Perhaps Champ's circumstances are exceptional, because he loves that course in Mexico, where he finished inside the top 30 after a strong start. But as I believe it's a very similar test to this one, it follows that Champ, the longest driver in the field, might find equal comfort on his first look at Grand Reserve.

I wouldn't want to take any chances as a bookmaker, that's for sure, about a three-time PGA Tour winner whose good is very good. If he takes to this place and putts reasonably, Champ could do enough damage on the par-fives alone to overcome the fact that his iron play is a definite weakness.

Last week's missed cut came on his debut at a course which isn't made for him. This one could be.

Sam Stevens contended here and in the Corales Puntacana last year and is of some interest along with the talented Justin Suh, who was 35th three years ago and went on to lead at halfway in the Dominican Republic, while Parker Coody is showing clear signs of promise.

It's this section of the market where I think the value lies but preference is for HARRY HALL, who is playing some decent golf at the moment.

Last week's missed cut doesn't change that fact as it came by a single shot at a course where he'd struggled badly in 2023, and elsewhere he's only really played poorly in the first round of the AmEx and the Farmers (at the brutal South Course) so far this year.

There were some good signs with his approach play in the Sony and again in Mexico two starts ago, and so far he just hasn't lit up the greens in the way we know he can. When Hall finished second in Texas last May it was all about the putter and it has definite potential to spike.

He has the correlating form in Mexico (10th and 33rd, closing with 65s each time) and even at Pebble Beach (34th on debut), while last year he showed real potential on his Puerto Rico debut by climbing to seventh despite being outside the cut line following the first round.

Later 13th in the Corales Puntacana and then 10th in Mexico, these conditions appear ideal for a player with a couple of Korn Ferry Tour wins to his name. He's volatile, like a couple of my selections, but that brings upside and I see plenty of it in prices of 50/1 and upwards.

Local favourite Rafael Campos is arguably in the best shape he's been in for this and should play well, while those looking for a class act to reignite their careers should consider Patton Kizzire and James Hahn.

Kizzire has been poor lately but there have been a few whispers that his game is firing at home, and he did play some excellent stuff at times late in 2023. A winner in Mexico and Hawaii, he's seldom dropped down to this kind of level and it won't surprise me if he's competitive here.

Hahn was sixth on his sole visit to the Dominican Republic and sixth when last he played an opposite event, so he was of some interest at 150s. The former Riviera champion closed with a round of 66 in Mexico last time and has made four cuts in five, form which merits respect at this level for all that he appeared to rely on a hot putter last time.

My final selection though is Q-School champion HARRISON ENDYCOTT, 100/1 with six places or slightly shorter with eight.

A player of definite promise, he was rewarded there for time spent on the mental side of the game and minimising his mistakes thanks to a deep data-dive. I put him up at a massive price for the AmEx afterwards and while only 39th in the end, a third-round 62 hinted at more to come.

Frustrated no doubt at having limited opportunities, he went out to the DP World Tour and contended in both starts, before returning with a missed cut in Mexico where his putter was singularly to blame.

Granted, Endycott was a bit disappointing when in the mix in Bahrain and again in Qatar, but it'll serve him well in the long-run. It also represents a decent way to prepare for Puerto Rico, given the big, exposed nature of those courses, plus paspalum grass which he putted really well on across the fortnight.

This is probably slightly stronger than a standard DP World Tour event at the moment but not by much, with the same favourite in fact, and Endycott should be competitive. He withdrew pre-tournament when selected for it at 45/1 last year and is an improved player now.

Posted at 1300 GMT on 05/03/24

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