Ben Coley's golf betting tips: John Deere Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic

4pts win Sungjae Im at 16/1 (Betfred, Betfair Exchange - 14/1 general)

2.5pts e.w. Denny McCarthy at 22/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Seamus Power at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Patton Kizzire at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ben Kohles at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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It is possible to win an event like the John Deere Classic without putting well, and those with a penchant for the serendipitous might be willing to chance it happening again. After all, if Mark Hensby can do it in 2004, and Brian Harman can do it in 2014, why can't somebody do it in 2024?

TPC Deere Run, a permanent fixture on the PGA Tour this century, is the go-to example of a shootout for a reason. It is not in fact the easiest course on the schedule but it is one of the most reliably straightforward, seldom affected by severe weather or firm turf or anything like that. What you see here is very much what you get.

Of course, putting is inherently unpredictable and perhaps that's why we've had some surprise champions at times, never more so than across the 2018 and 2019 renewals. In the first of them, Michael Kim gained an eye-watering 13 strokes with the putter alone and waltzed to an eight-shot win. The following year, Dylan Frittelli did something similar through his short-game as a whole, his victory less of a surprise, but a surprise nonetheless.

Then again, this event has also been responsible for some of the most predictable things this sport can muster, such as Steve Stricker landing a hat-trick, local favourite (well, ish) Zach Johnson succeeding him, and Jordan Spieth winning twice in three years despite doing his best to shoot himself out of it on day one. For the second of those wins, Spieth was just a 3/1 chance.

It's very much Classic Spieth that he could fit both descriptions this week. On the one hand, he is now vying for favouritism following Patrick Cantlay's withdrawal, but on the other he'd be an out-of-sorts champion. It's three months since his last top-10, five since he had a chance to win... yet he struck the ball beautifully in a major just a few weeks ago. Like many, perhaps like the man himself, I've little idea what to expect.

The most likely winner is SUNGJAE IM, a better player than defending champion Sepp Straka, more reliable right now than Spieth, and with an obvious chance to outclass generally weak opposition for the grade.

The Korean has been at the top of his game of late bar at the US PGA and US Open, both in their own ways unique. Elsewhere, Im's non-major form since April reads 12-1*-4-9-8-3, the asterisk denoting a win back on home soil at a level far beneath this one.

Still, those other performances, four of them in Signature Events won by either Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, represent top-class form. Throughout, he's driven the ball in his customarily excellent fashion and as well as pounding greens again, his strokes-gained approach numbers took a big step forward last time. Only at the majors has his putting been poor.

Im has long been one of the best 'balanced' drivers on the PGA Tour, that being someone who is both accurate and long enough to gain strokes almost every times he tees up. Currently, than run stands at 11 events and chances are it'll be 12, which would give him the platform to have a really good go at this providing the rest of his game carries over from TPC River Highlands.

Two wins so far include one in a shootout, both of them on courses which are more about position than power, and while his form at Deere Run isn't outstanding, context is key. Im played here as a rookie in 2019 and finished 26th then returned in 2021 for 47th, his focus perhaps already shifting towards the Tokyo Olympics given the size of the prize for Korean golfers.

With national service now safely avoided thanks to gold at the Asian Games, it was a matter of time before Im recaptured his best form in the US and he very much has now. This is the first time he's played a tournament not featuring either Scheffler or McIlroy since March and he can capitalise with what would be an overdue third PGA Tour title.

Speaking of being overdue, DENNY MCCARTHY remains a maiden and he won't have many better chances than this on the face of it.

Sixth in each of the last two renewals, Deere Run is a course where he's hit all 18 greens in a round and birdied seven holes in eight, the type of lights-out venue where the single best putter on the PGA Tour can get on that kind of run in a heartbeat.

His ball-striking has been better here than it can be, having gained strokes in each of the last two renewals, and he's another who has been competing at a higher level for most of this year. In fact he's played two non-majors/Signature Events in the last 20 weeks, finishing second to Akshay Bhatia in Texas, and 24th at Colonial.

The latter might not sound like much but it was his best effort at that course in six tries and he wasn't far off the places throughout the week, and since then he's gone 39-32-31 across Memorial, the US Open, and the Travelers Championship last time out.

He'll probably need to drive the ball a little better than he did there but that's perfectly possible and, at 51st in driving accuracy, he's got the right sort of profile. On that point, the last five winners of this ranked inside the top 25 in fairways for the week, which represents the longest such run on the PGA Tour. I can find no other course with an active streak of more than three.

So, fairways and putting is the simplest version of the formula and it's one McCarthy is extremely well-equipped to handle. Some will scoff at the price but this is a weak field and several of the second wave in the betting are ropey putters. Anything beginning with a two makes him a bet.

The above duo represent confident selections relative to the nature of this challenge, but my favourite bet of all is BEN KOHLES.

Kohles struggled at times early on this year after a fabulous 2023, but form figures of 2-58-26-MC-56-20 over the last couple of months represent a pleasing turnaround with an important few weeks to come.

His effort to make the cut at Pinehurst, where he shot 77-68, is the sort of thing that can spark something – not least because for Kohles, who moved to North Carolina at the age of 10, that was a home game, with friends and family having been out in force to support him.

Last week's 20th came at a course which played long and soft, with seven of the top nine genuine powerhouses, so pound-for-pound it was an excellent performance, especially as he'd missed the cut by three on his previous start in Detroit.

So, I think his game is in good shape, and I'm certain this course is a good fit. For starters, at 17th in driving accuracy he's among the straightest hitters in the field, and while he looks like a bang-average putter on paper, that club is transformed of late. His per-round strokes-gained figure of +0.73 since May would put him fourth on the PGA Tour.

And the good thing is that this expectation that Deere Run suits is in contrast to a course record which reads MC-MC if you only glance at it. But dig deeper and you'll see that he missed on the number in 2022 because he putted badly. His form coming in was MC-MC-MC and he had no top-40s in three months.

Prior to that, Kohles played in the event back in 2013, where he also missed the cut – this time during a period which had seen him finish a best of 62nd in 10 previous starts. He would've struggled whatever and wherever the golf course and, just like his performance two years ago, it tells us nothing about his prospects this week.

Second in the Byron Nelson in May, the most recent shootout he's taken part in, Kohles is a fascinating each-way player at three-figure prices.

Sticking with the outsiders, Nate Lashley fits the bill on paper but often flatters to deceive and it's PATTON KIZZIRE who is more difficult to resist at generally bigger prices.

Since we were on him at an absurd price on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he withdrew on a brutal day of scoring, Kizzire has five top-30 finishes in six on the PGA Tour. In a field like this, that makes for one of the strongest form profiles, even if he's generally played in the weaker fields.

As for his course form, that too represents some of the most solid: he's played here five times, with four top-30s, never shooting over-par in 18 rounds. When you consider that he's often arrived in abysmal form, that can be upgraded. In 2017, 2018 and 2022, his performance here was his best in several months. Last year he was missing cuts everywhere, so only in 2021 has he arrived in Illinois with confidence, and he was 11th.

I'd venture that he feels even better about his game now than he did then and among this field, he ranks second in both strokes-gained approach and greens in regulation. He's been a bit more accurate than usual, too, and while the putter hurt him when 20th last week, it was decent for 24th in the Nelson and 10th in Myrtle Beach.

Only that club prevented him from making the cut in Canada which would've meant six in a row for the first time in three years and, having lost full status at the end of 2023, he's now climbed to 126th in the FedEx Cup standings. That's a familiar number to him – it's where he finished last year's regular season – but the way he's playing now, he can keep on moving towards safety.

That process could well accelerate here and having won two shootouts on the PGA Tour in the past, he's by no means an unrealistic champion.

Power preferred to outsiders

Max Greyserman and Patrick Fishburn are two players I'm quite keen to be on at some stage soon but they're possibly not ideal fits for this. Greyserman does at least putt well and would be the pick of the two having impressed in flashes; Fishburn meanwhile is hitting it so well, but his putting is a real weakness that I can't overlook.

I did also consider Matt Kuchar, whose form now reads 34-17-MC-33-50-25, three of these six either majors or Signature Events. Like Kohles his poor course record comes with caveats: he hit it well on several occasions many moons ago, then didn't play here from 2010-2022, his peak years. It's therefore unfair to say the course doesn't suit and there might be some mileage in the pick of the prices.

Adrien Dumont de Chassart has shown flashes of the promise which briefly had him on the Ryder Cup radar and now gets to tee it up in Illinois, where he went to college. He's not done enough lately to merit inclusion though and neither has Nick Hardy, although of all these others mentioned, he and Kuchar were closest to making the staking plan.

The case for Hardy is that he's four-from-four here, getting better with each visit; his long-game is in good order, and he ought to be inspired by Zurich Classic teammate Davis Riley's first solo win. He suggested as much when 10th at halfway in Canada on his next start and though fading in Detroit, that was the first time he's made the weekend there in three attempts.

Hardy is particularly tempting but the bottom line is that while being at home must help, he won't be winning this without putting a good deal better – even if the year is 2024.

Back up the betting and Beau Hossler, Eric Cole and SEAMUS POWER all made some appeal, with clear preference for the latter.

Hossler's long-game was good in Detroit and he's played pretty well here in the past while Cole's approach work might have turned a corner there and, in finishing sixth, he did well to compete with generally much longer hitters at a soft golf course.

But it's Power who has the best course form and arguably the best current form, having not only had a chance to win back in the spring at the Valspar (which correlates well with this), but played nicely since in better fields, including when 20th in the Travelers.

Nineteen of his 20 rounds at Deere Run have been under-par including a 64 and two 65s, so having signed off with a fine 63 at River Highlands, he'll expect to get quickly back among the birdies at a short course which clearly plays to his strengths.

This is his grade, too, with Power's wins having come in the Barbasol (at Deere Run winner JT Poston's expense) and in Bermuda, and a quartet of top-30 finishes in Signature Events lately suggest he's going to be a danger to all. Take anything 40/1 and bigger.

Posted at 1000 BST on 02/07/24

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