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Free darts betting tips & odds: Michael van Gerwen should win the German Darts Grand Prix but where does the value lie?
Michael van Gerwen is hot favourite to win the German Darts Grand Prix but our Chris Hammer believes there is some value to be had in taking him on.
The sleepless nights clearly aren't bothering MVG... yet.
The world number one made his return to the oche last weekend for the first time since the birth of his first child Zoe and showed few signs of mental fatigue or the distraction of pending nappy changes as he romped to his fourth successive Dutch Darts Masters title.
Van Gerwen dropped only nine legs in his four matches and five of those came against Daryl Gurney in a hard-fought quarter-final, while his lowest match average was 99.59 in a 6-1 win over Steve Beaton in the final and his highest was 107.60 as he thrashed in-form Kyle Anderson by the same scoreline.
The last time we'd seen MVG in action was, of course, his humbling 16-6 defeat at the hands of Phil Taylor at the World Matchplay, but Zoe's timely arrival meant he took a short break from the game and he subsequently missed the World Series of Darts events in Auckland, Melbourne and Perth.
While the first few weeks of fatherhood is hardly easy, especially once the initial joy has been drowned out by baby screams, I think we can safely assume he's spent most of those sleepless nights spending more hours on the practice board. Preferably with Zoe out of range from an unfortunate bounce out.
He recently spoke of his extra motivation - as if he needed any more - to win for his family but more importantly his sharpness certainly hadn't deserted him last weekend as he justified his odds-on favourtism.
Afterwards he told the : "I had a fantastic holiday and the month off with my wife and child. It's been a fantastic time and to kick off after my holiday straight away with a win is a dream."
Unsurprisingly he's odds-on to claim his 12th PDC title of the season at the inaugural German Darts Grand Prix but given the best-of-11 format for all matches, he's not immune from a shock from time to time and his half of the draw includes the likes of Gerwyn Price, Jelle Klaasen and Dave Chisnall. (Click here for the full tournament draw)
If MVG does indeed reach the final then he'll be widely expected to meet the man who is second to him for tournaments won this season with nine - Peter Wright.
The UK Open champion and runner-up in both the Premier League and World Matchplay does enjoy playing in Germany having claimed four of those nine titles there, including 6-3 and 6-0 drubbings of MVG in the Hildesheim and Sindelfingen finals respectively.
Van Gerwen got his revenge by defeating Snakebite in the Premier League final but only after his opponent missed no fewer than six darts at a double for the biggest victory of his career - the pair haven't met since.
Wright is 5/1 but he didn't look too hot en route to the semi-finals last weekend, where he averaged 95.27 in a 6-4 defeat to Beaton, so I'm instead going to take an each-way chance on 16/1 shot Daryl Gurney.
Gurney of course delivered us profits in the World Matchplay when reaching the semi-finals before agonisingly losing 17-15 to Wright just when I sensed an 80/1 each-way success.
The high-scoring Northern Irishman was left waiting on 40 to defeat MVG last weekend only for the Dutchman to finish 76 for a 12-darter in the deciding leg but he's in the opposite half of the draw in Germany and has consistently proven this season how close he's getting to the established stars of the sport.
His five final appearances this year have only been surpassed by MVG (15), Wright (15) and Anderson (9) while it's only van Gerwen and Snakebite who have reached more than his 13 semis.
Gurney has also defeated Wright twice in their last four meetings - 8-7 at the US Darts Masters and 10-4 in Perth - and I'd be confident of him making that three should they clash in the semi-finals.
The other players in this half of the draw who have also reached European Tour or major tournament finals this year are Mensur Suljovic (20/1), Benito van de Pas (50/1) and Mervyn King (80/1), while Beaton obviously upset the odds last week to be a surprise runner-up.
Alan Norris, who is 66/1 this weekend, was a while he's continued to prove how dangerous he can be by reaching the UK Open semi-finals and the World Matchplay quarter-finals. So don't rule him out if you think a big outsider can work their way through the draw this weekend.
Recommended bet: German Darts Grand Prix
1pt e.w. Daryl Gurney to win the German Darts Grand Prix at 16/1 (1/2 1,2)
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Posted at 1030 BST on 08/09/17