Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Amgen Irish Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Irish Open

2pts e.w. Ryan Fox at 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Matteo Manassero at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 150/1 (Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Matthew Baldwin at 275/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Oliver Wilson at 475/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Daan Huizing at 475/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Huizing to lead after round one at 200/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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It's sometimes asked why there isn't more links golf on the schedule, why so many of the UK and Ireland's great courses don't regularly host DP World Tour events. The truth is that they and their memberships often neither need nor desire to: hosting means closing the course, putting up grandstands and pausing the tourism trade. The benefits are not as obvious as they might appear, not when a four-ball pays a grand or more to play.

Back in the days when I needed a barber, my barber, a fabulous raconteur whose shop was called Lez Robinz and whose name, I think, was Robin, used to tell a story about a prestigious Yorkshire golf club. As Robin had it, two members would fly their helicopters there for a weekly game, rain or shine. When the European Tour wanted to hold an event at the course, these two wealthy chaps covered the cost to the club so that they could turn it down and not have to reschedule.

While this may be fiction, there's also the simple fact that players can talk all they like about how much they love links golf, but few of them really want to be playing it often. The field for this week's Irish Open confirms as much: there are no elite US golfers, despite it falling neatly between the end of the season and the Presidents Cup. And with Wentworth just a week away, not many of the best Europeans have elected to take in this championship first.

Of course, when you've got Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Seamus Power, Tom McKibbin and Padraig Harrington, plus the likes of Luke Donald, Robert MacIntyre, Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryan Fox, and a fine host course in Royal County Down, you don't need to have everything. For those watching, this should still be one of the highlights of 2024 and the fortnight, with Wentworth to come, is about as good as it gets in terms of men's golf in Europe.

It's nine years since the DP World Tour last came to Royal County Down, an hour south of where McIlroy learned the game. Back in 2015, McIlroy was hosting the Irish Open for the first time and maybe it showed, as he opened with a round of 80 which only two players failed to beat. He's become a more rounded golfer since then, if a less explosive one, but these are still the best conditions for taking him on.

Part of the reason for that is the nature of links golf and what it demands. There are few defences remaining in the battle against clubhead technology, but wind and links terrain are among them. As if to emphasise the point, while McIlroy was floundering, 40-year-old Soren Kjeldsen nudged and nurdled his way to a big-priced play-off win.

Kjeldsen got home by the skin of his teeth after a closing 76, almost pipped by Eddie Pepperell, one of just three to break 70 on a horrid Sunday. Perhaps the way these two short hitters went about it tells us something more: they were respectively fifth and second in scrambling. And that's not unique to the Irish Open, either, because the recent scrambling rankings of Open champions read 3-9-11-1-39-5-4-7-2-4-1. Lowry's win really was an act of magic.

The other point about Kjeldsen, Pepperell and Bernd Wiesberger, who also featured in that play-off, is that they weren't exactly setting the world alight coming here. Kjeldsen's form was the strongest and he had started to play better after his milestone birthday, but neither Pepperell nor Wiesberger had done much since the start of the season, where both had been in the mix in Qatar. The roll-of-honour at Doha is a list of Open or links specialists.

So was this leaderboard. Pepperell went on to finish second in a Scottish Open, Wiesberger won it and so did Rafa Cabrera Bello, who was tied for fourth. Alongside him was Tyrrell Hatton, a two-time Dunhill Links winner subsequently, and there were two more of those, Danny Willett and Matt Fitzpatrick, tucked in just behind.

This is still golf but it's very different, and the best form guides might be from Scotland or even Doha, rather than Prague or Crans. That's not to say we ought to dismiss good play as worthless, but skills had better be transferable now we're swapping a course that's 5,000 feet above sea level to one which, 60 years ago, had to fortify to protect its land from the ocean.

With enough wind in the forecast to keep everyone alert, there aren't many who appeal at short odds. Yes, the Open has often gone to one of the more fancied players, but we had a 500/1 shot in the mix alongside two hard-to-fancy veterans this summer, a year on from a 100/1 winner, and the randomness of this game is dialled up.

Those who made the shortlist were Bernd Wiesberger, Thomas Detry, RYAN FOX and Thorbjorn Olesen, and it's Fox who gets the vote.

Simply put, there's nobody in this field who has such a strong body of work under links conditions away from the pressurised environment of an Open Championship.

Fox has won the Dunhill Links, he's lost a play-off for this title, and he's been fourth and sixth in the Scottish Open. These are just the highlights: he in fact has four top-fives from seven Irish Open appearances, two of them at links courses, and also played well at Troon this summer to be 25th.

With a Challenge Tour win to his name here in Northern Ireland, there's plenty to like about Fox, who over the past few years has established himself as one of the best players on the DP World Tour. That of course meant graduating to the PGA Tour and while down at 104th in the FedEx Cup, it's been a solid enough season.

Last week's winner, Matt Wallace, is a few spots behind Fox and without going over old ground, even with McIlroy present this represents a drop in both grade and intensity. The DP World Tour is more relaxed, more familiar, and time and again players who've been a bit frustrated in the US come back and show that they're playing well.

Fox missed the cut when we last saw him a month ago but his long-game was excellent in the Wyndham Championship, so the bigger worry is that he's not played since. However, it doesn't take much digging around to find signs that it ought not to be: last year he missed the cut in the 3M Open, took five weeks off, then came to Ireland to finish third in this tournament, before winning at Wentworth.

Also eighth in the 2020 British Masters, his first start for four months, this natural, feel golfer has shown that he doesn't need to have blown off cobwebs in order to be competitive, and back at this level he's among the biggest threats to McIlroy and Lowry.

Perhaps he'll be a little more motivated by the fact that he was overlooked for the Presidents Cup again but, like Wallace last week, he has business to attend to anyway. Fox needs a result over the next fortnight to earn starts in the final two events of the DP World Tour season and there's some urgency given that he'll have to go and pick up some FedEx Cup points if he wants to be sure of keeping dual status for 2025.

Plenty to play for then and with his links record in mind, he's bound to be popular. I see no better bet among the favourites.

Wiesberger continues to threaten and is showing signs of genuine putting improvement, so he's respected along with Detry who, unlike Fox, made the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Belgian actually made it as far as the second of two events and with a few good links performance to his name perhaps this will be the week. Olesen meanwhile has won the Dunhill Links but his preference for lower scoring is a worry.

I'd rather chance MATTEO MANASSERO, who has drifted out a fair bit because of a solitary missed cut in the mountains of Crans, presenting us with a potentially fantastic opportunity.

Manassero had shorted to 25/1, the same price as Wiesberger, by last Tuesday and was left out of calculations on value grounds, but he's now much bigger than that solid yardstick and as someone who is reluctant to read too much into one performance, particularly at such a funky course, that makes him hard for me to resist.

There's a strong form case, too. Prior to last week, Manassero had barely missed a beat since his back-to-form victory in South Africa, with four top-10s and a host of other good efforts including a mid-pack finish in the Open and 15th a week earlier at The Renaissance.

His links record dates back to 13th place at Turnberry as an amateur and includes two top-fives in the Scottish Open, plus 19th in the Open itself at Hoylake, and he's certainly shown himself to be a solid wind player. Manassero's crisp iron play is an advantage and he's fifth this season in strokes-gained around-the-green.

Missing the cut here in 2015 is irrelevant because it was the first of 16 in a row as his slide down the world rankings gathered pace. This year he's seldom had a weekend off but recently, when he has, he's responded with fifth in India and seventh in the KLM Open, both times entering Sunday with a chance to win. He's had several of those now and showed at Glendower that he hasn't forgotten how to finish the job.

Inside the top 10 two weeks ago at the Belfry and good in the Olympic Games before that, Manassero's game is unlikely to have deserted him over the past seven days. For my money he rates a bet at anything 40/1 and bigger.

A very similar case can be made for the generally in-form Romain Langasque, whose missed cut at Crans hides some quality ball-striking. He's a former winner of the Amateur Championship, one who placed for us at massive odds in the Scottish Open in July, and could well make it four top-10 finishes in his last six starts.

I just have nagging doubts, perhaps harsh ones, about his attitude at times and if this does turn into a battle with the weather, Matthew Jordan might be better equipped for it.

His play lately has been average, some way below the level Langasque has reached regularly, but links golf is the greatest of levellers and it could in fact elevate him. Jordan of course grew up playing courses like Hillside, Birkdale, Lytham and Hoylake, where he's a member, and he's been 10th in the last two Opens.

Also fifth in the Dunhill Links and at Doha, he really does have the game for the anticipated conditions and I just wonder if that might spark him into life after an admittedly quiet run post-Troon. The trouble is all this is reflected in the betting and given the way he's played since the resumption, 80/1, now gone, would've been my minimum price.

MATTHEW BALDWIN is from the same part of the world and that's something he alluded to when dominating the SDC Championship last year, an event played at St Francis Links in South Africa.

Of course, links golf there and links golf here are not necessarily one and the same but coping with the wind was certainly key to that seven-shot romp, and the presence of Matthew Southgate, Thriston Lawrence and Ewen Ferguson just behind is not insignificant.

"It's been windy all week, it's that sort of golf course," said Baldwin, who was winning on his 200th DP World Tour start. "Fortunately for me I've grown up playing in Southport at Hesketh and Royal Birkdale, so I'm pretty good in the wind and it's worked out a treat for me."

Baldwin hasn't hit the frame since then but it's only taken modest improvements in his putting lately to make him a factor once more. First he was 12th in Prague, charging on the final day despite a long, soft course being against him, then after a narrow missed cut in Denmark he was 18th at the Belfry.

These are two of his three best results since winning, the other a top-10 finish here in Northern Ireland at Galgorm Castle, and the timing of a return to coastal, windy conditions is therefore perfect for a player quoted at massive prices.

Baldwin has been third in this before, albeit on a parkland course, but fifth in the Scottish Open and 23rd in the Open are further evidence that he's got his preferred conditions. The fact that he's been in the mix in Doha more than once is another positive, and he's an outsider with genuine each-way prospects at 200/1 and upwards.

So is EDDIE PEPPERELL, who played the best golf of anyone across the weekend here nine years ago and hasn't been harshly punished for that in terms of his price this time.

The following summer, Pepperell narrowly missed out in the Scottish Open before a top-10 finish at Carnoustie, then a couple of years later his breakthrough victory came in the Qatar Masters at the aforementioned Doha.

With finishes of second, fourth, ninth and 12th in the Scottish Open, second, fourth and eighth in the Irish Open (all on links courses), three top-20s in the Dunhill Links and that Open top-10, it absolutely makes sense that Pepperell's breakthrough came where it did, before he followed up in windy conditions at Walton Heath.

I'm not necessarily keen to place too much emphasis on the 2015 Irish Open because it's a heck of a long time ago now, but his body of work under links conditions across the UK and Ireland is fantastic. Pepperell by the way holds an Irish passport and loves crossing the sea to play here, both in the North and the South.

He got married a month ago too and has returned with a pep in his step, if you'll excuse me for saying it. Twice in three starts since then he's been inside the top 10 at halfway, so it could just be that a return to preferable conditions is all that's needed when it comes to sticking around all week.

Put all of that together and anything three-figures makes plenty of appeal, so he's preferred to fellow Englishman and former Amateur Championship runner-up Sam Bairstow, whose putter has cooled but whose long-game remains good.

Scottish pair Richie Ramsay and Scott Jamieson also made a lengthy shortlist but it's two at huge prices to finish, OLIVER WILSON and DAAN HUIZING.

Both these two are former winners of the Irish Challenge and Huizing has in fact won twice on the island of Ireland, first at Galgorm Castle and then at Portmarnock, the latter a former Irish Open host venue.

Having captured both the Lytham Trophy and the St Andrews Trophy as an amateur (the same titles as Jordan), Huizing has always seemed best suited to this kind of golf and his fabulous short-game seems likely to be a big asset under the forecast conditions.

He'll need to improve but an opening 64 at Crans offers some encouragement and so much of his best form lately fits the bill: 10th at HimmerLand a year ago, 10th again in the Dunhill Links, 16th in Doha and then 16th again when the Tour went back there a few months later.

Huizing currently sits right on the Race to Dubai bubble and having done enough to survive in 2022 and 2023, one more big result is needed to make it a hat-trick. It might just come where he's always looked at home, where his short driving isn't an issue, and where the inherent randomness of links golf brings outsiders like him into the equation.

I'll split stakes between the outright and first-round leader markets, a nod to the fact that Huizing has a tendency to produce bursts of low opening rounds. In 2022, 2023 and already in 2024, he's been inside the top 10 at least twice in a run of three tournaments, so last week's 64 could be a sign of things to come.

Wilson meanwhile is a former Dunhill Links champion who has made five cuts in a row now, finishing a decent 27th in Denmark. Again, we need much more if he's to land some sort of return, but this is a player who has won at big odds more than once, who loves it when driver isn't the key club and when battling conditions is the big challenge.

He'd made four cuts in six prior to his HimmerLand win in 2022 (a week after I'd sided with him at Crans, sadly) and finishes of fifth and second at Doha give us enough to go on now that he's playing a little better. With both these two, nothing shorter than 250/1 would be considered worth taking.

The spectacle this week is chiefly to do with what is a remarkable golf course. For those betting, part of the pre-tournament agreement is that bad luck with the weather is just one of the many things that can go wrong when golf is being played in its purest form.

Who knows what Sunday will bring, but by then the Irish Open – rather, Royal County Down – will have delivered.

Posted at 1000 BST on 10/09/24

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