Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Houston Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Houston Open

3pts e.w. Sahith Theegala at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Jason Day at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Keith Mitchell at 40/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Rico Hoey at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Parker Coody at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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In some ways, I wonder whether the last thing Scottie Scheffler needs this week is to win the Houston Open. To do so would be to land a rare hat-trick, the kind that would send Masters hype into overdrive. Is that really what you'd want, if you were him?

Now, Scheffler is not you or I. He is, as they say in the United States, built different: the idea that winning again could be a bad thing probably hasn't crossed his mind. And as the lovely Meredith seems unlikely to, say, accidentally shove him down a flight of stairs, he'll go to Augusta as clear favourite with the highest of expectations regardless.

It's this kind of straw-clutching that you might feel you need if you're betting against the 11/4 favourite in the Houston Open, an event he probably should've won in November 2021, back before he'd done any winning at this level.

Scheffler is a longtime Texas resident who returned to finish ninth a year later and whose game is a dream fit for the demanding Memorial Park. A municipal par-70 measuring close to 7,500 yards, this place features one of the longest collections of par fours and fives anywhere on the PGA Tour. It's also a nightmare around the greens, where grass is generally mown tight, and hitting the right sections of them on approach is no picnic, either.

Not even the neck issue that troubled him at Sawgrass can be used in mitigation, as he simply won't play if it's still bothering him. Should it reemerge mid-tournament, maybe, as he'd be less likely to succeed in plotting his way around here without being able to go full tilt, but the bottom line is we have to accept he's going to be hard to stop.

Betting without the 11/4 favourite is an option that some bookmakers have dangled already but I will say this: Scheffler was brilliant in The PLAYERS, but somebody really should've beaten him. At the prices, I'm absolutely comfortable hoping that someone might prove up to the task of doing so this time.

Top of the list is SAHITH THEEGALA, one of the form players on the circuit having upped his game since winning his first PGA Tour title back in the autumn.

Theegala has three top-10 finishes in his last four and four in eight so far this year, continuing to look deadly with the putter, occasionally proving just as adept with his irons and, crucially, showing clear signs that driver could become a strength.

That club had held him back at times as Theegala can be wild, but he's 25th in strokes-gained off-the-tee having been 134th in 2023. Nevertheless, just as Silverado is a course where you can get away with spraying one or two, the wide fairways here in Houston have to be considered a positive.

So does the location. Theegala's breakthrough came in California, his home state, with a throng of friends and family in support. But he will consider this no less of a home game, as he lives a 40-minute drive from the golf course having chosen to base himself in Texas, and those supporters of his are expected to be with him once more.

Having been 61st on debut and then 22nd on his second go, he has a bit of course form already, but both times was held back by poor driving and quiet putting. The former has definitely improved and having led the field in putting at Sawgrass, he is one of the very best in that department among the elite and those on the fringes of it.

That PLAYERS top-10 came at a course where he'd gone MC-74 previously and he has others at courses more alike this one, with Torrey Pines and Augusta both potential sources of encouragement. So is Vidanta Vallarta and he played really well there for three of the four rounds on his sole visit, finishing a decent 24th.

Better is expected now and with his win having come after two top-15s in succession, his performances at Bay Hill and Sawgrass suggest he might be about to strike once more. Hopefully he can at the very least make life difficult for the favourite.

The other one I like at the front of the betting is JASON DAY, a three-time winner in Texas down the years, including both his first and his most recent titles.

Day was disappointed with his long-game at Bay Hill, where he finished 36th having been close enough to the lead early on, but there were some better signs at Sawgrass where he triple-bogeyed the last to finish 35th.

Par there would've been a top-20 finish and with the exception of Torrey Pines, somewhat ironically given his record there, he's been thereabouts in every start so far in 2024. Three top-10 finishes in seven all came in spite of rather than thanks to his putter, and he looks pretty close to his recent best.

What caught my eye about his PLAYERS performances was how few mistakes he made, which could be vital this week. Over the first 36 holes he played 35 in par or better, making double at the 17th on Friday, while both bogeys on Saturday could've been avoided had he holed relatively short putts.

Come Sunday he was cruising at four-under with a few to go until three-putting from 25 feet and then making that error on the last, so it smacks of a performance which was far better than the stats and the eventual result would indicate. For the most part, he hit it well and looked in good shape.

Like Theegala, the fact that he's so comfortable around the greens is a potentially big positive at Memorial Park and he's shown that on all three visits, finishing seventh on debut when out of form generally, and 16th last time out in November 2022.

All three saw him putt to a good standard and as far as his long-game goes, it seems certain that his coach, Chris Como, will be with him this week. Como is based in Dallas and Day was clearly comforted by the work they did together prior to the start of The PLAYERS Championship. More fine-tuning could do the trick.

No time to dwell on Mitchell meltdown

There are a few players at prices from 50-100/1 that I like, including Davis Thompson who drove it well here on debut, and would be a threat if that aspect of his game improves again following the Valspar. He'll need to putt better but, along with the talented Thomas Detry, certainly made the shortlist.

So did Patrick Rodgers and he was the last off it. His records at Sawgrass and at Copperhead are respectively awful so a pair of missed cuts can be excused, leaving us with a player who contended here on his last visit, and who has three top-10s from as many visits to Vidanta Vallarta, which ought to be a good form guide.

The pick of the prices are really tempting but I'm going to give KEITH MITCHELL the chance to redeem himself following Sunday's collapse at Copperhead.

Despite the presence of Scheffler this is overall a weaker field and the positives from that display are easier to see having slept a couple of times since.

Mitchell's approach play in particular has to go down as hugely encouraging, potentially the thing that could elevate him to elite status if he can stop being so hard on himself.

Three times this year he's been first or second in strokes-gained approach and that's a huge leap for someone who has for a long time been among the best drivers around, but whose irons proved a constant source of frustration.

Capable of big putting weeks from time to time, there's a serious player in there and while his final-round nightmare won't be easy to recover from, the fact is he still ended the week as the leading ball-striker in the field. What might have been.

Ninth here in the last edition of the Houston Open, that came after a missed cut and a run of poor performances, while he'd driven it typically well the previous year, too. It looks a good course for him and there can be no doubt that this former Honda Classic champion wants conditions to be demanding if he's to be at his best.

As for whether he can recover, the Masters ought to help sharpen focus. Mitchell, a Georgia resident who went to college there, and who has made the cut on both previous Augusta starts, has two more chances to play his way to an invite. There's no time to waste dwelling on one bad day at the office.

At a course no less suitable, and having finished third the week after he closed with an 82 at the Valspar a few years ago, I rate him value at 33/1 and bigger.

In-form Matti Schmid is another potential option and by now you'll know I'm keen to side with longer hitters in general. As well as wins for Carlos Ortiz, Jason Kokrak and Tony Finau, names like Trey Mullinax and Joseph Bramlett demonstrate the advantage held by those who can hit shorter irons into these typically firm and treacherous greens.

That brings us to my favourite bet of the week, RICO HOEY.

One of the longest drivers around, he ranks 11th in strokes-gained off-the-tee this season, while 34th in strokes-gained approach tells you that he's hitting his ball to an elite standard.

Chipping and putting has therefore been problematic given that he's yet to make a real impact anywhere, but for the first time last week he gained strokes putting, and that was courtesy of three good rounds in four rather than one red-hot day on the greens.

Like Mitchell, he suffered a chastening final round but before that Hoey sounded encouraged with where he is.

"I think everything's kind of coming together a little bit," he said. "I'm still getting my feet wet out here. I think it's being out here everything's so grand and just playing with the best of the best, I am just working hard and just trying to get better each and every day.

"Overall I think I'm doing everything pretty good, but I'm just one step at a time."

He'll need more of a leap than a step to hit the frame here but he has been getting closer, sitting 14th, 23rd and 14th at halfway in his last three events, and inside the top 10 through 54 holes in each of his last two.

Then we come to his record in Texas, which reads 19th, 20th and third, all at Korn Ferry Tour level. Significantly, the latest two of those came at a course where Tyson Alexander won back-to-back, and it was Alexander who chased home Finau at a monster price here 18 months ago.

It's no exaggeration to state that Hoey's long-game is statistically among the best in this field so far this year, so another good putting week, at a course where he can hit more drivers, makes him a fascinating candidate. If you're to risk any weakness then chipping is the one, even here, and he's capable of hitting enough greens to contend.

Finally, coming home to Texas might just held the Coody twins and PARKER COODY is the one who has looked most comfortable so far.

Making five of seven cuts on a piecemeal schedule is no mean feat and it's probably significant that his two best results came at Torrey Pines and Vidanta Vallarta, driver-heavy courses with longer approach shots and a clear advantage to the bigger hitters.

Coody's iron play has been his strength and that was true again last week, where he ranked 12th despite a Sunday dip. He'd been seventh in that department in the Farmers, 20th in Mexico and 24th in the Cognizant, while his strongest driving display by far came at Torrey Pines' fearsome South Course.

This is the first time he's played in Texas since his career began to take off last summer and while not as long as his brother, Pierceson, he's certainly long enough. Anything 200/1 or bigger is worth a fun bet in an event which will help determine how short Scheffler is in the Masters betting.

Posted at 1100 GMT on 26/03/24

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