Scotland vs Croatia betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview

Football betting tips: Nations League

1.5pts Scotland to win (Draw No Bet) at 29/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Scott McTominay to score anytime at 18/5 (Betway)

0.5pt McTominay to score first at 10/1 (bet365, Betfair)

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• Scotland to win
• McTominay to score anytime
• Modric to be shown a card

Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday

TV channel: Viaplay International YouTube

• Scotland vs Croatia odds, form and stats in our new and improved live match centre

Scotland ended the last international period with a battling goalless draw at home to Portugal, breaking a run of four straight defeats and boosting their hopes of avoiding an immediate relegation back to the second tier of the Nations League.

Those hopes were further enhanced by news of direct rivals Poland losing Robert Lewandowski for their final two games, and Scotland captain John McGinn being among seven players to return to fitness for Steve Clarke's side.

It means for the first time in a while, the Tartan Army head into a fixture with plenty of reasons for optimism.

Avoid defeat against Croatia and - unless Poland win in Lisbon - Scotland will take their survival bid to Monday's final fixture in Warsaw.

For a fleeting moment I'm getting won over by the Nations League format, but just as my enthusiasm builds the fact this match is only being shown on Viaplay International YouTube quickly brings me back to reality.

What are the best bets?

While hard to imagine him ever being overjoyed, a clean sheet against Portugal will surely have even caused Clarke to crack a smile.

It was no fluke either.

Scotland allowed chances equating to 4.96 expected goals (xG) across their opening two Nations League fixtures, and although they conceded twice from 1.25 xG in defeat by Croatia in their third game, there were finally signs of defensive improvement.

Prior to keeping out Portugal, Clarke's side had kept only one clean sheet in their previous 15 attempts; a friendly against Gibraltar. That wretched run followed a record of five clean sheets in seven fixtures, solidity that formed the backbone of Scotland's recent success.

Portugal were not only kept out at Hampden, but limited to just one 'big chance' (xG > 0.30) and three shots on target.

Having taken the lead away from home against both Croatia and Portugal, and fighting back from 2-0 down only to lose to a 97th-minute penalty in their home game with Poland, SCOTLAND have been close throughout this campaign.

It's the right moment to back them TO WIN.

Call me cagey, but at the prices I'll also take the added insurance of DRAW NO BET given the importance of avoiding defeat, the pragmatic way in which Clarke usually approaches things, as well as the inescapable fact that Scotland's only win in their last 16 games was over Gibraltar.

(Mc)Totally behind Scott

For a match we expect to be low scoring, but with little value in associated markets, we're instead taking a 10/1 FIRST GOALSCORER in SCOTT MCTOMINAY.

The former Manchester United midfielder has adapted to life in Italy phenomenally well, adored by the Napoli supporters to such an extent they have quickly given him the nickname 'McTotally' to reflect his level of commitment on the pitch, commitment that has already delivered three goals in 10 appearances and helped his new club to the top of the Serie A table.

Since becoming Scotland's prime goal threat, McTominay has scored 10 times in 19 international games, accounting for 40% of their goals in that time. In this Nations League campaign he has already broken the deadlock away at Portugal and scored an equaliser at home to Poland.

Given his outstanding record, splitting our stake and backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME at a generous 18/5 is also advised.

Team news

Scotland welcome back McGinn, Stuart Armstrong, Scott McKenna, Jack Hendry, Greg Taylor, Lawrence Shankland and Tommy Conway after they missed the last international period, but are without Italian-based pair Che Adams and Lewis Ferguson.

Croatia are without suspended goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic and injured duo Lovro Majer and Bruno Petkovic.

Predicted line-ups

Scotland: Gordon; Ralston, Souttar, Hendry, Robertson; McLean, Gilmour; McGinn, McTominay, Doak; Dykes.

Croatia: Labrovic; Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Baturina, Kramaric; Matanovic.

Match facts

• Scotland went unbeaten across their first five meetings with Croatia (W2 D3) but have lost their most recent two games against the Croats, including last month in Zagreb (1-2).
• Croatia have never won away in Scotland (D2 L1), with this their first trip to Hampden Park since October 2013, losing 2-0 in a World Cup qualifier.
• Scotland are both on their longest ever winless run at home (6 games – D3 L3) and longest run without a victory in competitive fixtures (10 games - D4 L6); they could also now level their longest overall winless run, set in 1998 (9 games – D3 L5 currently).
• Only Greece (9) have won more games across the last two editions of the UEFA Nations League than Croatia (W7 D3 L2), who only won two of their 10 matches in the competition prior (D1 L7).
• Bosnia (73), Serbia (72) and Israel (69) are the only League A nations to face more shots in this season’s UEFA Nations League than Scotland (67), though after a 0-0 draw with Portugal last time out the Scots could keep back-to-back clean sheets for the first time since September 2023.
• Croatia have scored in each of their last 14 away games (29 goals), since blanking in three consecutive such matches between March and September 2021 – their previous longest streak was an 11-game run ending in September 2004.
• 19-year-old Ben Doak could make his fifth appearance for Scotland with his previous four all coming in the UEFA Nations League; only Paul McStay (6) and Willie Henderson (5) have made as many as five appearances in competitive fixtures as a teenager for the Tartan Army previously.
• Croatia’s Ivan Perisic has been directly involved in three goals in his last two appearances against Scotland (1 goal, 2 assists), although he hasn’t ever scored in 18 appearances in the UEFA Nations League.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (14/11/24)

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