Ben Coley's golf betting tips: German Challenge preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: German Challenge

4pts win Wilco Nienaber at 16/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)

3pts win Robin Williams at 20/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. John Axelsen at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1.5pts e.w. Gregorio de Leo at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Koen Kouwenaar at 350/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

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Just seven events remain for graduation hopefuls to qualify for the Challenge Tour Grand Final, where only the top 45 players will tee it up and battle it out for 20 DP World Tour cards. Thankfully, only four of them feature the word challenge, including this week's Big Green Egg German Challenge.

Writing about the Challenge Tour without overusing the word challenge is a real... challenge. Should've saved that joke for the D&D Real (Czech) Challenge in a month's time. I need another holiday. Or another winner.

Anyway, there should be a genuine sense of urgency as we enter September and it's been a good summer so far for the best players on the circuit, with another relatively short-priced winner emerging as the circuit returned to Poland last week.

That man was Angel Ayora, one of the most promising Challenge Tour players around, and he'd have been just about favourite to go back-to-back had he chosen to come here. However, at ninth in the Road to Mallorca standings he's been able to enjoy the luxury of joining John Parry and Brandon Robinson Thompson at Crans, which takes away some of the strength of this field.

In fact with 14 of the top 20 on the Road to Mallorca absent, that sense of urgency is intensified. This is a golden opportunity for players hovering around the various cut-offs, at a time when this seemingly competitive, hard-to-resolve tour is seeing the classier players sweep the board. Right now, there's a lack of depth exacerbated by the opportunities presented by a weakened DP World Tour.

Ayora is of course Spanish and they've won two of the three renewals of this tournament at Wittelsbacher Golfclub. It's hard to say why that might be and the short history of this event is generally a bit conflicting: winning scores range from seven- to 17-under, and either side of a powerhouse leaderboard in 2022 there have been loads of short, accurate drivers in the mix.

There is though a potentially illuminating factor which may mean that 2022 leaderboard is the one to focus on: the move in the calendar, back to September. It's not just the date (the 2021 edition also took place in September) but the 'unusually high amounts of rainfall' in recent weeks, according to the tournament director and Google translate.

That could manifest as thick, lush rough, but it has reportedly been trimmed down. It should also remove some of the firmness of a course which plays close to 7,500 yards despite featuring just three par-fives and one very short par-four. Everything about it suggests that good drivers will be at an advantage. Likely long ones, but good ones above all else.

All this is backed up by the handful of interviews you can find prior to previous editions and by the three champions. Francesco Laporta, who won here last year, is at his best a good driver despite not being the longest. Alejandro del Rey very much is one of the longest and best, while the tidy Angel Hidalgo ranks 34th this season on the big tour.

Now to the problem: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, WILCO NIENABER, Mikael Lindberg, Wil Besseling and Lucas Bjerregaard are all strong drivers when firing, which Bjerregaard has been again lately. He's a fine example of how being ahead of the game doesn't always pay, as we were on at 200/1 a couple of months ago and he's now 12-16/1 having kept on improving since, but this also shows what value can be found at lower levels.

The one I like most among those listed is Nienaber, former winner of the German Boys' title and at last ready to go and secure DP World Tour membership. It may surprise some that he's yet to do so, only ever playing from a lowly category, and it's a statement of intent that he passed up a spot at Crans to come here instead.

At 21st in the Road to Mallorca, that was the right decision, but the sort he hasn't always taken. It could just pay off and after matching the winner over the final three rounds in Finland, where we were on-board at a similar price, I have to have him on-side again.

It's rained some more in the days leading up to the event and I think this could prove an ideal setting for the South African powerhouse, who hasn't missed a cut since early May and has been playing as well as he ever has. The fact that he boasts a strong record at Galgorm Castle, where he was fourth last year, is also a positive as Laporta and Hidalgo both tend to play well at another course where strong drivers thrive.

Granted, Nienaber has a self-destruct button which is reflected in making him a win-only selection once again, but the weather is forecast to be glorious for the most part, there's every reason to expect him to go well. The five players ahead of him in the battle for cards have chosen not to be here. Nienaber has given up a spot at Crans and I hope he can make it count.

Neergaard-Petersen is the other one I respect and he's twice a winner in Germany as an amateur, but at a best of 12/1 and with his putting a bit of a problem lately, he's overlooked in favour of one of the other standout talents in this field.

I'm just as keen on Nienaber's compatriot, ROBIN WILLIAMS, who is one of a handful dropping down in grade.

He was 12th in Prague three weeks and two starts ago, on a soft course where good driving was essential, and that club is his strength. Williams averages 0.7 strokes-gained per round off-the-tee on the DP Would Tour, which would put him eighth in the rankings had he played enough rounds to qualify.

As with Nienaber he ticks the Galgorm Castle box having been fifth there recently, one of four top-fives in his last eight Challenge Tour starts. The only thing missing is a win and it looks like it's coming, especially now he's had a taste of being near the lead at a higher level than this.

Two of his other top-fives came on broadly similar golf courses and it's little wonder he has shown a clear preference for parkland golf, given that he grew up playing a classic, James Braid design in the middle of England before electing to play under the flag of South Africa.

His Sunshine Tour win came at Glendower, where Hidalgo finished fifth earlier this year, and again that fits the bill. He should really enjoy this course and 20/1 looks a good price, as you could easily rate him the equal of someone like Bjerregaard or indeed Nienaber, and he has way more scope than the likes of Besseling and Robin Sciot-Siegrist.

I'm happy dutching the two South Africans win-only and expect both to me in the mix if, as expected, this does play into the hands of the best drivers in the field.

Wield the Axe

Regular readers may not be surprised to find JOHN AXELSEN next.

He was selected at 80/1 and 200/1 in May and June but played very poorly and with the exception of a decent share of 12th in France at the end of the latter month, that remained the case until very recently.

However, eighth place at a tree-lined, parkland course in Scotland preceded 19th in Denmark, where he stumbled from a good position entering the final round of that DP World Tour event. Still, it was another big step in the right direction and one he followed with fifth place last week in Poland.

At his best during what was a promising rookie campaign last year, Axelsen demonstrated his driving prowess, leading the field in the KLM Open and ranking inside the top 10 on another couple of occasions. He ended the season well above-average and, like Hidalgo, that's about accuracy as much as it is power.

Both recent starts on the big tour have seen him strike the ball well and he gained strokes through the bag in his native Denmark. Simply put, he looks to have turned the corner and at 73rd in the Road to Mallorca standings, I'll be disappointed if he can't yet play his way into the Grand Final.

Perhaps Niklas Norgaard's win last week will provide a further spark among the Danish contingent and while both Bjerregaard and Jeppe Kristian Andersen are respected, Axelsen remains an exciting prospect who looks close.

I'd have been very keen on Felix Mory but for a drastic dip in form. The Frenchman was so bad last week in Poland that it's hard to have any faith despite the fact he placed here two years ago, revealing at the time that it was a home game as he's lived in Germany for a while. Perhaps home comforts will help, but I won't be taking that chance.

His compatriot Sebastien Gros reignited his career with 11th in this 12 months ago and has come a long way since, but I keep coming back to the fact that winners on the Challenge Tour tend to fit into two categories: class acts, and players with big potential. Gros is a good player at this level but he's 40-50/1 and, on the back of that 11th place, we were able to back him at 175/1 in Finland the following week, let's not forget.

He holds no secrets and having been in the mix at halfway in five of his last 10 starts, it feels to me like the market is on to him.

By contrast, GREGORIO DE LEO has plenty of potential having been the top-ranked amateur in Italy before making the switch and having breezed through the Alps Tour, his second season on this one has taken off now.

He's made 12 of his last 15 cuts, one of them 10th place in the Italian Open, and that springboard has helped him to a nice run since returning to the Challenge Tour, culminating in fifth place last week.

That would've been second but for a double-bogey at the tough 18th but De Leo is thrilled with the state of his game entering the closing stretch, so from 46th in the Road to Mallorca – the 'bubble boy' when it comes to making the Grand Final – expect him to get close to the top 20, especially with a return home to Italy around the corner.

He might strike before then, however, as he looks like a good driver of the ball and my eye is drawn to his effort at Galgorm Castle last August. There, he shot 66 on the host course but played poorly on the very different one which hosts a round of the ISPS Handa World Invitational, so it's a little bit hidden from view.

Galgorm Castle really does strike me as the best place to hunt for clues and the fact that he's also gone well at Le Vaudreuil and Adriatic Golf Club suggests this might be his bag. He also won the Italian Amateur at a course Hidalgo likes, while his home course is a tree-lined, dog-legged layout which could pass for this one if you were looking at a course map.

At the right sort of course, after his best finish of the year, in a weak field and with the Grand Final now within reach, he looks a strong contender.

Home hopefuls offer limited value

There's always a risk that you pay for home advantage with a shorter price but I still generally think punters are getting the better end of the deal. Poland last week lacked a strong home challenge, but in Sweden before it, Joakim Lagergren beat Jesper Sandborg. The latter was playing not just in his homeland, but at his home course.

Nico Lang gets to do the same this week and on his professional debut, too. On his best amateur form he'd have a better chance than the maximum odds suggest, but he's had an awful 2024 and will struggle to make the weekend unless finding a chunk of improvement from somewhere.

Anton Albers was on my radar as he's played better lately without connecting four rounds. Only professional for a year having been a borderline top-50 amateur, his first cut made as a pro came here last year and he has promise, but 66/1 looked very much on the short side.

With Jonas Baumgartner yet to find his feet as a professional I was more interested in Marc Hammer and Michael Hirmer. The latter is from Munich, just an hour away from this course, and Challenge Tour form of 12-MC-8-8-MC-MC is strong before even considering that all three missed cuts were by a single shot.

Hammer meanwhile has been playing steadily and while course form of MC-28-MC isn't spectacular, again both missed cuts were on the number. These two look the pick of the Germans but it's about finding value and I don't quite see enough in any member of the home team on this occasion.

I'll finish off then with KOEN KOUWENAAR who I was very surprised to see chalked up among the genuine outsiders.

The former top-30 amateur has done nothing on the Challenge Tour since finishing third in Sweden two years ago and that probably explains why you can take 400/1 in places, but that performance tells you he has the quality which had always been promised.

Last year was a disaster as he missed every cut at this level, always by a distance, and again that is part of why we can take such big prices. And you only have to go back five weeks, to a second-round 81 on the ProGolf Tour, for another reason to expect him to do as he's so often done and miss the cut.

The thing is, since then he's gone 1-3-2, all on the ProGolf Tour, first winning a play-off having been in front all week, then beaten a shot, before finishing second behind a clear winner on home soil at the weekend.

How you rate this form is a difficult question to answer and Sunday's winner, James Meyer de Beco, was doing so for the third time since March. He ranges from 150 to 250/1 and if you're of the view that the gap between these tours isn't massive, the Belgian also merits attention.

What's more interesting to me is that Tadeas Tetak is being supported at 50/1. He was five behind Kouwenaar at the weekend and is fifth on the Order of Merit, which Meyer de Beco leads. Perhaps that's because he's been here before and played well, which is of course noteworthy, and he did win in Germany back in July.

Still, Kouwenaar is probably being written off because of his course form and to my mind it's not relevant. Last year he didn't make a single cut and in 2021, he arrived after rounds of 75-77 on the PGT. This time, he's that circuit's form player, without question, and when Cedric Gugler fit that description a few weeks ago some firms made him 50s and nobody made him more than 100/1.

Gugler played more bad golf than good during his run of starts but did bag a top-10 finish along the way. Hirmer's strong Challenge Tour form is another indication of what's possible – he's 13th on the ProGolf Order of Merit having admittedly played 12 times to Kouwenaar's 16 – but again, he's a 50/1 chance generally.

Nicolas Horder is way down in 44th yet he finished 19th in Poland last week, and the ProGolf Tour remains an excellent feeder circuit, through which the likes of Thomas Rosenmuller, Sami Valimaki and Nick Bachem have emerged along with Hurly Long, Nicolai von Dellinghausen, and plenty of other good DP World Tour types.

Make no mistake, Kouwenaar reverting to missed cuts now up in grade would not surprise me in the slightest. Nor would him being in contention for this, the latest to take winning form with them as they climb the ladder. Anything 150/1 or bigger gives us the wriggle room to speculate and at the time of writing, two smaller firms offer 400/1, bet365 go 350, Paddy Power 300, and William Hill 250.

Posted at 2000 BST on 03/09/24

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