Ben Coley's golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship

3pts win Aaron Rai at 20/1 (General; 22+ Betfair Exchange)

2pts win Matt Fitzpatrick at 30/1 (Betfred, BetVictor; 40+ Betfair Exchange)

1.5pts e.w. Justin Rose at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Laurie Canter at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Shubhankar Sharma at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 475/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Since returning after a post-Open break, the DP World Tour has eased us back in with some low-grade fodder for the purist, taken us up into the mountains and the wonder of Crans, brought us back down to earth for the raw splendour of Royal County Down, and now heads to its spiritual home, Wentworth, for the BMW PGA Championship. If you don't love the best tour in golf by the end of September, then you simply never will.

For those of a certain age, this tournament, and more so this golf course, will always be special. It's via the World Match Play, at Wentworth, that I first came to love watching professional golf; how I first became aware of players like Ernie Els, Colin Montgomerie and Lee Westwood. School days would end with a sprint to my grandma's house where, rest assured, the golf would be on. And with matches lasting 36 holes, I hadn't missed too much.

It's a decade since that event sadly bit the dust and what a shame that is, but the BMW PGA Championship continues to thrive and will be supported by a packed crowd on what promises to be a glorious Thursday at least, before a more unsettled forecast takes over. Whatever the weather brings, this tournament will be a real spectacle. When Keith Pelley once spoke of the DP World Tour Championship as the flagship event on this golf tour, he had it badly wrong.

History matters. Venues matter. It matters that Tyrrell Hatton had grown up walking these fairways before coming back to capture the biggest title of his career. It mattered to Westwood that he couldn't quite get the better of Luke Donald as his compatriot went back-to-back. Regardless of their purse or their rebranding, whether you call it a signature something or name it by its destination, some tournaments exist on a higher plane. This is one of them.

On Sunday night, Rory McIlroy ruefully declared that he was getting used to near-misses after his clumsiness and a blend of fortune and brilliance from Rasmus Hojgaard transformed the Irish Open. Those inclined to believe he'll struggle to recover quickly may be right, but in January this year he let slip the Dubai Invitational, then captured the Dubai Desert Classic. And let's not forget that he dominated the 2011 US Open after his meltdown in the Masters.

Fourth place on his return to action after perhaps his worse heartache of all at Pinehurst, and a contender a week after his infamous OB debacle and Friday charge at Portrush, McIlroy's resilience is part of why he's never not been elite since he first won as a professional. Fifteen years of dealing with what it's like to be at the top of this sport mean he'll be ready on Thursday and whether you're betting five, six, eight or 10 places, one of them likely belongs to him.

English players have so often raised their games at Wentworth and why wouldn't they. Only occasionally do the best of them have a golf tournament to play on home soil and this is 'fifth major' territory for those, like Hatton, Danny Willett and Chris Wood, who grew up watching their idols battle it out across the famous five-five finish which has so often produced fireworks.

That's partly why Tommy Fleetwood makes such sense but at four-times the odds, JUSTIN ROSE could bring the house down with what would be an immensely popular success.

Rose is a bit in-and-out these days, but we're a year removed from his ballsy, avuncular Ryder Cup display and 18 months on from his win at Pebble Beach. This year, he's played plenty of average golf but could so easily have won the Open from the wrong side of the draw, and also contended for the PGA Championship.

I recall colleague and friend Matt Cooper once theorising that Rose would be the type of character to continue to pop up when it really matters and this was two or three years ago. He's been proved absolutely correct, Rose having six major top-10s since golf returned in the summer of 2020, and you can be sure this event is towards the top of his hit-list, behind only the three majors he hasn't won.

Twice runner-up at Wentworth earlier in his career, including well before he hit his prime, more recently Rose has continued to demonstrate that he has the game for the West Course. In fact over his last four appearances, again dating back to 2020, he's produced three high-class tee-to-green displays and was forced to withdraw from the other with a bad back.

Last year's 36th came after a generally quiet spell and saw him rank 10th from tee-to-green, and he was fourth in the same category when settling for sixth in 2021. This time around he's followed that excellent runner-up finish at Troon with a narrow missed cut at the Wyndham, then 22nd in the FedEx St Jude Championship, where again his long-game looked good.

Rose's iron play has been much better lately, ranking fourth in the Open and 15th at Southwind, and he's been rock-solid off the tee. Having been generally putting well until a bump in the road last time, there are more than enough positives to believe that he can be a factor down slightly in grade, at one of the handful of tournaments he's still desperate to capture.

I've toyed with the front two in the betting and it feels like Fleetwood is primed for this after a welcome week off, but at twice the price I'm drawn towards AARON RAI instead.

Runner-up last year, Rai is the right type for Wentworth, a course where driver doesn't necessarily get you very far. It's only really in use on two of the par-fives, one of which is extremely difficult to hit in two, and the Burma Road is more about playing chess than it is puffing out your chest.

That suits Rai just fine, as he's a meticulous, precise golfer who is more accurate than he is long, albeit he's by no means a short hitter. While he's become a rounded player who can cope with everything from links to the shootout he nearly won in Texas back in May, a technical, tree-lined course where accuracy is key is absolutely ideal.

He's shown that with three quality tee-to-green displays in his five Wentworth appearances, all powered by being among the best drivers, and right now his approach play has never been better. He's just finished the PGA Tour season ranked seventh, which makes him first among this field, and it's no coincidence that his long-game has been especially effective around classical courses.

It was at one such course, Sedgefield, where he bagged his first PGA Tour win and while he's cooled a little since, he was in fact second in strokes-gained tee-to-green the following week at Southwind. That he could only manage 16th tells you what went wrong and we will need his putter to warm up again, but it has improved with each week since and we may not need much better than average for Rai to contend in this.

His form upon arrival last year was far less impressive yet he pushed Ryan Fox all the way and now, playing on home soil as a PGA Tour winner for the first time, he looks a major danger in his quest for precious Ryder Cup points. On that, like Matt Wallace he'll know he has a job to do in order to qualify for the final two events of the DP World Tour season, his intent signalled by also entering next week's Open de Espana.

Nobody would be surprised were Rai to do as Wallace did and take care of business, and this course should bring out his best.

All sorts of golfers have contended here but the common denominator is approach play. Yes, it's almost always important, but seldom if ever is it as vital as has been the case at Wentworth. Since strokes-gained data was first produced by the DP World Tour, 53 players have finished T10 or better in this event – and each of them gained strokes with their approach shots.

That might not seem extraordinary, but Wallace failed to when winning in Crans, and lately we've had players finish first or second at most permanent DP World Tour stops despite losing strokes in this category. By contrast, some of the very best iron players are on the BMW PGA roll-of-honour: Fox, Hatton, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Donald, Matteo Manassero, and so on. In fact there are really no exceptions.

That's why Sebastian Soderberg had been high on my list, his profile made more appealing by the fact that a poor overall course record hides the fact he co-led at halfway last year. Unfortunately, he hasn't been missed in the betting and I'm both surprised and disappointed by that. My expectation was that we'd be able to take 80/1 and no lower than 66s, but the latter is in fact a standout price with Sky Bet at the time of writing.

I'll pivot to old friend-turned-foe BERND WIESBERGER, who has been shunted out in the betting.

Last week I mentioned Wiesberger and the fact that he was 33/1 to Matteo Manassero's 66s, the pair having both been 25/1 in Switzerland. Manassero offered a reminder that one week should never mean everything by contending on his way to third place and he's now the one at 33s to Wiesberger's 66s.

Hopefully the same formula yields another contender and Wiesberger, fourth behind Soderberg in this year's strokes-gained approach stats, has certainly got the right game for Wentworth. Overall he's made nine cuts in 11 appearances and while yet to really contend, he was second in strokes-gained tee-to-green on his penultimate visit, then closed with a career-low 66 on his most recent.

All told he's now on a run of 14 rounds of 72 or lower and with 12 top-25s in 15 non-links events so far this year, his form has depth and substance to it. Clearly, the putter has been a problem, but it's shown a few signs of improvement lately and last week's second-round 66 to make the cut from 138th place after day one was a mighty effort all things considered.

Wiesberger has won at Rolex Series level before and a test of ball-striking where long driving isn't a must is right up his street, especially one where his underrated chipping and bunker play can also come in handy. As such, he has to be included at upwards of 50/1. My view is that a class act will win this again, but also that Wiesberger still qualifies.

The man who denied Wiesberger in Germany, when we were on board, was LAURIE CANTER – another quality ball-striker with sound each-way credentials.

Canter has admittedly been a little quiet since winning the European Open, but I'm of the view he hasn't played a suitable course since then. Three of his subsequent appearances have been by the sea, he's been to fiddly layouts in Italy and Switzerland, and only in the Netherlands might he have had things set up nicely. That was days after his long-awaited breakthrough, though.

Last week's 17th at Royal County Down was more than solid for a player who is definitely better suited by an inland, parkland course, and I like the fact he holed a few more putts. Canter said during the event that he'd had a new putter built which had helped free him up somewhat, which hopefully extends through the BMW PGA.

Runner-up in this on debut when striking the ball wonderfully and stumbling only on the 71st hole, Canter was uncharacteristically poor off the tee on his second go, but once more his irons were first class. In fact across six rounds played at Wentworth, he's gained an average of 1.9 strokes with his approaches; anything close to 2.0 is very good, and more of the same would be ideal.

Further incentive comes from the fact that he's one place outside the cut-off for PGA Tour cards via the Race to Dubai as things stand and this supreme ball-striker, one of the best in the field, could really kick on now he's held firm to win as a professional. That meant a heck of a lot to him, another reason perhaps why he's been a bit quiet since, but the Irish Open could have him primed for this.

Jordan Smith has rediscovered his game lately but getting over the line in this company looks a big ask, which is also the reason for overlooking Connor Syme. The latter is at his best around tree-lined courses like this one, he contended here last year, and his ball-striking last week offers real encouragement. Typically a good putter, I wonder if he could be a bet to pinch top Scotsman honours from Robert MacIntyre.

Returning to the search for the winner and I was tempted by Nicolai Hojgaard, though perhaps too much of that was down to the fact that his brother Rasmus scored the biggest win of his career on Sunday. When Rasmus won in Crans a couple of years ago, Nicolai captured the Italian Open a week later, and these two will continue to spur each other on towards a potential Ryder Cup pairing in 2025.

Nicolai's approach play is a strength, too, and he was a decent 20th on debut here, but the bottom line is that his driving hasn't been close to its usual standards and, even if it had been, he might be hamstrung by the course. His wins in Italy and twice in the Middle East have all been at longer ones where his raw power is a game-changing weapon. Around here I'm not sure that it is, and he's far from the most accurate.

Instead, I'm taking the bait and overlooking some concerns regarding MATT FITZPATRICK, who is more than twice the price he would be had he arrived in peak form.

The reasons for doing so are that he's got the game for this having first broken through at Woburn, since won twice in Crans, and captured a US Open at a classical American course, Brookline. Fitzpatrick is yet to miss the cut at Wentworth in eight starts, has been the halfway leader, and started brightly 12 months ago.

This is a weaker renewal, without Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Min Woo Lee, Tyrrell Hatton and one or two more, and to be frank there are a number of players towards the head of the market who don't win often. Adam Scott for instance looks solid, but it's a long time since he got over the line, albeit he was a tad unfortunate in Scotland.

Back to Fitzpatrick and he admits his game hasn't been where he'd want it to be but a final-round 64 in the European Masters was much more like it and having been to see his coach since then, and no doubt worked hard on his driver set-up after that cracked face episode in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, I could see him using that as a springboard.

Fitzpatrick was 18th and 28th in those two FedEx Cup events, which in itself is decent form, and carded a second-round 64 at the Olympic Games before a hand injury forced him to withdraw. Fifth in both the Memorial and The PLAYERS earlier this year, both again played on the sort of tree-lined course he favours, he's a big price for a class act and I'll take on board the risk that his ball-striking isn't quite up to scratch.

Splitting stakes between him and Rai, who once battled it out at Fanling where Rai won his first DP World Tour title, is my approach. It won't be for everyone, certainly not those who don't like backing seemingly out-of-sorts golfers, but Fitzpatrick's price is too big for me to ignore, particularly the remarkable 40+ available via the exchanges at the time of writing.

Ben An and Si Woo Kim both have the games for the challenge but the Presidents Cup looms large while Fox's long-game was good last week, but he did confirm a nagging hip injury and defending is a big ask. Fox was probably the most tempting of those omitted given that his ball-striking numbers remain extremely impressive and that he's won some big titles, none bigger than this one, in Europe.

I'll fire a couple of darts to finish off, with SHUBHANKAR SHARMA first up.

Sharma has made four cuts in five Wentworth appearances including when in contention on debut, then ninth in 2021. Only the following year did he struggle, but he'd made just two of 10 DP World Tour cuts and missed five more in succession from this event onwards, so the fact he could still muster a second-round 68 tells you how much he enjoys this test.

He's in far better form now. Sharma has made his last 11 cuts, shooting a course-record 65 at Royal County Down last Friday to keep the streak alive, and four top-20s in his previous six starts show a player banging on the door. He came closest at a tight, tree-lined course in Italy and wherever he can get away with being a short driver, he looks a potential threat, as he again demonstrated in the Open.

His approach play at this course has been nothing short of outstanding and he's 22nd in that category this season, so if the putter fires in the way we know it can, and he can rank among the top dozen or so in driving accuracy, then he has a squeak. I suspect Sharma's confidence is extremely high at the moment and he's always had a likeable ability to stand tall against the best players around.

Adrien Saddier and Alex Bjork are two more quality iron players with some sort of potential and Bjork is probably a little underestimated at three-figure odds. I wouldn't want to go much lower, though, and he's a better bet for a top-20 finish having been 12th on each of his last two DP World Tour starts. Saddier meanwhile could upstage some better-known Frenchmen having been mid-pack on his sole previous start when in dire form.

But I'll give EDDIE PEPPERELL another chance at a monster price.

He was disappointing at Royal County Down but one bad week on links land is never a major concern, and all that I wrote about his small signs of encouragement, particularly since he returned to action following his wedding, remains true just seven days later.

Pepperell had been second at halfway in Denmark and close to the lead at the same stage in Switzerland, his trademark iron play complemented by some welcome putting improvement. We know by now he's poor off the tee but it never stopped Donald or Alex Noren winning here and at a lower level, Pepperell's way of doing things is somewhat similar, albeit I'm sure he'd love to tap into their short-game skills.

Two top-10s at Wentworth confirm that it's a good course for him and twice over the last four years, he's been one of the very best iron players in the field. Close to winning in Scotland, Wales and Ireland and a former British Masters champion at Walton Heath, he's so often raised his game back on home soil and with his price having more than tripled, I can't leave him out.

Posted at 1000 BST on 17/09/24

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