Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Dubai Invitational preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Dubai Invitational

5pts win Rory McIlroy at 3/1 (General)

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A new year on the DP World Tour begins with a new event, the Dubai Invitational, which sees a select field of 60 professionals tee it up alongside amateurs for the first three rounds, before things get a good deal more serious on Sunday.

In some ways it seems a sensible way to resume, rather than with a Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi which is now the penultimate event on the schedule. That tournament has thrown up some pretty sizeable shocks down the years and it's reasonable to argue that some of the better players were at times caught out by a lack of sharpness, allowing opportunists to take advantage.

In other ways, it's a bit of a half-hearted return to action but at least the inaugural edition begins on the front foot, with RORY MCILROY returning to one of his favourite parts of the world, and if anyone does finish in front of him they might well have won the tournament.

McIlroy is one of just three Ryder Cup players in the field and while it's packed with DP World Tour winners, there's not a great deal of strength in depth if we're talking proven, world-class performers like him.

The best of the rest is Tommy Fleetwood, who flies around the world from Hawaii where he finished 47th of 59 in The Sentry, and then we get to the fast-improving Nicolai Hojgaard, who captured the DP World Tour Championship at the end of a fabulous 2023 and is as short as 9/1 in places to double up.

I've long argued that Nicolai is a step ahead of his brother and while still behind in total wins, he has now captured one of the biggest titles on the circuit, he's played in a Ryder Cup, and he's also a PGA Tour member for the season ahead – which means it's now Rasmus doing the chasing.

They'll spur each other on and it's not a coincidence that the latter ended the year also playing well, but the fact that these fabulous twins are third and fifth in the betting, with Adrian Meronk rounding out the top five, reveals that this is far from the strongest DP World Tour event you'll see this year.

Rewind to last January and McIlroy's return in that dramatic Dubai Desert Classic, and you'll see my point. Tyrrell Hatton, Robert MacIntyre, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee, Patrick Reed, Abraham Ancer and Thomas Pieters all played there, yet McIlroy was 100/30 to do what he did and get the better of them all in a full-field event.

I think it's a mistake to put him in at the same sort of price for this, averse though I am to putting up favourites at single-figure odds in competitive golf tournaments. McIlroy should be shorter and for that reason he picks himself as the headline bet.

For further context, the 10 players behind him in the market are all around half the odds they were for that Dubai Desert Classic, some even less than that.

Just five or six players in this field, those who've largely struggled since like Adri Arnaus and Guido Migliozzi, are set to go off bigger. The reason is that the field is half the size and the players at the head of it are not as collectively strong, so shorter prices ought to be a given and that applies to McIlroy, too.

The question mark is the course, and this par 71 does look a little different to Emirates Golf Club. Yet McIlroy has thrived wherever he's played in the Middle East, he does know Dubai Creek, and with two short par-fours to go with three reachable par-fives, he should find ample opportunities to play the game the way he likes to play it, and to stamp his class on this tournament.

Yes, he was quiet in that DP World Tour Championship won by Hojgaard, but don't forget McIlroy hadn't played since a top-scoring display the Ryder Cup, and he'd already locked up the Race to Dubai. No wonder he wasn't at his best, either mentally or physically, having put so much into his personal redemption mission in Rome, and been at the centre of all the headlines generated there.

Perhaps he won't be quite match-sharp here, but his last 15 seasonal reappearances show 13 top-fives culminating in that victory over Reed. He's been runner-up five times, carelessly giving up a couple of chances in Abu Dhabi and losing a play-off to Graeme Storm in South Africa, and it'll be a big surprise to me if he's not in the mix on Sunday.

Rarely would I say that, and at 3/1 generally and a bit bigger on the exchanges, he has to be the bet despite the risk that he plays well without winning, in which case he'd head back to a stronger Dubai Desert Classic and go off a similar if not shorter price despite it being harder to win.

Dubai resident Thorbjorn Olesen is another of that group of strong but not quite top-class players sitting just beneath McIlroy in the betting and he ended 2023 right at the top of his game, while there were good signs from Arnaus, who also bases himself in Dubai, and I can fully understand why he's attracted bits and pieces of support.

One of those whose price has held up well versus events last year is Antoine Rozner, despite some promise towards the end of the campaign, but his driver is a worry and Dubai Creek, which features plenty of water, might just catch out this two-time winner in the Middle East who impressed in the Hero Cup last January.

At bigger prices it's tempting to roll with the hot putter of Jeff Winther, who rediscovered his game in November and contended at Jumeirah Golf Estates, while recent LIV Promotions qualifier Kalle Samooja has a strong record in the Dubai Desert Classic and enjoys the luxury of knowing he could well double or triple his career earnings this year whatever happens this week.

Neither of those would mind if wind plays a part in toughening up what's a relatively short course and if that's the case, perhaps it'll be enough of a leveller to keep McIlroy out of the frame. I doubt it, however, and in a field of 60 players, most of them part of the rank-and-file, it's the world number two who can put on a show, just like he did when returning to action in Dubai one year ago.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 08/01/24

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