Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Czech Masters preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Czech Masters

4pts e.w. Tom McKibbin at 16/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2.5pts e.w. Matthew Jordan at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Sami Valimaki at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

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Not often is it easy to relate to professional golfers, but fellow parents who are currently battling through summer holiday season will empathise with those who asked for a break in the schedule following the Open Championship in mid-July.

Preserving energy for the fight to keep your card is one thing – but the real challenge is making these uniquely precious and brutal weeks pass by without alarm. It wouldn't surprise me were some of the dads of the DP World Tour moved to tears when they get back to work and tee it up in the Czech Masters.

Last year was the first with this summer break and it didn't interrupt the flow of Daniel Brown, the subsequent Open antihero who had found form he was able to hold onto. Brown won by five in Northern Ireland and spoke about how the two results which secured his card a month earlier, 17th and seventh, had given him freedom to go out and enjoy the final part of the season.

Behind him in second was Alex Fitzpatrick, who had been playing and winning on the Challenge Tour after a fine Open performance of his own, while fourth-placed Wilco Nienaber was another Challenge Tour member who hadn't taken much time off. But there were also those, like Eddie Pepperell and Adrian Otaegui, for whom the break was a welcome chance to reset. For now, conclusions are difficult to draw.

Unfortunately, the guesswork doesn't end there, because as well as coming forward slightly in the schedule, this event has left its longtime home at Albatross. Perhaps, after seeing 66/1 selections Tapio Pulkkanen and Gavin Green beaten at odds-on in-running in 2021 and 2022, change ought to be welcome. The trouble is, they fit a specific profile as strong drivers for whom that course was absolutely ideal, so it really isn't.

PGA National OAKS Prague is widely considered the best in the country and at least looks an upgrade in that sense. Designed by Kyle Phillips (Bernardus, Kingsbarns, Verdura, Yas Links, PGA Sweden National), this is more private retreat than the tourist-friendly, resort-style golf of Albatross, and visually it's much more appealing, with intimidating bunkering and a heightened threat level off the tee, often because of a linksish feel that colours many of Phillips' most recognisable courses.

That being said, driver could still be key as it's long at 7,592 yards and while two of the four par-fives are over 600 yards, I suspect they'll prove reachable for the bigger hitters, the ninth playing downhill from the second shot and hole 16 a dog-leg with a cross bunker designed to challenge elite players. If there are those who can carry it and be chipping or putting, and those who have to lay back, that may be important. There's also one par-four which ought to be driveable and a couple more which could be worth that risk.

The other point of order is that this is a particularly weak field. Rasmus Hojgaard, Laurie Canter, Sebastian Soderberg, Thriston Lawrence, Rikuya Hoshino, Matteo Manassero, Guido Migliozzi and Keita Nakajima are just some of the bigger names absent, while Ryan Fox, Nicolai Hojgaard, Matt Wallace and Matti Schmid would all have taken prominent positions in the market had they elected to come here following the end of their respective FedEx Cup bids.

As such this seems like the right time to get back on board with TOM MCKIBBIN, who went off at the same price for the Italian Open which featured Canter, Migliozzi and Patrick Reed, and saw him finish a luckless second to Marcel Siem.

That was another event which had moved course and there's no way it suited McKibbin perfectly, as there were plenty of irons off tees and relatively few opportunities to put his driving to use. The youngster almost made up for it with the best approach play figures of his career, in the process showing the sort of adaptability which highlights a player at the very top of their game.

He's been close all year on the DP World Tour, where he's the best player already and getting better all the time, and I think we're benefitting here from the fact his two subsequent starts have been at a much higher level than this. First he missed the cut narrowly in the Scottish Open, then he played all four rounds at Troon, entering the weekend in 28th despite a difficult set of tee-times.

Had this event taken place immediately after the Italian Open he'd have had to be much closer to 10/1 yet I don't think anything he's done since is at all concerning. In fact, the way he played over the opening 36 holes of the Open should be seen as a big positive and, speaking when hosting the NI Open on the Challenge Tour recently, he certainly seemed happy with how it all went.

"To have played two majors this year and made both cuts, it’s been pretty special for me to get eight rounds under my belt on those type of courses," he told the BBC, having also been thrilled to play alongside Darren Clarke for the final round and reflected upon the fact that an early first-round tee-time put him at a big disadvantage.

To my mind it's quite likely he kicks on again over these next few months, with a PGA Tour card well within reach, and this is a fantastic opportunity to take that next step in what's such a promising career. Some will have expected more from him in Scotland but remember, he grew up at Holywood, which is a parkland course. Like Rory McIlroy before him, links golf is something he's still getting to grips with.

I don't recall seeing Niklas Norgaard any shorter than he is for this and the same goes for Richard Mansell. Along with Bernd Wiesberger, these are three more quality ball-strikers but with much bigger short-game concerns than McKibbin, who rates a bet down to 12/1. I'm surprised he didn't open up at those odds.

Antoine Rozner has a good record on Phillips-designed courses and has contended on his last two starts, which makes this proven winner of some interest. The trouble is he's another whose putter has been running cold and with his driving still not as consistent as he'd like, the Frenchman can be left out. He's probably not far away though and the price is fair, especially if you feel he might be inspired by Paris 2024.

I found it more difficult to ignore MATTHEW JORDAN, a player I really rate and whose last two performances suggest he could emulate Brown in getting off the mark at the next opportunity.

Jordan was 26th in the Scottish Open then 10th in the Open and while the links conditions of those two events clearly suit someone who played golf at Hoylake from a young age, by no means is he dependent on them.

He has top-five finishes around tight, tree-lined courses in Kenya and Belgium this year, further top-20s in Bahrain, Germany, Sweden and India, and in the simplest terms looks a winner in waiting, one who has some good Phillips form of his own at Kingsbarns, Bernardus and, to a lesser extent, Yas Links.

Key to Jordan's improvement has been his approach work – he's up 90 spots to 18th in the season-long standings – and he might have got off the mark already but for a few problems over short putts which have hopefully been resolved, with his numbers better across those two most recent starts.

With driver long having been a weapon of his, the slightly-built Jordan being a pound-for-pound powerhouse, he's not far off the complete package. While he may find that it's too soon to join McKibbin in earning a PGA Tour card, I'd be keen on him doing so next year granted fair luck with injuries and so on.

For now, a strong second half of the season can begin in Prague, where he'll be glad of a change of scenery having missed the cut at Albatross last year. Backing him in fields like this ought to pay off soon enough providing he can hit plenty of drivers. That absolutely looks to be the case at a course this long.

Finn fancied dropping in class

There are two other angles I was keen to consider for what is a shallow event. One is whether those who've been playing recently might be at an advantage, a description which covers all sorts from Olympians to Challenge Tour members to those who played on the Asian Tour last week. The other is familiar, I suspect: the idea that PGA Tour form remains underrated.

Among the first cohort, Andy Sullivan, Tom Lewis, Kristoffer Broberg and Kiradech Aphibarnrat were all eye-catchers last week, particularly the latter given that he climbed from 118th after round one to finish 13th in an event won by Peter Uihlein.

I can't help but wonder whether the emotional Aphibarnrat might just be able to use Paris as a springboard, having represented Thailand there a week earlier, and his performance at Foxhills was almost enough to give the benefit of the doubt to a player who lost a play-off when selected on these pages at 100/1 in Singapore.

That came after a couple of strong finishes on the Asian Tour and having shot 63 at Kingsbarns and been fifth at Bernardus, he's the one I kept coming back to ahead of Broberg, who won at the last-named course and was catching the eye quite regularly at the beginning of the year. If you're looking for outsiders, consider these two proven winners who remain capable of returning to the upper echelons of this circuit.

As for that PGA Tour form, the gaggle of Americans travelling over are all on the general decline and Ryo Hisatsune rather showed his hand with third place at the Wyndham Championship, but SAMI VALIMAKI rates a cracking bet at 33s and upwards.

Valimaki was 12th in the John Deere Classic last month and while a run of MC-MC-45 since then may not appear all that encouraging, the first two were on-the-number missed cuts in the Scottish Open and the Open Championship, which is absolutely fine with me.

After that, the big Finn started well in Paris only to fade in high-class company so again, as with McKibbin, we do have to put this form into context. These events have been won by Robert MacIntyre, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler and he's not been disgraced in any of them.

At 98th in the FedEx Cup standings, Valimaki is an extremely short price to earn back his card for 2025 so, like the one-two in the return event last year, this is a bit of a free hit for a player who won the Qatar Masters and went on to bag PGA Tour status through the Race to Dubai.

In a field like this, there's a very simple argument to be made that he deserves to be shorter on what he's achieved on the DP World Tour. For my money that case is significantly enhanced by what he's done on the PGA Tour since January, particularly as by his standards he's not set the world alight with the putter whereas his long-game has been solid.

The fact that Valimaki won in the Czech Republic on the ProGolf Tour and was placed in this last year is a nice little bonus along with some encouraging Phillips form (10th at Yas Links, 10th at Valderrama which Phillips restored, placed in the Dunhill Links where he shot 68 at Kingsbarns). He has to be one of the main threats to a favourite who looks about as solid as 16/1 shots come.

Posted at 0900 BST on 13/08/24

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