Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Irish Challenge preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Irish Challenge

2pts e.w. Deon Germishuys at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Pierre Pineau at 40/1 (bet365, Unibet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Marc Hammer at 66/1 (BoyleSports, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Gary Hurley at 100/1 (BoyleSports, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Jeremy Freiburghaus at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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The K Club hosts this week's Irish Challenge and the first thing to note is that we're on the South Course, which is not the one which hosted the Irish Open last year nor the Ryder Cup in 2006. Whereas that famed layout is pure parkland, its sister course goes for the 'inland links' description, always a little oxymoronic but nevertheless instructive.

It reminds me a little of the Belfry, where the Brabazon is another Ryder Cup venue we all know, but the adjacent PGA is much more rugged, which is usually all it takes for a course to throw that word 'links' in there. Neither plays like it's by the sea but one factor which helps is the wind, often a factor here and set to be throughout rounds two and four in particular.

Conor Purcell will arrive bidding for a quick-fire double and I'm kicking myself a little for missing him last week. Purcell's course form at Galgorm Castle was abysmal, enough to look elsewhere, but one thing we should always consider at this level is home comfort. Whether in Northern Ireland or here in the South, that was a potential factor in his favour, and comfort of the course kind would've helped find the second and third, too.

I'll say it again that when you're struggling to turn a profit once flights and hotels are factored into trips to South Africa and then India, Spain then Scandinavia, anything which helps these lower-ranked players feel at ease can be massive. For Purcell, who had been playing well, it was no doubt a huge part of the winning formula, and as he likes it more here at the K Club that double isn't necessarily beyond him.

Returning to the venue, it was used a couple of decades ago on the DP World Tour, and then again two years ago when Todd Clements dominated. Clements has since gone on to win at Albatross in Prague, which is an exposed, resort course, and I also wonder whether Bernardus in the Netherlands could be a good guide. He played well there, as did runner-up Tom McKibbin, and it's very much a modern, inland links.

Clearly, we can't draw as much from wins for Retief Goosen, Colin Montgomerie and Stephen Dodd. That said, Dodd had won in Ireland a year earlier and Montgomerie was winning on the island for a fourth time. Given that Clements had twice been third from just three previous visits, and that Goosen had done something similar, it could pay to look favourably upon those who've performed well in Ireland in the past.

That's especially true inland, and there's quite a good correlation with Carton House if you dig deep enough. This point might not seem particularly useful when we're more than a decade on from the Irish Open being held there, but the Eisenhower Trophy, a top amateur event, was played at Carton House in 2018. A few players from this field fared OK in that.

All roads lead back to MARC HAMMER, a capable if slightly unreliable youngster from Germany who won the Euram Bank Open two summers ago on what was just his sixth Challenge Tour start.

Second soon after and then third last year, he's made the Grand Final in both seasons at this level which is a decent indication of his talents, and having made five of his last seven cuts he's finally starting to show signs of the consistency which had been lacking.

Weekend issues mean his best finish of the season is 10th place but that was just two starts ago when, on his debut at a funky course, he was third through 54 holes. Then, back at Adamstal, he was sixth entering the final round, so finishes of 10th and 39th across these two aren't a reflection of the promise shown.

In fact over his last five starts he's been right in the mix at some stage four times, the other seeing him miss the cut by a shot, so the German looks to be very close to putting it all together and challenging for his second win.

Perhaps skipping last week's event will be a negative but the return to Ireland may not be. It's his first professional start here, but Hammer was seventh and 13th in two appearances in the Irish Amateur, and also played for Germany in that Eisenhower Trophy held at Carton House in 2018.

It's all quite speculative but I like the price and, at 25, this former top-100 amateur still has plenty of potential.

Underrated Pineau worth following

The first show of betting featured a dozen players at 20-28/1, among other things an indication of the competitive nature of this tour. I still rate Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen the benchmark despite a disappointing second round at Galgorm Castle, with Hamish Brown next, but the former is about the same price as last week only without the positive course form.

Andrew Wilson made the cut on the PGA Tour last time, following DP World Tour finishes of 10th and 20th, so he's an obvious class-dropper but that word obvious is key. Last week we were on a player who finished alongside him in Italy at three-figure prices; Wilson is vying for favouritism.

With Felix Mory a little tricky to win with and Martin Couvra short enough, their French compatriot PIERRE PINEAU is preferred.

I'm a bit of a fan of Pineau and believe he's generally underrated. His short-game was seriously impressive when we saw glimpses of him on the big tour and it looks like his long-game has improved quite a bit, marking him down as a player with a bright future.

He does still make the odd big number, which we saw again during the final round last week, but seventh place there was a nice effort on his debut at a difficult course. Among the six above him, only red-hot Brown was making his debut at Galgorm Castle.

This time, at the K Club, it's Pineau who features among a smaller group of players who have the advantage of previous experience. He finished 21st here two years ago despite a slow start and that was before he'd gone on to properly establish himself on the Challenge Tour.

The more exposed, rugged nature of the South Course ought to suit given that he went on to win by the sea in Portugal and contend in Mauritius, and I really like what he's been doing this year. Pineau has found a high level of consistency and having put together back-to-back top-10s at the end of May, he can do the same thing with another here.

Sebastian Friedrichsen is another of the many young, exciting Danes in the sport at the moment and was the 54-hole leader in the Italian Open recently. Like Wilson, he made the cut on the PGA Tour last time and he'd be preferred of the two at the prices, but 40/1 feels about right. He was in the mix on his most recent Challenge Tour outing but is a bit too erratic to trust.

I must also mention Lucas Bjerregaard. Having put him up at 200/1 in Denmark in May, seeing him produce finishes of fourth, seventh and 14th in five starts since that missed cut has been a bit frustrating and he's now a quarter of the price, but that's not to say he can't now be value. We know all about his class and his two DP World Tour wins came across a collection of exposed, links or links-like golf courses.

Irish eyes smiling again?

I was really keen to get some of the UK and Irish challengers on side, not least because they filled the first four places here in 2022. We've had four home winners of sorts this season and there were more in 2023. As noted above, there are definite advantages to playing at home and with smallish crowds, there's not necessarily the added pressure you might find at higher levels, either.

Unfortunately, with Purcell now close to the head of the betting along with John Parry and Wilson, Dave Horsey not having quite done enough to convince me his turn is coming and defending champion Brandon Robinson Thompson not at the top of his game either, options look a little thin on the ground.

Pick of them is GARY HURLEY, who could feed off Purcell's win and go very close.

He was 35th last week, a decent effort undermined by a poor final round, and the same thing happened before that when he tumbled down the leaderboard on Sunday in Austria.

Still, he's a runner-up this year who has seldom looked far away and he sounded pretty bullish when speaking with the media last week.

"I’m playing very nicely," he . "I scrambled really well today but at the same time I felt like I hit so many good shots that were just a fraction left and in a bunker had to lay up or get up and down. Pushed one on 14 into the water, got up and down for bogey from 130 and on another day I’m six or seven under for the day.

"Today I was most comfortable with my ball striking. Three birdies on the back nine and one on the front. The game is solid. This course demands a lot from you, I’m happy with how I’m playing and how I’m striking it."

Hurley also talked about how much he was looking forward to the K Club and why wouldn't he be, having contended when fifth two years ago. That was his first Challenge Tour start of the year and he'd been playing on the Alps Tour, so his overall form has more substance to it now.

Given that he's always struggled at Galgorm Castle, last week's effort looks all the more promising and he can press on at a course he prefers.

Relying totally on that 2022 leaderboard feels simplistic and I was initially inclined to overlook DEON GERMISHUYS, but his third place at Bernardus, along with fifth here, made it difficult to.

That performance in the Netherlands potentially underlines his suitability to this test given that McKibbin and Clements both played well there and Germishuys, who plays out of a modern, inland links course in South Africa, should feel more at home than when mid-pack at Galgorm Castle.

He's among those dozen or so players who make up the first wave of the betting and I wouldn't go below 25/1, but with that price and a shade bigger available across the board, he makes the staking plan. There's really not much between most of the favourites and his experiences here two years ago could give him the edge.

Pietro Bovari contended in Austria and played well enough again last week to be of some interest. The young Italian is promising and I just wonder whether the Olympics might play a small part mentally, as his amateur highlight came at Le Golf National in Paris when he and his teammates won the Eisenhower Trophy.

Younger still is Oihan Guillamoundeguy, who has gone 8-12 over his last two starts. He turned pro very early and is still a teenager, but having began the year priced shorter than he is now, his upturn in form is intriguing. Perhaps he'll go well again.

My final selection though is proven at this level yet can be backed at monster prices. JEREMY FREIBURGHAUS was 12th last week after an admittedly poor run, and his closing 66, bettered by just one player, may just have him primed to take another step forward.

Freiburghaus had shot 77-81 on his previous trip to Galgorm Castle so it was a massive improvement and while it's taken him time to find some form, that can be traced back to a nightmare rookie season on the DP World Tour which will have knocked his confidence.

The last time he played a full Challenge Tour season was 2022 and he finished second on the Road to Mallorca, winning in England and contending several times. That gives you an indication of what he's capable of and the 28-year-old has to be worth a small go at 150/1-plus.

Posted at 1645 BST on 30/07/24

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