Ben Coley's golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Pebble Beach

3pts win Max Homa at 18/1 (General)

2pts win Patrick Cantlay at 20/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Wyndham Clark at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Cam Davis at 110/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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Like many, I am not very fond of no-cut events with limited fields, preferring the meaningfulness of a cut and the added possibilities of a larger field, but if there's one event it might particularly benefit then it could be the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Historically played over three courses and in the company of amateurs throughout, both of those dynamics have changed for the better. Now, we get an additional round at Pebble Beach, one of the most recognisable courses in the sport, and come the weekend we don't have to watch amateurs as part of our paid-for TV subscriptions.

These changes reflect the event's elevation to 'Signature' status and that also means we've all of the best PGA Tour golfers present, headed by Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland. The timing of this tournament, and its pro-am format, has often meant for weaker fields in recent years, but while only 80-strong, this one is elite.

Two dynamics shape the staking plan.

One is the weather, which has been wet and is forecast to get wetter, with Saturday perhaps the only round for which waterproofs won't be required. The other relates to this improved field and the fact that the likes of McIlroy and Scheffler have kept Pebble Beach off their schedules for the most part, last appearing here in the 2019 US Open.

This will reflect the calendar, the format and the purse rather than antipathy towards the course, but it strikes me how many of these Signature (née Designated) events were won by tournament regulars last year: Matt Fitzpatrick at the Heritage, Scheffler in Phoenix, Jon Rahm in both Hawaii and at Riviera, Hovland at Muirfield Village, Keegan Bradley in the Travelers.

There's no doubt that some of the best players would rather have skipped certain events, the Heritage and the Travelers in particular given their timing, and while there are no such issues with Pebble Beach, ultimately there are a number of world-class players in the field who simply haven't played here often. There are others who never miss it.

One of those is Jordan Spieth, understandably popular after his putter came to life as he contended for The Sentry, but I'm not sure there's much value left in the prices now on offer and will instead split stakes between MAX HOMA and PATRICK CANTLAY.

Under fairer conditions, both would be recommended as strong each-way fancies, but if there's one thing that concerns me it is the prospect of being caught out at Pebble Beach during a particularly miserable stretch. For that reason, I'd rather halve the total investment and forfeit the place part in what could be a volatile tournament.

The case for Homa writes itself. He's won four times in his home state of California since the beginning of 2021, that's in just 14 starts, and while not a permanent fixture here has played in the event on six occasions. His form figures, MC-29-MC-10-14-7, follow his career trajectory and he was seventh when feeling like his swing wasn't where he needed it to be on his most recent visit.

Back in 2015, when far from the level he's at now, Homa ranked second in Pebble Beach scoring on his way to 29th place, and more recently he's 12-under for his last 54 holes at Spyglass Hill. The removal of Monterey Peninsula, where he'd so often struggled, looks to be to his benefit.

Having been in excellent form since the middle of last summer, capturing the Nedbank Challenge not long after he'd been the best US player at the Ryder Cup, Homa has made a strong start to the year, finishing 14th in Hawaii and then 13th last week.

It's worth noting that The Sentry probably isn't ideal for him, and last week's title defence at Torrey Pines saw him climb from 50th at halfway having had a quiet round on the easier North Course. Come Sunday he was briefly in the mix so it was a good effort on the back of another break.

We know by now that tougher conditions are more suitable and he defied horrible weather in the Wells Fargo Championship in 2022, so aside from the inherent randomness of the expected conditions, he looks to have a lot in his favour.

Homa said last week that the Farmers was an ideal preparation for this more high-profile event, particularly given how soft Torrey Pines was and how churned up the greens became, and playing there could prove another significant edge over three of those ahead of him in the betting.

The same goes for CANTLAY, albeit he did his best work at the North Course before a fairly unimpressive display at the South.

However, Cantlay has never really got on with Torrey Pines and was there as a means to an end, the intention being to arrive sharp for Pebble Beach, Phoenix and Riviera, three events he's been close to winning in the past.

He's seven-for-seven in terms of cuts made here at Pebble Beach and led the field in scoring at the host course when third in 2021, when he was also the best player in the field from tee-to-green. On his only subsequent appearance he finished fourth, and he's ended his last 12 rounds in this event inside the top dozen.

"Whenever I'm on poa annua greens at a course like Pebble Beach it feels like I've played courses like that my whole life," was his comment back then and while it has been a quiet start to the year, he too isn't necessarily an ideal fit for Hawaii, and then came a shootout in La Quinta where he sat 10th through 54 holes before a bad Sunday.

Cantlay took an extended break after his post-Ryder Cup wedding and I suspect this diligent operator is primed for a much better February, starting at a course he first played as a 12-year-old, and where he chose to make his comeback following a lengthy absence in 2017.

Both Homa and Cantlay can be backed at bigger prices on the exchanges, roughly 22.0 and 26.0 respectively, and I'm happy to have two of the most Pebble Beach-ready golfers among the elite batting for me against the big three and the reliable Xander Schauffele.

Fitzpatrick likes it here too and could be forgiven a missed cut on his Sony Open debut, one of the low-key hardest tournaments for a first-time visitor. The former US Open champion, who was 12th here in the same event in 2019, only had an off-week with the putter in Hawaii and placed in this off a long break a couple of years ago.

The other I considered at less than 50/1 was Jason Day, twice the price he was for the Farmers. That's quite a shift based on one performance even allowing for the field (Tony Finau is just a hair bigger than he was at 28-33/1) and he does have a similarly excellent record in this event, though in his case the absence of Monterey Peninsula is a definite negative.

Next on my list is WYNDHAM CLARK, who looks ready to back-up his US Open win over in Los Angeles.

Like many of the more surprising major champions, Clark hasn't necessarily kicked on since then, but it's worth saying nor has he missed a cut and he played some decent golf to end last season in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Since returning to action he's got his driver dialled in, a club which had just dropped a notch, and he's started hitting greens again with his approach play notably improved over two measured rounds in the AmEx last time out.

A closing 63 at The Sentry before that a second-round 64 at La Quinta helps to suggest he's not far away and he's managed this with a largely misbehaving putter, the club which underpinned those two wins in the space of a golden six weeks last summer.

Hopefully he'll improve in that department here, having historically been good on poa annua, and if that's the case then I like his chances having produced an eye-catching debut round at Pebble Beach in 2019, also played it well in 2020, and been at the start of a dreadful run of form when missing the cut in 2022.

Given the weather I do see his power as a potential advantage versus standard conditions here, which won't be unfamiliar to him anyway, and he's excellent value at anything north of 50s.

I'm also sweet on ADAM SCOTT, for all that I do have some doubts as to whether he quite has it in him to fend off the world's best.

Scott won't see it that way and rightly so, his ambitions still lofty, and he talked about how good a place he was in when beginning his season in Dubai.

The former Masters champion added another top-10 finish to his tally there, making it nine in 18 starts since last year's Masters, and it was especially encouraging to see him produce his best driving display in a couple of years.

Now established as a high-class putter, even if yes we all might still hold our breath if he's stood over an important five-footer on Sunday, Scott looks to be playing some of his best golf in some time – perhaps since his last major top 10, which came here at Pebble Beach in 2019.

It is a concern that he's among those players who hasn't had this on his schedule down the years, but there is some sneaky encouragement to be taken from two starts in 2018 and 2019, where Scott missed the cut but in fact produced some of the very best golf in the field at Pebble Beach.

With two Riviera wins to his name and a few close calls at Torrey Pines, he's been a habitual contender in California, and his experience might count for plenty if it does get horrible.

Based on his form over the last nine months, at the very least he looks a rock-solid bet for another high finish and I wonder if this might be his best chance to beat elite golfers for quite some time.

Kurt Kitayama caused a massive surprise in capturing one of these at a brutal Bay Hill last year and might fancy doubling up given his form in bad weather and the fact he's been in the mix in this on a couple of occasions.

He's respected along with Maverick McNealy, for whom this may be a bit too soon in the comeback, but my final selection is CAM DAVIS who I feel certain is up to winning something significant.

Davis has been producing bursts of excellent golf lately, opening with a 62 in the Sony and also shooting rounds of 63 and a couple of 65s in recent starts, including on the toughest course in the AmEx last time out when the scoring average was around 69.

Putting it all together is the problem but it could just happen here at Pebble Beach, where he boasts progressive form figures of MC-59-38-14 and has driven the ball especially well on three of his four visits.

Notably, Davis was third in Pebble Beach scoring in 2021, the last time he played in the event, and while Spyglass cost him a top-five finish that week he'd played it very well a year earlier.

Having been based in Chicago for several years now he should have no excuses in windy, cooler conditions and as with all my selections, a little extra off the tee won't go amiss this week.

Posted at 1130 GMT on 30/01/24

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