Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Procore Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Procore Championship

3pts e.w. Max Homa at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. J.J. Spaun at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Beau Hossler at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Rico Hoey at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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If you missed it last week, I've already written extensively about the FedExCup Fall. As with most things PGA Tour, it is in many ways flawed, but in many ways compelling. For us, a run of eight events, none of which will be overwhelmed by the best players in golf, is undeniably mouthwatering: no more parsing the data to work out whether 9/2 about Scottie Scheffler is too short, too big, or just right.

The second edition of this revamped season-suffix begins, just as the first did, with the renamed Procore Championship, which has been at Silverado Resort for a decade now. What we've seen over the years is that strong driving and comfort on the west coast are two of the clearest paths to victory. Six of the last eight champions hail from California and all of them are or were good off the tee.

That said, Sahith Theegala didn't exactly lean on his driver when dominating here, his short-game instead doing much of the heavy lifting, and Silverado is quite hard to profile. I do still favour those who are as reliable as the likes of Brendan Steele and Cameron Champ off the tee, but we've had a play-off between two shorter hitters before, and as reintroductions to the PGA Tour go this is an appropriately level playing field.

Theegala shares favouritism with Wyndham Clark and both these two have strong claims. Clark's course record isn't as impressive but his best golf this year is the best in this field by a good margin. Theegala, who knows Silverado well having played here many times outside of competition, sprang into life at East Lake last time. That might just set him up for a strong defence of a title he won at ease in the end.

However, twice the price about MAX HOMA looks plain wrong to me and while there are reasons for it, the two-time course winner has to be backed to return to form.

By now you probably know that Homa is a Californian who has been deadly in his home state, but it's worth repeating. He's won at Torrey Pines, Riviera and here at Silverado, twice in fact, before finishing seventh when seeking a hat-trick last year. He was a 13/2 chance who suffered for having been part of a Ryder Cup scouting mission to Rome days before this tournament began.

Over the last five years, Homa has four wins in 21 starts in his home state, plus six more top-10s, and even when quiet at the start of this season he managed to finish 13th and 16th among three goes. The second of those was in a high-class field back at his beloved Riviera.

Now, the negatives are all about how he's played more recently, because despite having had a chance to win the Masters, since eighth place at Quail Hollow in May he's been wholly disappointing. In fact, Homa was considered by many to have been a little fortunate to be picked for the Presidents Cup, that no doubt a reflection of his exploits for Team USA rather than his results.

Still, he can be lucky on the one hand and have excuses on the other, and this run of summer events does look like a viable excuse. It began at the Travelers, where his form figures were MC-MC-MC-MC-MC before he finished 61st in a no-cut event. After that came a fortnight in Scotland, where he wasn't a factor but made both cuts in challenging conditions. Then on to Southwind, where seven times in eight appearances he's failed to crack the top 40. Finally, Denver and a funky course at altitude.

None of this is to say we shouldn't have concerns about his long-game, particularly off the tee, but any small problems could easily have been magnified by a run of courses he either doesn't much like, or has seldom if ever played. In general terms, I don't think links golf tells us that much about PGA Tour golf, and I don't believe the Playoffs are necessarily the best form guide, either.

Homa will be far more comfortable coming to Silverado and I like the fact he may feel he has a point to prove. Justin Thomas contended here last year after his slightly controversial Ryder Cup pick and it seems perfectly plausible to me that Homa does exactly the same.

The final point worth making is that while he was all over the place during the first 36 holes of the BMW Championship last time, the final 36 were much more like it. On Sunday he shot the third-best score in the field and hit it wonderfully. On both Saturday and Sunday, he was back driving the ball the way we know he can, and come the end of the week he ranked third in strokes-gained approach.

Might something have clicked? Who knows, but I'd have been happy to play at 20/1-plus even without those final two rounds of the Playoffs. With them, he's the standout bet of the week, and if you can take bet365's 35/1 with just three places without fear that you won't be welcome in future, then that option is the pick of the bunch. As it is we'll advise at the best generally available price.

Min Woo Lee could go well and was hard to leave out. He topped my list of players to follow during this part of the season and, at 60th in the FedExCup Fall standings, one good week sets him up for next year. The nagging doubt I have is that the Aussie, typically an excellent putter, has putted poorly five times in six starts in California and has struggled elsewhere lately, too. It's just enough to pass up 25/1.

Instead, I'll turn to another player on that list, JJ SPAUN.

Unlike Lee, he has course experience and while his is a patchy record, from three good putting weeks he's managed ninth and 11th. Never has he driven it poorly here, and never has he arrived with his game in such good shape as it is now.

Spaun signed off the regular season as one of if not the best iron players around (bar Scheffler), and it helped him to defy an awful record in the Wyndham Championship and take third place. Ninth before that in the 3M Open also came at a course where he'd never previously been a factor.

There's a slight concern that the time off will have halted his progress but that wasn't the case with most of the contenders last year and Spaun should be raring to go, knowing that he's playing well enough to fully capitalise on this part of the season. Historically, it's been a productive one for him, and there's a lot on offer for a Californian who would love to play Pebble Beach and Riviera.

As touched upon already, Californians have a strong record here and if Spaun continues to hit it as he has done recently, particularly off the tee where he's been improving week-to-week, then he ought to be a factor. That his win came at San Antonio, which throws up all kinds of correlations with Silverado, is another reason to believe he has everything in his favour.

Beau selector

Driving is the worry for backers of BEAU HOSSLER but if he can solve that problem then this is an excellent chance to shed his maiden tag at last.

Hossler is another Californian with course form and having been selected at 28/1 last year, he made it four top-30s in a row at Silverado despite again struggling off the tee, as he has in the last three renewals of this event.

We'll need that to change but on his last start, at the Wyndham Championship, Hossler defied a course record of MC-MC-65-MC to finish 12th and put it down to improvements he's made with the driver, as well as feeling more comfortable with his irons, too.

"There's five or six like particularly daunting tee shots for me, blind and kind of got to curve it a little bit," he said. "In the past they've given me a bit of trouble, today I drove it beautifully."

Hossler went on to explain that his ball-striking really felt like it had turned a corner and that seems to be the case, as he's gained strokes with his irons in three of his last five starts versus just four of 16 for the rest of the 2024 season. This is the area in which he's sometimes struggled but there are signs right now that he's in a far better place.

It was Hossler who was leading the way when Spaun went on to win at San Antonio so we have that form line to lean on, while 24th and 15th in strong fields at Riviera further highlight his compatibility with this course. I'd be very confident of a good run if I knew he'd drive it as well as he did at Sedgefield and he's a bet down to 40/1.

Forgive and forget with Hoey

It'll be interesting to see whether Mackenzie Hughes can go some way to justifying his surprise Presidents Cup inclusion, or whether compatriot Nick Taylor might be galvanised by having missed out, but neither appealed as a betting proposition and to be frank, my shortlist for this event was precisely that – short.

Michael Thorbjornsen went to college at Stanford and has potential upside at 80/1 given his potential, while amateur stud Wenyi Ding is a player I rate particularly highly and could be value in something like a top Asian market. Otherwise, only Justin Suh was difficult to omit after some signs of encouragement since he spent time with his coach here in his home state in July.

My final selection though is RICO HOEY.

Along with Chan Kim, Max Greyserman, Mac Meissner and Patrick Fishburn, Hoey was one of the handful of PGA Tour rookies for whom the penny dropped during summer and he arrives here having made six cuts in a row, five of them top-30 finishes.

Of course, he ought to have won for us in the ISCO Championship, taking five with wedge in hand at the short, par-four 18th when four would've been enough, but more chances will be forthcoming if he continues to putt to a decent standard given the quality of his ball-striking.

Perhaps one will arrive this weekend as Hoey grew up in California and went to college at the University of Southern California, where he won at Torrey Pines among other places. So far as a professional, he's managed finishes of fourth, eighth and 20th from just six starts back home, including the most recent of them in January.

The fact that he contended at TPC San Antonio in the spring is a nice little bonus and if anyone is going to produce the dominant off-the-tee display which both Steele and Champ did, it could well be him. At upwards of 50/1, he looks a nice each-way bet.

Posted at 1300 BST on 10/09/24

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