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Jimmy's Punt: EFL tips, predictions and best bets for November 16
- Jimmy's Punt: Staked 94.5pts | Returned 93.66pts | P/L: -0.84pts | ROI -0.9%
Football betting tips: EFL
1pt Northampton to beat Blackpool at 9/2 (William Hill)
1pt Mitch Pinnock to score anytime in Northampton vs Blackpool at 19/2 (Unibet)
0.5pt Pinnock to score 2+ goals at 80/1 (bet365)
1pt No first goalscorer in Bromley vs Carlisle at 10/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Cheltenham to beat MK Dons at 15/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Ethon Archer to score anytime in Cheltenham vs MK Dons at 13/2 (bet365)
0.5pts Archer to score 2+ goals at 80/1 (bet365)
*All games kick off 3pm Saturday
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Swing and a miss in the last edition.
None of the nine tips went close, epitomised by the fact the player for Friday's first tip was ruled out, with the money returned for the void bet the highlight of the column. Now we’ve dipped back into the red. Sorry.
The international break does mean a severely reduced docket and with it a chance to delve into some new territory. Seven picks this weekend which includes outsiders in the 1X2, a lack of goals in League Two, some big-priced goalscorers and the return of generational wealth.
Blackpool vs Northampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Blackpool’s form this season makes a strong case for the new manager bounce theory.
Their only four Sky Bet League One wins came in a streak starting when Steve Bruce took the reins at Bloomfield Road.
In the 10 league games either side, the Tangerines have only taken four points.
The most recent defeat, 3-0 at Leyton Orient, didn’t make for pretty viewing. Defensively, Blackpool were left wanting and NORTHAMPTON will look to one particular ploy that bore fruit recently against the Tangerines.
Of the shots Blackpool have conceded this season, 18% have come down the left compared to 13% down the right. For reasons I don't quite understand, their opponents' right-sided players reap the rewards when they play with a back four.
In 14 league games this term, five of Blackpool’s opponents have played with a back four and at least one of their right sided players has scored in four of the games.
Both the O’s right-back and right midfielder Sonny Perkins and Thomas James scored last Saturday. The game before it was Wigan’s right midfielder Dion Rankine, Peterborough’s Kwame Poku the game before that and Gareth McCleary for Wycombe earlier in the season.
📮The Postman delivering yet again 👞
— Northampton Town (@ntfc)
Now considering MITCH PINNOCK scored the equaliser at St Andrews’ in the Cobblers' last game, netted seven in the third tier last season and has a career per 90 average of 0.18, the postman's price to SCORE ANYTIME and deliver again is a must at 19/2 with Unibet or 7/1 with bet365. As ever, the same goes for him TO SCORE 2+ at 80/1.
Jon Brady’s side may have only won one away domestically all season but their haul of six points looks respectable considering the opposition.
Their price TO WIN at an out-of-sorts Blackpool is also too big.
Bromley vs Carlisle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Iron Mike Williamson’s appointment as Carlisle manager was odd, stylistically, but sensible, logistically.
Williamson got to move closer to home, Carlisle got a promising manager and MK Dons didn’t have to pay off a man edging towards the sack anyway.
In reality, Williamson’s possession-based approach didn’t seem to marry up with the Cumbrians' squad or fanbase and this has rung true with the results so far, as his tenure has been predictably poor.
Williamson’s only league wins came in his first game in charge and his most recent one, a 2-0 win at Swindon and the 1-0 at Salford last weekend. Sandwiched between were seven games, five losses and 15 goals against.
What is interesting about the result at Salford was that Carlisle had less possession than their opponents for the first time since their win over Swindon. It suggests Iron Mike might be open to doing away with the awkward footballing style for want of results.
Carlisle scored with their only shot on target at the Peninsula, via a set-piece, and if that performance is a sign of things to come then more low-margin affairs should be expected.
Next up is a trip to Bromley and although the division's new boys' games are far from drab (2.4 goals per game), Andy Woodman’s side could be stifled by Carlisle’s new approach.
At 10/1, backing NO FIRST GOALSCORER appeals.
MK Dons vs Cheltenham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
MK Dons are flying under Scott Lindsey (W5 D2 L2) with their only league defeat since he took charge coming against Port Vale.
The underlying numbers paint MK in a good light as well but break them down fixture by fixture and it's enough to cast some doubt over their odds-on price this weekend.
In the games they have fallen behind in (Grimsby, Harrogate, Swindon) the Dons have gone on to win and with the onus on them, racked up shots and subsequent xG. But when the game is on a knife edge, the quality of chances they create leaves a lot to be desired.
In the win over Accrington, Lindsey’s side scored with their only two shots on target and didn’t have a shot over 0.12 xG. At Morecambe they had 17 shots but only one had an xG higher than 0.35 which is the threshold for a ‘big chance’. Against Port Vale the best shot had a value of 0.07 xG and against Tranmere it was 0.33.
That was basically a long winded way of suggesting MK Dons are due a loss.
Their next opponents CHELTENHAM have only lost two of their last eight, winning half, and the uptick in form coincides with a switch from a back five to a four.
Michael Flynn will relish the challenge of going to one of the title favourites. The Robins recently got one over League One Rotherham in the FA Cup and drew at Chesterfield earlier in the season.
I could certainly see the away side getting a result on Saturday and backing TO WIN is the bet.
ETHON ARCHER will play a big part for the visitors. The midfielder has five goals and three assists in 13 starts this season, all bar one coming in his last seven appearances.
Since nailing down a starting spot, the 22-year-old is clearly relishing the responsibility and both his price TO SCORE ANYTIME and SCORE 2+ take my fancy.
Generational wealth
With two chunkily priced goalscorers touted, it would be negligible not to put them in an anytime double and a brace double just in case. Only very small stakes though of course.
- Pinnock & Archer anytime goalscorer at 59/1 with bet365
- Pinnock & Archer 2+ goals each at 6560/1 with bet365
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (14/11/24)
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