Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Myrtle Beach Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Myrtle Beach Classic

2pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Matti Schmid at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Jacob Bridgeman at 50/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Dylan Wu at 66/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adrien Dumont de Chassart at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Dunes Golf and Beach Club hosts the first ever Myrtle Beach Classic as the PGA Tour's great unsigned get a welcome chance to strike while the best players in the world are elsewhere.

This course, designed by Robert Trent Jones and renovated several times by his son, Rees, looks fairly typical of the area: tree-lined in places and accordingly narrow, but with some holes which run along the coast and are exposed to the sea breeze.

If that sounds like another South Carolina course, Harbour Town, then so it should and while longer and less suffocating, Dunes does look like it could be slightly more about precision than power. Landing spots are quite small and, particularly along 'Alligator Alley' at the start of the back nine, waywardness will be punished by the water that is in play virtually throughout.

Two of the par-fives are reachable, the other a sort of reverse model of the sixth at Bay Hill only a good bit longer, but we have to accept that there's some guesswork however we dress things. Some 1990s Champions Tour events and the 1962 US Women's Open really don't help matters except to suggest we shouldn't expect a shootout.

There have been some potentially more instructive amateur tournaments held here, however, and MATTI SCHMID picked up some valuable course experience in one of them.

The German was well down the field four years ago, nevertheless it's a rare treat for him to return to a course he's seen before. It could help quite a bit given that he first contended at this level at another course he knew so at 50/1 or thereabouts, he's really interesting.

Schmid has been one of the quiet improvers of the spring and his results in opposite events, 10th in Puerto Rico and 11th in the Dominican Republic, show us how dangerous he could be now dropping in grade again.

Last week's narrow missed cut is of little concern and while the driver is to some degree, I do love the strides he's taken with his approach play and putting. He ranked 165th and 157th respectively in those categories coming out of the Cognizant, but is up to 112th and 62nd and climbing all the time.

Schmid's approach play last week was his best yet and this powerhouse therefore looks like he's close to winning if he can avoid the big miss off the tee, one of which proved especially costly during the second round in Dallas.

Do that, and with his irons (particularly good from longer distances) firing he can contend just as he did for the Puerto Rico Open and in Bermuda late last year, with the outcome hopefully better this time.

Bridgeman home and ready to shine

Matthew NeSmith and Jimmy Stanger bring the best course form from these amateur events but neither arrives in great nick. That's a shame in NeSmith's case as he's good enough to win on the PGA Tour, almost did on a Carolina-like course in Florida, and indeed comes from South Carolina.

Perhaps he'll spring to life back home and three-figure prices are certainly fair, but among the locals I prefer to side with promising rookie JACOB BRIDGEMAN.

Bridgeman hails from the other side of South Carolina and, a bit like Schmid, has caught the eye with two finishes of T23 in the opposite events held so far this year.

At 60th in strokes-gained approach and 40th in putting, he does enough well to believe that he can establish himself at this level (as his amateur career suggested he should), although he'll need results soon enough from 129th in the FedEx Cup standings.

Last week saw him miss the cut on the number, again like Schmid, but his approaches were especially good in round two and this drop in grade on home soil could make a big difference to another strong mid-iron player.

He's played twice in South Carolina on the Korn Ferry Tour, carding six sub-70 rounds and finish fifth on the first occasion. He also has top-10s from limited starts either side, in North Carolina and in Georgia, and this very much looks to be his comfort zone.

Five top-30s in his last eight starts is very good form for the grade and having been in contention in Florida back in March, at the similar-looking PGA National no less, he can shrug off last week's disappointment.

At the head of the betting, Ben Griffin hails from North Carolina and merits respect, but he's not exactly a player to run scared of whereas DANIEL BERGER is a class act. He should be clear favourite.

Berger let us down in Puerto Rico but now arrives on the back of three cuts made in a row outside of the Zurich Classic pairs event, with his effort in the Byron Nelson especially encouraging.

The former Ryder Cup star and major contender made one bogey in the first round and none thereafter, finishing strongly for 13th place and gaining strokes in all departments, without really lighting up the greens.

As you'd expect he hit stacks of fairways and with some solid form around Harbour Town to his name, this anticipated test of accuracy should prove absolutely ideal for a rare modern player who sacrifices distance to find fairways.

Berger is a Floridian who has always been at his best in these parts and I like the fact that all four wins, including one by the coast, have come in mid-level scoring events. Something around 15-under might do for this and Berger has as good a chance as anyone based on last week's performance.

Take a wider view and he deserves to be considered by some way the man to beat, with further encouragement drawn from the fact that this place does appear to share plenty in common with PGA National, where he's done everything but win down the years.

My one worry would be the possibility that Dunes proves a bit long for him, but Berger was placed in a US Open at Torrey Pines and I really don't have this down as a slugfest. Playing from the fairway, he can take the next major step in getting his career back on track.

Davis Thompson has been in my staking plan twice in his last three starts and finishes of 18th and 23rd suggest he wasn't far away, but his short-game was poor last week and I would've had Craig Ranch down as potentially more suitable, so he's left out albeit with a degree of trepidation.

Having put up Patton Kizzire at three-figure odds in a weaker event not far from here recently, only to see him shoot 80 and withdraw, taking 66/1 or thereabouts is too much to stomach despite further signs of encouragement since then.

Preference is for DYLAN WU, who has a solid bank of PGA Tour form to his name and can produce a career-best.

Wu is a steady operator, the kind of player I generally prefer for this, and his irons are good at the moment having gained strokes in each of his last five measured starts.

With the putter having improved last week, enough for 30th at a course where his past results read MC-MC, he looks to be coming to the boil in time for an important couple of months.

He'll definitely prefer this sort of test to the wide-open Craig Ranch, where a powerhouse won in the end, and his nearby form includes 13th in his sole South Carolina start, plus 21st over in North Carolina in last year's classy Wells Fargo.

Wu has made his last six cuts, triggered by a top-20 finish at Sawgrass which itself might not be the worst guide to Dunes, and upwards of 50/1 rates value for a player who has also been 10th at PGA National.

Andrew Novak looks good on paper but that's largely because of a golden spell earlier in the year, while Philip Knowles is another local with heaps of course experience and could be of some interest at a massive price.

Knowles suffered a freak injury early on in his rookie season, severing a nerve in his hand when cutting it on a tin can, but is now back on a medical extension and contended last time out on the Korn Ferry Tour, which he called a pleasant surprise.

He's one to watch along with Carson Young and Kelly Kraft, both excellent iron players, but my final vote goes to ADRIEN DUMONT DE CHASSART.

It's only nine months or so since the Belgian came over to Europe with a Ryder Cup place to play for and went off around the 33/1 mark for the European Masters, where Matt Fitzpatrick was favourite and Ludvig Aberg went on to win.

That alone tells you his progress has stalled but he earned his way onto the PGA Tour by winning on his sole start in South Carolina, and I wouldn't be at all surprised were he to double up on his return.

Dumont de Chassart's form is patchy, but he was sixth in Puerto Rico and 23rd in the Dominican Republic, those two opposite events I've mentioned already, so when the company has got weaker, he's shown what he can do.

He was 30th last week in Texas, hanging around in the middle of the leaderboard all week, and in terms of headroom there are few who have the same kind of potential, with the Coody twins and Thompson just about it.

It's true that the first two opposites of 2024 have both gone to older players who had won at this level and beyond in the past, but on a course new to almost everybody, and with added experience behind them, we should see more rookies in the mix this time.

Bridgeman and Dumont de Chassart are my pick of them, but if Berger is thereabouts on Sunday, he can do what Billy Horschel did and remind us all just how good he is.

Posted at 1030 BST on 07/05/24

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