Premier League Darts 2024: Finals night play-off predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and Sky Sports TV time

Darts betting tips: Premier League Finals Night

1pt Michael Smith to beat Luke Littler at 2/1 (betway, bet365)

1pt Littler and Smith to both have a checkout of 120+ at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Littler v Smith to have 12+ 180s and 3+ 100 checkouts at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Luke Humphries to beat Michael van Gerwen and hit most 180s at 11/10 (Sky Bet)

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Thursday May 23: Finals Night

• TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
• Format: Semi-Finals, best of 19 legs (Followed by the final, which is best of 21 legs)
• Venue: O2, London

Luke Littler v Michael Smith

• Head to Head: 2-5 (TV: 2-5)
• 2024 PL Average: 99.20 - 96.45
• 2024 PL 180s per leg: 0.34 - 0.31
• 2024 PL checkout percentage: 39.10% - 39.26%
• 2024 PL legs won with 100+ C/O: 10.92% - 14.18%

Whatever happens to Luke Littler tonight, he's enjoyed a truly remarkable debut season that has breathed new life into the Premier League.

His weekly sparks of brilliance - including last week's blockbuster TOPS-TOPS-TOPS checkout - have kept the fans entertained and glued to a format that most fans would still love to change in the future.

Littler has averaged almost 100 across 336 legs of Premier League darts, hit more 180s (114) than anyone and, more importantly, became just the fourth player behind Phil Taylor, Michael van Gerwen and Glen Durrant to top the regular season table on their debut. At 17 years of age, that's simply incredible - but it speaks volumes that nobody seems that shocked about it. We're already conditioned to expecting him to win titles and consistently produce fireworks even just six months into his life as PDC pro.

However, his 'reward' for finishing top is a semi-final with a player who has beaten him more than anyone else this year - Michael Smith.

Bully Boy defeated him for the fifth time out of seven meetings in Sheffield last week en route to winning his second night of the season and you have to think he's peaking at just the right time.

Smith has won 15 of his last 18 matches in all competitions, which included the Players Championship 9 title earlier this month, and although the St Helens ace is not consistently firing in the 100 averages as much as he'd like to, he's still trending in the right direction and probably feeling pretty confident about his chances.

I fancy Smith to upset the scriptwriters and book his place in the final but I am expecting plenty of 180s from two prolific maximum hitters and also some show stopping 100+ checkouts.

They've combined for 41 of those throughout the campaign, with Smith winning 14.18% of his legs that way (21) while 17 of them have been finishes of 120 or over, including a pair of 170 finishes, whereas Littler has managed 13 in that range, including one Big Fish.

Verdict: 7-10

Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen

• Head to Head Overall: 11-13 (TV: 9-7)
• Head to Head in 2024: 6-1 (TV: 4-1)
• 2024 PL Average: 100.46 - 98.10
• 2024 PL 180s per leg: 0.36 - 0.28
• 2024 PL checkout percentage: 41.42% - 41.50%
• 2024 PL legs won with 100+ C/O: 10.65% - 9.72%

Luke Humphries may not have topped the Premier League table on debut but he did create his own impressive piece of history by becoming the first player to average over 100 in this current format.

Phil Taylor, Michael van Gerwen, Dave Chisnall, Gary Anderson, Dimitri Van den Bergh and Jose de Sousa all managed it in the old 16-match season but Cool Hand achieved it across 33 matches and 298 legs. It's an especially great achievement when you consider most weeks he had to keep coming out for multiple matches and maintained such a blistering standard.

In all competitions he's won nine of his last 11 matches following a little blip in form and has managed six 100+ averages in that run so he's certainly a worthy favourite to see off seven-time champion MVG, who is bidding for a record-extending eighth title.

Humphries has won their last six meetings, including four in the Premier League and an 8-1 trouncing in a European Tour final, so over this slightly longer format I do expect him to cruise through with relative ease.

That's not to disrespect MVG, especially because he has managed six 100+ averages in his last 11 games but there's still too much inconsistency and even when he fired 101.55 against Humphries last week, he still lost 6-3.

Humphries is also a far more prolific 180 hitter than MVG (0.36 per leg v 0.28) so he should dominate that battle over a best-of-19 leg match as well.

Verdict: 10-6

Who will win the Premier League?

Most darts fans will expect to see another instalment of Luke Littler v Luke Humphries, which would of course be a rematch of the World Championship final.

Since then, Littler won their next six meetings across the World Series, Premier League and ProTour until Cool Hand finally stopped the rot with a deciding leg victory in a European Tour encounter last month.

He definitely needed that to erase any kind of mental block that was building up and it could well prove crucial if they meet in the climax of the Premier League season, with £275,000 up for grabs for the winner.

Performance-wise there isn't obviously much at all between them but Humphries just about shades the stats in recent weeks and that's who I expect to see holding the trophy aloft on Thursday night.

My predicted final is Smith v Humphries but even in that scenario, I'm still going with the world number one.

Premier League: Table and seasonal statistics

Premier League Darts 2024: Averages, 180s and checkout statistics

TOURNAMENT AVERAGE After week 16

• Luke Humphries: 100.46
• Luke Littler: 99.20
• Gerwyn Price: 98.41
• Michael van Gerwen: 98.10
• Rob Cross: 97.38
• Michael Smith: 96.45
• Nathan Aspinall: 95.73
• Peter Wright: 93.02

MOST 180s & 180s PER LEG After week 16

• Luke Littler: 114 (336 legs, 0.34 per leg)
• Luke Humphries: 107 (298 legs, 0.36)
• Michael Smith: 93 (298 legs, 0.31)
• Michael van Gerwen: 79 (280 legs, 0.28)
• Nathan Aspinall: 74 (282 legs, 0.26)
• Gerwyn Price: 65 (217 legs, 0.30)
• Rob Cross: 55 (245 legs, 0.22)
• Peter Wright: 43 (165 legs, 0.26)

DOUBLES AND CHECKOUT PERCENTAGE After week 16

• Michael van Gerwen: 41.50% (144/347)
• Luke Humphries: 41.42% (169/408)
• Rob Cross: 41.07% (115/280)
• Gerwyn Price: 40.60% (95/234)
• Michael Smith: 39.26% (148/377)
• Luke Littler: 39.10% (183/468)
• Nathan Aspinall: 36.29% (143/394)
• Peter Wright: 35.47% (61/172)

100+ CHECKOUTS, HIGHEST CHECKOUTS & % LEGS WON WITH 100+ CHECKOUT After week 16

• Michael Smith: 21 (14.18% legs won with 100+ checkout)
  100+ Checkouts: 170x2, 156, 146x2, 140, 138, 136x2, 132, 125, 122x2, 120x4, 117, 113, 107x2
• Luke Littler: 20 (10.92% )
  100+ Checkouts: 170, 164, 146, 144, 140, 138, 136x2, 131, 130, 125, 124, 120, 111, 110, 108, 107, 105, 103, 100
• Luke Humphries: 18 (10.65%)
  100+ Checkouts: 170, 167, 148, 143, 142, 132, 130x2, 124, 121x2, 120, 117, 116, 108, 106, 105, 104
• Nathan Aspinall: 16 (11.18%)
  100+ Checkouts: 170, 160x2, 144, 127, 122, 121x2, 120, 114, 110, 108, 106, 104, 100x2
• Michael van Gerwen: 14 (9.72%)
  100+ Checkouts: 152, 150, 149, 144, 136, 132, 127, 125x2, 120, 110, 108, 107, 100
• Rob Cross: 14 (12.17%)
  100+ Checkouts: 144x2, 132, 129, 121x2, 117, 116x2, 110, 109, 104, 102, 100
• Gerwyn Price: 13 (13.68%)
  100+ Checkouts: 170, 160, 141, 124, 120x2, 117x2, 115x2, 103, 101, 100
• Peter Wright: 3 (4.91%)
  100+ Checkouts: 156, 130, 111

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