Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Andalucia Masters preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Andalucia Masters

2pts e.w. Tom McKibbin at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Laurie Canter at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 45/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Freddy Schott at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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This speculator autumn in Europe has seen Rory McIlroy twice beaten at odds-on in-running, Jon Rahm suffer the same fate on home soil, and two players capture big, national opens at 150/1 and upwards. There have been fancied winners, Tyrrell Hatton chief among them, but even he was almost done by a 500/1 chance who would have been heading into retirement had he not come alive in Scotland.

It took just one golfer in each of the Irish and Spanish Opens, plus the BMW PGA Championship, to prevent a run of McIlroy-McIlroy-Rahm-Hatton, and this is the mental hurdle you have to clear if you're backing an 11/4 chance in a golf tournament. Precisely how many of those in the field for the Andalucia Masters you consider up to winning doesn't really matter: there are, in the end, a lot of them who could be this week's Angel Hidalgo.

Rahm, though, isn't much shorter than he was in the Open de Espana, despite there being no Hatton, no Tommy Fleetwood and no Shane Lowry. That's probably because he doesn't have such obvious course form at Real Club de Golf Sotogrande, but with the one-two from last year absent, hardly any do. Besides, Rahm played the European Nations Cup here as an amateur and fared well, so it shouldn't be an excuse.

That said, Rahm did lose the Open de Espana as much as Hidalgo stood up and won it in the end. Their engrossing play-off and the two birdies Rahm found to force it rather masks the fact that he doubled the 13th hole, less than two months after a stunning implosion from first to fifth at the Olympic Games. With a new baby at home and an exhausting year almost finished now, I don't expect to see him at his absolute best, albeit he may not need to be.

Sotogrande made its DP World Tour debut last year and saw Adrian Meronk storm to victory from off the pace. It was in some ways a freak performance, because Meronk drove it far worse than he ordinarily does, his irons were decent but no better, his chipping was bang average, but his putting was out of this world. Assumptions as to how the course suited him are difficult to make; all we know for sure is that the greens certainly did.

Still, with Matti Schmid second and Richard Mansell third, we do see the advantage that can be gained off the tee at a short par 72 with a driveable par-four and four par-fives. These two ranked second and first respectively in that department and between them and Meronk we've a trio of powerhouses, all of whom made at least one eagle along the way as scoring eased up following some poor weather at the start of the tournament.

This week's forecast is for rain in the build-up but clearing to leave a softened course there to be attacked in warm, sunny conditions, furthering the likelihood that driver is again a key club. What was that Rahm price again?

Perhaps TOM MCKIBBIN can be the man to upstage the favourite, in doing so just about securing his PGA Tour card.

McKibbin sits 14th in the Race to Dubai and that's enough to be eighth among those without membership on the world's premiere men's golf circuit, which will certainly be his goal throughout the final four events of the season, of which he intends to play three.

His form since losing a play-off for the Italian Open in June has cooled but the youngster still has two top-10s from his last six appearances, one of them in high-class company at Wentworth, and 27th place in France last week represented a marked step up on his one previous visit to Le Golf National.

It came courtesy of a closing 64, the joint-best round of the day, and saw McKibbin return to his very best off the tee. That club really could be key and while I'd like to have seen more from his approach work lately, the only real signs of worry come from links golf and a hazard-strewn course in Paris, neither of which tend to prove reliable guides.

Under the more controlled conditions of Wentworth he ranked 15th and with his putting improved from a debut 34th at this golf course, where he ranked third off the tee, I see him as one of the key dangers to the favourite. Not being involved at the finish last week may be no bad thing and he has a clear target in mind.

McKibbin ranks fourth among this field in strokes-gained off-the-tee this season, Mansell and Schmid right behind him as if to emphasise just how much he ought to enjoy this course, and a second DP World Tour title may well beckon.

One place ahead of him is LAURIE CANTER and he could take a big step forward from a narrow missed cut in France.

Canter hadn't intended to come to Spain for this event but having skipped the BMW PGA and the Dunhill Links following the birth of his second child, plans have changed as he too pursues a PGA Tour card.

Currently just 105 Race to Dubai points behind the man occupying the final spot, Guido Migliozzi, who doesn't play this week, this is a great chance for Canter and I think the course will be an excellent fit, far better for him than Le Golf National.

There, he played much better than the end result as he was two-under when in the middle of the fairway at the par-five 14th on Thursday, eventually shooting two-over after some sloppy mistakes, before a double-bogey from nowhere at his penultimate hole on Friday cost him a set of weekend tee-times.

That'll no doubt have annoyed him but such errors can happen after a month off, especially when you're changing nappies, and there were big signs of encouragement when we last saw him in the Irish Open. There, on the kind of links course to which he's never really been suited, he was in the mix at halfway and finished 17th.

I selected Canter for Wentworth on the strength of that display and in this much weaker field, 40/1 generally and 50/1 in places seems a big oversight. His record in Spain includes top-fives in three of his last five visits, he's plainly among the strongest drivers and all-round ball-strikers in this field, and anything upwards of 28/1 is generous.

This theme of good drivers is very much key to my approach and should NICOLAI HOJGAARD return to his best in that regard then he would also make quotes of 40/1 and bigger look silly.

That's far from guaranteed it must be said, but he was good off the tee in the Dunhill Links, his approach play either side was also of a decent standard, and the putter which powered his stunning end to 2024 began to warm up when 18th last week.

Perhaps then things are coming together and just as McKibbin's iron play might be better than the stats suggest, so might Hojgaard's driving. Last week's course is excessively penal and Wentworth is restrictive, so the one time he's been able to unleash, just as he can here, we saw a jolt of improvement which could be telling.

It's undeniably been a year that's petered out after second place in the Farmers followed by a top-20 finish in the Masters, Hojgaard going on to make all four major cuts, but France could just be the springboard he needs if he's to defend his DP World Tour Championship title.

Hojgaard currently lies 82nd in the Race to Dubai and will need to make the top 70 by the end of next week to qualify for Abu Dhabi, with 50th the target to return to the scene of his breakthrough win. That's sure to be highly motivating, along with his twin brother's Irish Open win, and this is a good venue at which to chance him.

Excessive use of words like might and could during this argument tell you all you need to know: he's a risky one for sure, but there's massive upside about a player who featured in the Ryder Cup last year and will return to those levels soon enough.

While Matthew Jordan makes some appeal at a course he also knows following back-to-back top-10s, RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN is marginally preferred.

The young Dane is up on the DP World Tour after three wins on the Challenge Tour and form figures of 13-4-18 since a missed cut in the Irish Open confirm that he has already acclimatised.

What's interesting to me is that he's now up to 107th in the Race to Dubai despite limited appearances and if he can stay above the provisional 115 cut-off for cards, his status will improve. Challenge Tour graduates don't get into all events, not even those who win the Road to Mallorca, and he'll be far better off if he can accrue sufficient points this year.

No doubt that and the small chance he can even get to those two lucrative events in the Middle East explain why Neergaard-Petersen is also in the field in Korea next week but with the Challenge Tour Grand Final immediately afterwards, being able to skip that event would be another big bonus.

It could happen, too, as he has been hitting the ball to a very high standard, ranking fourth last week, and he has experience of Sotogrande having been second to Todd Clements in the European Nations Cup back in 2018. That event probably helped Jeong Weon Ko keep his card with a top-10 finish last year and it could help this young Dane skip another stage, or 'level up' as I believe they now say.

His price is contracting week by week but with good reason so with a high ceiling, and as a player I sided with at similar prices during summer when he was still relying on invites, I think there's still upside at upwards of 33s.

Richard Mansell, Gavin Green and Julien Guerrier are others I couldn't put anyone off. Mansell was third last year and continues to drive it well, Green led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green last week and loves this style of golf, while Guerrier produced by far his best effort in 13 appearances in the Open de France and could build on it.

All are respected but my eye is drawn to those fighting for status, something which is sure to help colour the next two events as it did last year.

Jannik de Bruyn has course form as an amateur and a target on his back at 113th in Race to Dubai points, home hope Rafa Cabrera Bello has just dipped below the cut-off and there's even a case for Clement Sordet at monster odds, but the one I keep coming back to is FREDDY SCHOTT.

This young German topped Q-School last year, here in Spain, and two top-20s in his last three starts have reignited his bid to avoid a return there.

After 17th in Northern Ireland and then 13th in the Open de Espana he missed the cut in the Dunhill Links, but that was only by two shots and he signed off there with a very good round of 69 at Carnoustie, the toughest of the three courses.

With his driver (second in Spain) and putter both firing and 10 of his last 12 rounds par or better, this young powerhouse is more than capable of improving on last year's missed cut, which came during a poor run of form. That extra gear he has in the locker earns him the vote in a tournament where the rest may need it to keep up with Rahm.

Schott is 350/1 with a few smaller firms, 300/1 with Sky Bet, Sporting Index and SpreadEx, 275/1 with bet365, 250/1 with Betfred, or a general 200/1 if you want eight places. Readers will have to do what they can with their individual circumstances, but my advice is a minimum-stakes bet at the biggest odds you can find.

I'd love to include a Spaniard or two as we saw again recently how often they prove capable of raising their games on home soil, but only Alejandro del Rey appealed. He does have the powerhouse game I'm looking for and has drifted to a tempting price, but this has the look of a predictable tournament in ideal weather where the bigger names dominate, including I hope some of the youngest and best on this fine circuit.

Posted at 1800 BST on 14/10/24

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